Chuck Martin

Head coach · Miami (OH)
13th season · since 2014

At Miami (OH)77-78since 2014 · 5-4 this seasonHot seatHot25% · 13th of 132 jobsLast gameL 31-34vs Buffalo · Nov 4
Nextvs OhioTue Nov 10 · 7 pm ET · ESPN2
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

Miami (OH) led by 15, was as high as 100% in the fourth quarter, and still lost.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 2-5

2016St. Petersburg BowlL 16-172019LendingTree BowlL 17-272021Frisco Football ClassicW 27-142022Bahamas BowlL 20-242023Cure BowlL 9-132024Arizona BowlW 43-172025Arizona BowlL 3-18

This week Wed Nov 4

  • This season5-4
  • Hot seat25% 13th of 132
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextvs. Ohio Tue Nov 10
  • Stature85th of 138 FBS programs

Miami (OH) led by 15, was as high as 100% in the fourth quarter, and still lost.

Buffalo6-334
Miami (OH)5-431Final
Tue, Nov 3 · Yager Stadium, Oxford, Ohio · 67°, cloudyESPN

Lost as a 6.5-point favorite.

18 unansweredBuffalo · OT
FinalMiami (OH) 31-34 BuffaloMiami (OH) lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT89% at halfMiami (OH)BuffaloLost31-34123−20−21Scores18 unanswered4th and 3 at Miami (OH) own 26: Punted4th and 5 at the Buffalo 49: Punted4th and 2 at the Buffalo 17: Kicked a field goal4th and 2 at the Buffalo 35: Went for it: converted4th and 8 at the Buffalo 24: Missed a field goal4th and 15 at the Buffalo 39: Punted4th and 17 at Miami (OH) own 18: Punted4th and 12 at the Buffalo 27: Missed a field goal
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT89% at halfMiami (OH)BuffaloLost31-34123Scores18 unanswered4th and 3 at Miami (OH) own 26: Punted4th and 5 at the Buffalo 49: Punted4th and 2 at the Buffalo 17: Kicked a field goal4th and 2 at the Buffalo 35: Went for it: converted4th and 8 at the Buffalo 24: Missed a field goal4th and 15 at the Buffalo 39: Punted4th and 17 at Miami (OH) own 18: Punted4th and 12 at the Buffalo 27: Missed a field goal

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 1:35Wright 2-yd TD run, ties it 31-31Miami (OH) 87% → 67% (−20)
  2. 2Q4 0:32Shelton 4-yd runMiami (OH) 67% → 46% (−21)
  3. 3OTMcLaughlin 45-yd field goal no goodMiami (OH) 38% → 0% (−38)
Miami (OH)’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Miami (OH) -6.5), at 73% for Miami (OH) (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Best Miami (OH) lines

  • Caleb Heavner12 of 23, 154 yards, 1 TD
  • D'Shawntae Jones17 carries, 112 yards
  • Braylon Isom7 catches, 89 yards, 1 TD
  • Maleek Huggins3 catches, 42 yards
  • Malcolm Mccain11 tackles
  • Roosevelt Andrews III7 tackles, 1 sack

His fourth-down calls

10 of 10 matched what most FBS coaches do in that spot (FBS play-by-play, 2014–25: the same distance and quarter, within 5 yards; not the score or the clock).

  1. Q2 0:28 · up 8

    4th & 2, opp 17

    Kicked a field goal

    50% of FBS coaches go for it there

  2. Q2 0:54 · up 8

    4th & 2, opp 35

    Went for it · converted

    88% of FBS coaches go for it there

  3. Q4 5:10 · up 7

    4th & 15, opp 39

    Punted

    32% of FBS coaches go for it there

Also 5 punts and 2 missed field goals where most FBS coaches kick too.

Is he getting fired?

25% chance he’s out after the season · 13th of 132 FBS head coaches · Hot

Before Buffalo: 19%. Had they won: 16%.

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow16% had they won16% had they wonLoss 28%Win 19%23%33%30%33%27%35%29%24%20%25%Pre1L at PittsburghL2W vs. Holy CrossW3L at CincinnatiL4W vs. UConnW5L vs. Bowling GreenL6W at MassachusettsW7W vs. AkronW8W at Central MichiganW9L vs. BuffaloL10Chance to win vs. Ohio40%11Chance to win at Kent State76%12Chance to win at Western Michigan27%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow16% had they wonLoss 28%Win 19%23%25%Pre36912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 5-736%
  2. 6-626%
  3. 7-517%
  4. 8-410%

The case for a change

  • 1-7against AP top-25 teams here, 0-2 against the top 10

The case for patience

  • 3straight wins over Kent State. Next meeting: week 12, on the road.
  • 77wins here, the most by any Miami (OH) coach since 1962 (19 more than anyone)

Facts from his record in this job, both ways. No verdict.

Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20142016201820202022202420262014, week 3 (3 games in): 8%, 35th-hottest of 95 FBS jobs2014, week 4 (4 games in): 9%, 48th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2014, week 5 (5 games in): 9.9%, 43rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 6 (6 games in): 8%, 52nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 7 (7 games in): 9%, 47th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 8 (8 games in): 9%, 44th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 9 (9 games in): 9%, 45th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 10 (10 games in): 9.6%, 41st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 11 (10 games in): 9.6%, 41st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 12 (11 games in): 9.7%, 41st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 13 (11 games in): 9.7%, 39th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 14 (12 games in): 9.9%, 40th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 15 (12 games in): 9.9%, 40th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 16 (12 games in): 9.9%, 40th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 3 (3 games in): 33%, 7th-hottest of 115 FBS jobs2015, week 4 (4 games in): 34%, 11th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 5 (5 games in): 38%, 9th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 6 (6 games in): 42%, 8th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 7 (7 games in): 44%, 7th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 8 (8 games in): 43%, 8th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 9 (9 games in): 45%, 7th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 10 (10 games in): 42%, 9th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 11 (11 games in): 43%, 7th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 12 (12 games in): 40%, 10th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 13 (12 games in): 40%, 11th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 14 (12 games in): 40%, 11th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 15 (12 games in): 40%, 11th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 3 (3 games in): 39%, 7th-hottest of 113 FBS jobs2016, week 4 (4 games in): 40%, 8th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 5 (5 games in): 45%, 7th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 6 (6 games in): 47%, 5th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 7 (7 games in): 41%, 8th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 8 (8 games in): 35%, 10th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 9 (9 games in): 29%, 14th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 10 (10 games in): 25%, 16th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 11 (11 games in): 22%, 20th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 12 (11 games in): 22%, 20th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 13 (12 games in): 19.6%, 23rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 14 (12 games in): 19.6%, 22nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 15 (12 games in): 19.6%, 22nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2017, week 3 (3 games in): 23%, 20th-hottest of 105 FBS jobs2017, week 4 (4 games in): 19.9%, 26th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2017, week 5 (5 games in): 23%, 23rd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 6 (6 games in): 29%, 18th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 7 (7 games in): 30%, 17th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 8 (8 games in): 26%, 19th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 9 (8 games in): 26%, 17th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 10 (9 games in): 27%, 15th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 11 (10 games in): 24%, 19th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 12 (11 games in): 27%, 17th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 13 (12 games in): 23%, 19th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 14 (12 games in): 23%, 19th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 15 (12 games in): 23%, 19th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2018, week 3 (3 games in): 38%, 7th-hottest of 110 FBS jobs2018, week 4 (4 games in): 34%, 12th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 5 (5 games in): 34%, 12th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 6 (6 games in): 28%, 18th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 7 (7 games in): 24%, 24th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 8 (8 games in): 27%, 20th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 9 (8 games in): 27%, 22nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 10 (9 games in): 29%, 17th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 11 (10 games in): 25%, 21st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 12 (11 games in): 19%, 28th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 13 (12 games in): 16%, 29th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 14 (12 games in): 16%, 29th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 15 (12 games in): 16%, 29th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 3 (3 games in): 34%, 7th-hottest of 106 FBS jobs2019, week 4 (4 games in): 34%, 13th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2019, week 5 (5 games in): 31%, 16th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 6 (5 games in): 31%, 17th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 7 (6 games in): 33%, 15th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 8 (7 games in): 26%, 18th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 9 (8 games in): 21%, 25th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 10 (8 games in): 21%, 24th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 11 (9 games in): 14%, 33rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 12 (10 games in): 14%, 36th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 13 (11 games in): 13%, 35th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 14 (12 games in): 16%, 27th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 15 (12 games in): 16%, 27th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2020, week 13 (3 games in): 4%, 74th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2020, week 14 (3 games in): 4%, 76th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2020, week 15 (3 games in): 4%, 72nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2020, week 16 (3 games in): 4%, 68th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2021, week 3 (3 games in): 25%, 22nd-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 26%, 20th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 21%, 27th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (6 games in): 24%, 21st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (7 games in): 19.8%, 26th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (8 games in): 15%, 32nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): 15%, 33rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 16%, 29th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 15%, 32nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 14%, 38th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): 15%, 28th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): 15%, 28th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): 15%, 28th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 30%, 16th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 25%, 23rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 27%, 20th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 25%, 20th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): 29%, 13th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (8 games in): 34%, 10th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (9 games in): 32%, 14th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 32%, 13th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 34.5%, 11th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 29%, 14th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 25%, 18th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 25%, 18th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 25%, 18th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 22%, 22nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 19.6%, 27th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 14%, 42nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 11%, 47th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (7 games in): 9%, 53rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (8 games in): 11%, 46th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (9 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 6%, 56th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 5%, 59th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 4%, 63rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 63rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 63rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (3 games in): 37%, 9th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 32%, 14th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 31%, 17th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 26%, 22nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 20%, 27th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 18%, 26th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 18%, 26th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 15%, 29th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 14%, 33rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 10%, 39th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 7%, 46th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 7%, 46th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 7%, 46th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 26%, 15th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 23%, 20th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 19%, 27th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 19%, 24th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 14%, 35th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 12%, 36th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 12%, 36th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 14%, 31st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 16%, 28th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 12%, 33rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 10%, 36th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 10%, 36th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 10%, 36th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 33%, 7th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 27%, 18th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 35%, 11th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 29%, 14th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 24%, 15th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 19.8%, 22nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 19%, 25th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (9 games in): 25%, 13th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2016, week 6▲ 0-6, outscored by 74Every season ended Cool, 2023–2024

