Nathan Hayes

QB · North Dakota State · Sr. · #2

6′3″ · 228 lb · West Chicago, IL · St. Charles East

He has 10 touchdown passes in 7 games.

North Dakota State is 6-1 in his seven games. A vertical passer.

Plays most like Kitna ’25, UAB 2025.

Passing yards

1,272

106 of 163, 65%

TD–INT

10–5

7.8 per throw

NCAA rating

144.7

51st of 103

ZPR

42nd of 103

How ZPR works

Solid or better in 6 of 7.

Worst night: 210 yards against Fordham, a win.

Best by our grade: at Air Force. Worst: Fordham, sacked 2 times.

Tap a game for its plays

Q1Q2Q3Q4

Jacksonville State

W 33–7·Unranked

Solid

160 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · Rush 5 for 25 · Sacked 2

Biggest swing: his Q2 sack added 13 points of win chance. Win chance: 74% to 87%.

Full game page

Fordham

W 38–0·FCS

Shaky

210 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · Rush 4 for 10 · Sacked 2

No single play moved his team's chance of winning by more than a few points.

Full game page

at Air Force

W 38–32·Unranked

Great

228 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · Rush 3 for 17, 1 TD · Sacked 0

Biggest swing: his Q2 run cost his team 27 points of win chance. Win chance: 84% to 57%.

Full game page

at Sacramento State

W 31–10·Unranked

Solid

210 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · Rush 1 for 14 · Sacked 0

Biggest swing: his Q1 completion added 12 points of win chance. It flipped the game for his team: 39% to 51%.

Full game page

Wyoming

W 28–0·Unranked

Solid

Passing grade only · 187 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · Rush 8 for 91, 2 TD · Sacked 1

Biggest swing: his Q2 completion added 8 points of win chance. Win chance: 82% to 90%.

Full game page

at UNLV

L 7–13·Unranked

Solid

124 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT · Rush 4 for 46 · Sacked 1

Biggest swing: his Q4 interception cost his team 23 points of win chance. Win chance: 26% to 3%.

Full game page

Nevada

W 31–17·Unranked

Solid

153 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · Rush 7 for 48, 1 TD · Sacked 1

Biggest swing: his Q2 run cost his team 16 points of win chance. Win chance: 48% to 32%.

Full game page

Season

Quarter by quarter

Each column is a quarter. Blue and up is a good stretch for him, red and down a bad one, hatched means the game was already decided. A red cross is a turnover and a black dot a touchdown. The word on the right grades the whole game; on games where he ran a lot it grades his passing only. A gold line means the r/CFB game thread kept naming him. Tap a game to open its plays: each bar is one of his plays, up helped his team’s chance of winning and down hurt it, and the grey line is that chance.

How to read this

The word grades the game against every FBS quarterback start, from Rough to Great, using the same throws as his season Zeitgeist Passer Rating and adjusting for the defense he faced. Bars are points added per throw in that quarter. The Season row leaves out quarters after a game was decided.

How he plays

Vertical passer

Also: explosive runner

Why this word

Runs4.4 a gameRarelyA lot

Throws10.4 yards past the lineShortDeep

Completes65%FewerMore

Takes sacks5% of dropbacksRarelyOften

The dot is where he sits among this season’s starters; the tick is the middle.

Throws deeper than most and runs some. 4.4 carries a game. Closest matches: Kitna ’25, Belin, Pesansky ’25, Madsen ’25.

Where his throws go

Behind the line16%typical 21%

Short46%typical 43%

Middle18%typical 22%

Deep20%typical 14%

Runs 4.4 times a game; 54% of starters run less.

Who he is like

Nearer to him means more alike.

Kitna ’25 UAB 2025 · Chain-mover
2,462 yards, 13 TD, 11 INT. Both throw interceptions and throw deep.
Belin Missouri State · Balanced
887 yards, 6 TD, 4 INT so far. Both throw interceptions and score a lot.
Pesansky ’25 Florida International 2025 · Balanced
1,021 yards, 11 TD, 7 INT. Both throw deep and throw interceptions.
Madsen ’25 Boise State 2025 · Gunslinger
2,333 yards, 18 TD, 9 INT. Both throw deep and hit big plays.

Compared with the 145 FBS starters this season for his throws and running, and with 207 quarterbacks across 2 seasons for the matches, on how they play and how they have done.

This week

RecordNorth Dakota State is 6-1.
Last gameOct. 17 · a win over Nevada, 153 passing yards.

What’s being said about him

5 stories in the last 30 days, from 4 outlets.

