Buffalo upsets Miami (OH) 34-31 in overtime
Team pages: Buffalo · Miami (OH)
Buffalo beat Miami (OH) 34-31 in overtime as a 6.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 1%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 1% or less in about 1 of every 685 games since 2018.
We had Miami (OH) favored. Buffalo won.
Next: Buffalo at Ball State, Wed Nov 11
Next: Miami (OH) vs Ohio, Tue Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: McLaughlin 45-yd field goal no good (OT). Buffalo went from 62% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Buffalo a 33% chance, and the closing betting line (Buffalo was a 6.5-point underdog) put it at 30%.
Buffalo · OTBuffalo 34-31 Miami (OH)
Buffalo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Miami (OH) 31-34 BuffaloMiami (OH) lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:35Wright 2-yd TD run, ties it 31-31Buffalo 13% → 33% (+20)
- 2OTMcLaughlin 45-yd field goal no goodBuffalo 62% → 100% (+38)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:35Wright 2-yd TD run, ties it 31-31Miami (OH) 87% → 67% (−20)
- 2OTMcLaughlin 45-yd field goal no goodMiami (OH) 38% → 0% (−38)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Miami (OH) -6.5), at 27% for Buffalo (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Buffalo scored on 6 of its 14 drives; Miami (OH) on 4 of its 12.
Buffalo’s drives are teal, Miami (OH)’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Miami (OH)’s side
Miami (OH)’s best moment: Hautanen 27-yd field goal, Buffalo goes ahead 34-31 (OT). It lifted Miami (OH)’s win chance by 16 points.
The winner was given almost no chance at its low point.
What it cost
Miami (OH)’s chance to win the conference fell from 9% to 3%.
Win the conference
Before the game (November 3, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Buffalo plays at Ball State on Wed Nov 11 with a 4% chance to win the conference. Miami (OH) plays vs Ohio on Tue Nov 10 with a 3% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Buffalo 34, Miami (OH) 31
Buffalo covered +6.5 by 9.5. The total, 65, went over 45.5.
| Team totals | Buffalo | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 459 | 350 |
| Passing | 22 of 46, 358 yds | 12 of 23, 154 yds |
| Rushing | 33 for 101 yds | 48 for 196 yds |
| First downs | 29 | 23 |
| Third down | 6 of 14 | 5 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | 6 for 56 yds | 13 for 104 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:24 | 32:36 |
Buffalo leaders
- Passing Jason Wright 22 of 46, 358 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Messiah Burch 14 for 56 yds; Terrance Shelton Jr. 12 for 41 yds
- Receiving Chance Morrow 12 for 199 yds, 2 TD; Dwayne Early Jr. 4 for 80 yds
Miami (OH) leaders
- Passing Caleb Heavner 12 of 23, 154 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing D'Shawntae Jones 17 for 112 yds; Rodney Nelson 12 for 45 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Braylon Isom 7 for 89 yds, 1 TD; Maleek Huggins 3 for 42 yds
No rain through the game
70° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 53°, with about 7 in 10 games between 39° and 66°.
Game-day temperatures at Yager Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Oxford airport, 3.0 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Buffalo · 5-3
Rated 134th in our preseason ratings, 131st now.
Three straight wins, including a 15-point win over Toledo as an 18.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Miami (OH) · 5-3
Rated 78th in our preseason ratings, 96th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Week by week
Miami (OH)
- Wk 4Wvs UConn24-21
- Wk 5Lvs Bowling Green20-24
- Wk 6Wat Massachusetts20-19
- Wk 7Wvs Akron34-14
- Wk 8Wat Central Michigan28-27
Buffalo
- Wk 4Wvs Robert Morris31-28
- Wk 5Lvs Western Michigan17-20
- Wk 6Wat Toledo23-8
- Wk 7Wvs Massachusetts25-18
- Wk 8Wvs Bowling Green31-24
Power rating by week
Miami (OH) is rated 2.9 points ahead as of week 9. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Buffalo’s success rate against Miami (OH), 40 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Buffalo’s success rate against Miami (OH)’s defense
Buffalo offense, 4th percentile · Miami (OH) defense, 44th
Miami (OH)’s explosive plays against Buffalo’s defense
Miami (OH) offense, 89th percentile · Buffalo defense, 55th
Buffalo’s rushing EPA against Miami (OH)’s defense
Buffalo offense, 33rd percentile · Miami (OH) defense, 72nd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Miami (OH) leads the series 17-9
26 meetings since 1999 · Miami (OH) has won the last 2
- 2025Miami (OH) 37-20
- 2023Miami (OH) 23-10
- 2022Buffalo 24-20
- 2021Miami (OH) 45-18
- 2020Buffalo 42-10
Each line is Miami (OH)’s chance to win through that meeting. Miami (OH) is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Buffalo fans are in a better mood than Miami (OH) fans (90th percentile vs 39th among FBS fanbases), even with Miami (OH) favored.
Miami (OH) favored by 6.5 · Total 45.5
How games like this usually go
Miami (OH) by 6.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Miami (OH) is worth +6.1 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 84th percentile.
71% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (27-11 home, 24-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±5.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 392 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Miami (OH)5th3-1
- Buffalo3rd3-1