Hottest: 2016, week 6 (47%, 5th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 0-6, outscored by 74

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 13 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters. History alone points the other way: of 209 past coaches in year 10 or later at this point in a season, 5% were pushed out over results, against 13% of 1,443 in years 3–9.

  • ▲ Hotter
    $2.2M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 2.0× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▼ Cooler
    5-4, outscoring opponents by 7

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-4 after 9 games
6% pushed out over results · of 451 coaches
Were in year 10 or later, after 9 games
5% pushed out over results · of 209 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$2,250,000 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 2.0× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 13%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Offense: 65th of 138 per play. Defense: 78th.

Offense, per play65thOffense, starting field position4thDefense, per play78thDefense, big plays allowed121stWorstBest
Offense, per play65th of 138Offense, starting field position4th of 138Defense, per play78th of 138Defense, big plays allowed121st of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Miami (OH). The other two rows are where Miami (OH) stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Tue Nov 10vs. Ohio (7-2)ESPN40%
  2. Tue Nov 17at Kent State (3-6)76%
  3. Tue Nov 24at Western Michigan (6-3)27%

Percent: Miami (OH)’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Miami (OH) stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

77th83rd89thPreseason81stPittsburgh L 14-59Pittsburgh L 14-59L 14-59Pittsburgh82ndHoly Cross W 45-7Holy Cross W 45-7W 45-7Holy Cross82ndCincinnati L 31-35Cincinnati L 31-35L 31-35Cincinnati82ndUConn W 24-21UConn W 24-21W 24-21UConn81stBowling Green L 20-24Bowling Green L 20-24L 20-24Bowling Green83rdMassachusetts W 20-19Massachusetts W 20-19W 20-19Massachusetts83rdAkron W 34-14Akron W 34-14W 34-14Akron84thCentral Michigan W 28-27Central Michigan W 28-27W 28-27Central Michi…84thBuffalo L 31-34Buffalo L 31-34L 31-34Buffalo85thBye85th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25W 28-27 at Central Michigan0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 34-14 vs. Akron0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11W 20-19 at Massachusetts0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 20-24 vs. Bowling Green0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 24-21 vs. UConn0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Report card

Below the median on both sides of the ball — 40th percentile offense, 49th percentile defense.

Miami (OH), every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

C
of which —40th
efficiency — 40th percentile success rate, 2014–25
C-38th
Standard-downs success
C+45th
Passing-downs success
B-50th
Trench push (line yards)
B-51st
Red-zone scoring rate
C43rd
Power-success (short yardage)
B66th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C+
of which —49th
49th percentile SP+ defense, 2014–25
B-58th
Front-7 havoc
B+74th
Secondary havoc
C44th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C+48th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.