Stories about him per day. W and L: his team’s results.

NDSU’s Nathan Hayes Injury in Spotlight After UNLV Loss With Nevada Looming

Heavy +1 Oct 14

All 6 stories this season

His biggest play this season

Q2, 14:08 · North Dakota State up 7Nathan Hayes runs 17 yards for a touchdownNorth Dakota State at Air Force, week 2Q2, 14:08 · North Dakota State 14, Air Force 0▼18%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 79% to 61%▼18%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 79% to 61%N.Hayes rush middle for 17 yards gain to the AF00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this play

All 5 of his plays on video

Nathan Hayes

QB · North Dakota State · Fr · #2

Extends plays with his feet until something opens up. 2 stars out of high school, 1 seasons of real snaps at North Dakota State since. One game to point at: 228 passing yards and 17 rushing yards against Air Force — Week 2, 2026.

1,272 passing yards · 10 passing TD · 197 rushing yards

How he plays

Play style

Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.

Players he’s like

Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.

Clayton TuneHouston · 2020 · 75% season match
Gerry BohannonBaylor · 2021 · 74% season match
Byrum BrownSouth Florida · 2023 · 71% season match
Chase GarbersCalifornia · 2021 · 70% season match
Cameran BrownGeorgia State · 2026 · 65% season match

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2026	North Dakota State	106	163	65.0%	1,272	7.8	10	5	144.7	55
Career		106	163	65.0%	1,272	7.8	10	5	144.7	55

Season	Team
2026	North Dakota State	41	197	4.8	4
Career		41	197	4.8	4

Last game (Wk 7): 153 passing yards, 2 passing TD.

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2026 season · 7 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 33-7vs Jacksonville State	14/22	160	2	1	7.3	61.5
Wk 1	W 38-0vs Fordham	18/22	210	2	0	9.5	—
Wk 2	W 38-32@ Air Force	15/23	228	2	1	9.9	—	Season-high 228 yds
Wk 3	W 31-10@ Sacramento State	14/24	210	1	0	8.8	75.1
Wk 5	W 28-0vs Wyoming	14/25	187	0	0	7.5	80.5
Wk 6	L 7-13@ UNLV	12/22	124	1	3	5.6	26.3	3 INTs — rough day
Wk 7	W 31-17vs Nevada	19/25	153	2	0	6.1	68.2
Total		106/163	1272	10	5	7.8	—

How he played

Oct. 17 · W 31-17 vs Nevada

19 of 25 for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns.

His season, game by game

Game by game

W 31-17 vs NevadaOct. 17153 yds19 of 25, 2 TDPlay by play just above

L 7-13 at UNLVOct. 10124 yds12 of 22, 1 TD, 3 INTBox score only

12 of 22 for 124 yards, a touchdown and 3 interceptions.

Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.

5 more games, with the play by play

W 28-0 vs WyomingOct. 3187 yds14 of 25

Play by playOn the field

14 of 25 for 187 yards. He ran 8 times for 91 yards, after 24 runs in his other six games combined.

5 of 10 of his drives scored
4 of 9 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked twice
8 runs for 91 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
TD1 of 2, 8 yds1
Punt0 of 2, 0 yds2
Downs1 of 1, 25 yds
Second quarterbegan up 7-0
TD2 of 2, 40 yds3
Punt1 of 2, 6 yds
FG2 of 6, 17 yds
Third quarterbegan up 17-0
FG5 of 7, 52 yds
Fourth quarterbegan up 20-0
Punt—
TD2 of 2, 39 yds
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds
FinalW 28-0

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
8-yard touchdown run on 3rd and 8. First quarter, made it 7-0.
2
Sacked for a 9-yard loss on 3rd and 10. First quarter, up 7-0.
3
35-yard completion to Jackson Williams. Second quarter, up 7-0.

10203040503035

leftmiddlerightno spot

a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line

Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.

W 31-10 at Sacramento StateSept. 19210 yds14 of 24, 1 TDBox score only

14 of 24 for 210 yards and a touchdown.

Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.

W 38-32 at Air ForceSept. 12228 yds15 of 23, 2 TD, 1 INT

Play by playOn the field

15 of 23 for 228 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. He was 5 of 12 on third and fourth down.

