CFB Zeitgeist Score
62
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 100th percentile.
Liam Szarka
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,294 PASS YDS · 9 PASS TD · 922 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Air Force for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Quarterback · Air Force
Returning around him
- 63% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- Transfer portal: -4 net (0 in / 4 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Air Force · Last season: 4-8 · 2026 recruiting class #129
QB · AIR FORCE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Liam Szarka
- 2
- #9
- 6-0 | 195 lb
- Aurora, CO
Heisman Heat
Awaiting
Not on the live Heisman board this week.
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
—
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Air Force
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens
Where the model places this player relative to the rest of the Heisman field.
Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (922).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Liam Szarka
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Liam Szarka
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 10g
1,294Pass yards
9Pass TDs
5INT
Per game
129.4Pass yards
1Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
1,682Pass yards
12Pass TDs
6INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 1,294): needs 568.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 1,294): needs 902/game over remaining 3.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 9): needs 5.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 9): needs 7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 9): needs 8.7/game over remaining 3.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Liam Szarka's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Air Force, he has 1,294 passing yards and 9 touchdown passes, but he also adds 922 rushing yards and 13 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Steady volume | Vertical threat | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
75 61st
ATT
120 63rd
CMP%
62.5% 55th
Y/A
10.8 93rd
Passing Production
YDS
1,294 67th
TD
9 71st
INT
5 32nd
Rushing
CAR
190 99th
YDS
922 98th
YPC
4.9 76th
TD
13 98th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 49-13vs Bucknell | 2/2 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 23.5 | 96.8 | |
| Wk 3 | L 30-49@ Utah State | 6/14 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 4.8 | 34.9 | |
| Wk 4 | L 37-49vs Boise State | 13/18 | 246 | 2 | 1 | 13.7 | 93.9 | |
| Wk 5 | L 35-44vs Hawai'i | 10/12 | 278 | 3 | 1 | 23.2 | 88.5 | Season-high 278 yds |
| Wk 6 | L 31-34@ Navy | 11/19 | 212 | 2 | 0 | 11.2 | 80.7 | |
| Wk 7 | L 48-51@ UNLV | 10/17 | 175 | 1 | 0 | 10.3 | 79.3 | |
| Wk 8 | W 24-21vs Wyoming | 3/8 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 4.1 | 47.7 | |
| Wk 10 | L 17-20vs Army | 13/17 | 161 | 0 | 2 | 9.5 | 49.3 | |
| Wk 11 | W 26-16@ San José State | 5/10 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 4.1 | 33.6 | |
| Wk 12 | L 16-26@ UConn | 2/3 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 11.3 | 5.7 | |
| Total | 75/120 | 1294 | 9 | 5 | 11.6 | 61.0 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Air Force4-8HC: Troy Calhoun · Run-heavy
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Air Force | 75 | 120 | 62.5% | 1,294 | 10.8 | 9 | 5 | 169.5 | -- | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 75 | 120 | 62.5% | 1,294 | 10.8 | 9 | 5 | 169.5 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Air Force | 190 | 922 | 4.9 | 13 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 190 | 922 | 4.9 | 13 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 1,294 | #127/382 | 67th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 9 | #117/407 | 71st pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 75 | #149/383 | 61st pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 62.5% | #172/383 | 55th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 10.8 | #29/382 | 93rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 922 | #8/408 | 98th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.54 | #5/200 | 98th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 129 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 43.8% | #130/428 | 70th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 120 | #153/407 | 63rd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 5 | #276/407 | 32nd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 190 | #5/408 | 99th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 64 | #14/391 | 97th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 13 | #10/408 | 98th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.9 | #100/407 | 76th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 80.4% | #114/428 | 74th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 61.3% | #101/428 | 77th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 55.9% | #123/428 | 71st pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 46.5% | #107/428 | 75th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 38.1% | #118/428 | 73rd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 35.9% | #130/428 | 70th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 33.3% | #10/428 | 98th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.27 | #58/140 | 59th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 184 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #163/258 | 37th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 153 | 1.0 | 14.8 | 0.8 |
| Road5g | 106 | 0.8 | 8.3 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 40.3 | 0.3 | 10.6 | 0.0 |
| Losses7g | 168 | 1.1 | 12.0 | 0.7 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 171 | 1.3 | 14.5 | 0.5 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 67.2 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 0.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
62Solid starter
Elite: yards / att (99th). Strength: rush yards (95th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds28%of completions
15 comp5.3 yds avg2 TD
Middle
10–19 yds37%of completions
20 comp14.2 yds avg3 TD
Deep
20+ yds35%of completions
19 comp37.4 yds avg3 TD
Overall 61.4% completion on 88 attempts · 19 deep completions averaging 37.4 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2025
Percentile Card
Elite: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.54Elite (≥p90) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.27Low (p25–p50) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Liam SzarkaAir ForceBryson BarnesUtah State· 76% simHaynes KingGeorgia Tech· 75% simBear BachmeierBYU· 74% sim
Yards / att
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Interceptions
Completion %
Fumbles lost
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Dual Threat
Dangerous with both arm and legs — defenses can't just pin the ears back.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Haaziq Daniels’s 2021 season.
Haaziq Daniels
39%match
#2
Timmy McClain
36%
#3
Blake Horvath
All-AAC
33%
#4
Bryson Daily
All-AAC
28%
#5
John Rhys Plumlee
28%
Differs from Haaziq on
Completion % (higher)
INT rate (higher)
TD rate (higher)
Through 1 college season, his career arc tracks closest to Lindsey Scott Jr.’s path through Incarnate Word.
Lindsey Scott Jr.
66%match
#2
Kyle Trask
1st-team All-AmericanNFL Rd 2 · Pk 32
53%
#3
C.J. Stroud
NFL Rd 1 · Pk 2
51%
#4
Jalen Milroe
CampbellAll-SECNFL Rd 3 · Pk 28
50%
#5
Trinidad Chambliss
50%
Matches Lindsey on
Completion %
Differs from Lindsey on
Yards per attempt (higher)
As a freshman, his production profile tracks closest to Jaylen Raynor's freshman season at Arkansas State (2023).
Jaylen Raynor
22%match
All-Sun Belt
#2
Cardell Williams
22%
#3
Anthony Colandrea
All-Mountain West
20%
#4
Caleb Williams
19%
#5
Layne Hatcher
7%
Differs from Jaylen on
Rush usage (higher)
Yards / attempt (higher)
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Troy Calhoun
Pass share
20.0%
163 pass / 650 run
Plays / game
67.8
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
10.6%
151 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Troy Calhoun
Air Force
Played his entire career under Troy Calhoun.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownAurora, CO
Height6'0"
Weight195 lb
Class2
PositionQB
Jersey9
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamAir Force
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc1 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This player hasn’t appeared on a Heisman ballot tracked by the model. | |||||||||
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Air Force | Mountain West | QB | 2 | No. 9 | 6-0 | 195 lb | Aurora, CO |