6 of 10 of his drives scored
5 of 12 on 3rd and 4th down
3 runs for 17 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
TD2 of 3, 10 yds1
TD4 of 6, 40 yds2
Second quarterbegan up 7-0
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds
TD3 of 3, 72 yds
Int1 of 2, 2 yds3
TD3 of 4, 63 yds4
Third quarterbegan up 28-13
TD1 of 1, 41 yds
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds
Fourth quarterbegan up 35-13
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds
FG1 of 1, 0 yds
FinalW 38-32

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
8-yard completion to DJ Scott on 3rd and 6. First quarter, tied 0-0. Converted.
2
16-yard completion to Logan Conklin on 3rd and 4. First quarter, up 7-0. Converted.
3
Intercepted on 3rd and 1. Second quarter, up 21-7. Picked off by Air Force’s Blake Fletcher.
4
51-yard completion to Jackson Williams on 3rd and 9. Second quarter, up 21-13. Converted.

1020304050415144

leftmiddlerightno spot

a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line

Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.

W 38-0 vs FordhamSept. 5210 yds18 of 22, 2 TD

Play by playOn the field

18 of 22 for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns. North Dakota State scored touchdowns on 3 of the 5 drives he played.

4 of 5 of his drives scored
4 of 8 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked twice
4 runs for 10 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
FG4 of 5, 33 yds12
TD1 of 1, 35 yds3
Second quarterbegan up 3-0
Downs4 of 6, 42 yds4
TD6 of 6, 61 yds
Third quarterbegan up 17-0
TD3 of 4, 39 yds
FinalW 38-0

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
No gain on 3rd and 1. First quarter, tied 0-0.
2
12-yard completion to Mekhi Collins on 3rd and 6. First quarter, tied 0-0. Converted.
3
35-yard completion to Jordan McCants. First quarter, up 3-0.
4
Incomplete to Reis Kessel on 4th and 4. Second quarter, up 10-0. Turnover on downs.

102030405035

leftmiddlerightno spot

a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line

Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.

W 33-7 vs Jacksonville StateAug. 29160 yds14 of 22, 2 TD, 1 INT

Play by playOn the field

14 of 22 for 160 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. He was 4 of 9 on third and fourth down.

5 of 8 of his drives scored
4 of 9 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked twice
5 runs for 25 yds

First quarterbegan tied 0-0
TD4 of 4, 44 yds1
Punt1 of 2, 4 yds2
FG3 of 4, 29 yds
Second quarterbegan tied 7-7
Punt0 of 2, 0 yds
Int0 of 2, 0 yds3
TD6 of 7, 83 yds4
Third quarterbegan up 17-7
FG—
FG0 of 1, 0 yds
FinalW 33-7

a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost

completea touchdownincompleteinterceptedhis runsacked

1
17-yard completion to Reis Kessel on 3rd and 5. First quarter, tied 0-0. Converted.
2
Incomplete to Reis Kessel on 3rd and 5. First quarter, up 7-0. Broken up by Jacksonville State’s M. Sanders.
3
Intercepted on 3rd and 6. Second quarter, up 10-7. Picked off by Jacksonville State’s Jonavan Carr.
4
44-yard touchdown pass to Jordan McCants. Second quarter, made it 17-7.

102030405044

leftmiddlerightno spot

a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line

Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.

Signature game

Week 2 · 2026

W 38-32

at Air Force

228 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT · 17 rush yds (3 car) · 1 TD

Edged out Air Force on the road in a shootout.

With J. Williams — 2 rec · 53 yds · 18 rush yds (2 car) · A. Bickerton — 52 yards per punt · 3 punts · 61 long

Signature plays

The plays that mattered most

Week 2 · Air Force · 3rd and 1 · Q2 · EPA −11.43N.Hayes pass intercepted by B.Fletcher at AF05 B.Fletcher return 95 yards for a touchdown Timeout North Dakota State
Week 2 · Air Force · 4th and 2 · Q2 · EPA +5.48Hayes to Collins: a 44-yard touchdown pass.
Week 2 · Air Force · 3rd and 9 · Q2 · EPA +5.10Hayes to Williams: a 51-yard pass.
Week 1 · Jacksonville State · 2nd and 15 · Q2 · EPA +5.02Hayes to McCants: a 44-yard touchdown pass.
Week 2 · Air Force · 2nd and 12 · Q3 · EPA +4.36Hayes to Conklin: a 41-yard touchdown pass.
Week 1 · Jacksonville State · 3rd and 6 · Q2 · EPA −4.17N.Hayes pass intercepted by J.Carr at NDSU21, End Of Play

4 more plays

Week 6 · UNLV · 1st and 10 · Q1 · EPA −4.10N.Hayes pass intercepted by M.Bin-Wahad at UNLV23 M.Bin-Wahad return 0 yards (C.Kiel)
Week 3 · Sacramento State · 3rd and 6 · Q1 · EPA +3.93Hayes to Williams: a 33-yard touchdown pass.
Week 3 · Sacramento State · 2nd and 10 · Q1 · EPA +3.73Hayes to Collins: a 38-yard pass.
Week 7 · Nevada · 3rd and 6 · Q3 · EPA +3.67Hayes to Williams: a 43-yard pass.

Where he ranks

Pass yards1,27275thAmong 144 quarterbacks with 80 or more attempts

Pass TDs10tied for 48thAmong 144 quarterbacks with 80 or more attempts

Yards / att7.8tied for 60thAmong 144 quarterbacks with 80 or more attempts

Completion %65.0%tied for 62ndAmong 144 quarterbacks with 80 or more attempts

Interceptions5tied for 97thAmong 144 quarterbacks with 80 or more attempts

Rush yards19738thAmong 144 quarterbacks with 80 or more attempts

Rush TDs4tied for 22ndAmong 144 quarterbacks with 80 or more attempts

75th in passing yards, among all 434 FBS players with a passing row this season, any position

Passing yards1,2724th in the Mountain West this season.

Touchdown passes10tied for 2nd in the Mountain West this season.

Conference ranks count every player in the conference with a row in that stat, any position. Career ranks count current FBS players, from the games in our log.

Who he played, by opponent strength

Ratings of the games shown run from -26 to +2 points against an average team (SP+ rating of each opponent).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

106/163 (65.0%) · 10 TD · 5 INT

163 of 163 attempts matched to play-by-play

163 of 163 attempts charted for true throw depth

Adjusted ANY/A

7.0177 of 170 QBs

Sack rate

4.7%79 of 170 QBs

Rarely sacked (79 of 170 QBs) and still 77 of 170 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

15% of attempts (24)

96%comp1 INT

Air -3.7 · YAC 11.3 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

48% of attempts (78)

72%comp1 INT

Air 4.5 · YAC 3.8 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

19% of attempts (31)

45%comp2 INT

Air 13.4 · YAC 1.0 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

18% of attempts (30)

43%comp1 INT

Air 33.0 · YAC 3.2 avg

Overall 65.0% completion on 163 attempts · 43% completion on 30 deep attempts (20+ air yds).

Teams and coaches

2026North Dakota State6-1HC: Tim Polasek · Run-heavy

Our ratings

CFB Zeitgeist Score 50 (#66 of 147). Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

50Rotational starter #66 of 147 · through 7 games?

13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: fumbles lost (90th percentile). Strength: rush tds (83rd percentile). Concern: interception rate (21st percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

EPA / dropback#48 / 141 · 66th pct

0.26

Explosive rate#51 / 141 · 64th pct

11.7%

Sack rate#62 / 141 · 56th pct

4.7%

Success rate#66 / 141 · 54th pct

43.5%

Interception rate#112 / 141 · 21st pct

3.1%

Box-score rates (8)

Fumbles lost#1 / 125 · 90th pct

Rush TDs#22 / 144 · 83rd pct

Rush yards#38 / 144 · 74th pct

197

Pass TDs#48 / 144 · 63rd pct

Yards / att#60 / 144 · 57th pct

7.8

Completion %#62 / 144 · 57th pct

65.0%

Pass yards#75 / 144 · 48th pct

1272

Interceptions#97 / 144 · 25th pct

Season trend

EPA / dropback— first qualifying season

Success rate— first qualifying season

Explosive rate— first qualifying season

Sack rate— first qualifying season

Interception rate— first qualifying season

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Zeitgeist Passer Rating

2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.

Low confidence: 157 dropbacks

55Zeitgeist Passer Rating42nd of 103 FBS QBs

NCAA passer rating 144.7 51st of 103 FBS QBs

ZPR ranks him 9 places higher than passer rating does: he produces positive plays and yards per attempt at a higher rate than his box line suggests.

Positive-play rate weight 24%

50.3%69th pct of FBS QBs

share of dropbacks that gained expected points · -0.6% schedule adj.

Yards per attempt weight 56%

7.8957th pct of FBS QBs

sacks excluded · -0.1 schedule adj.

Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)

5.3%53th pct of FBS QBs

the input passer rating cannot see · +0.8% schedule adj.

Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (13 of 170 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2026 season · 7 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home4g	178	1.5	7.6	0.2
Road3g	187	1.3	8.1	1.3

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	182	1.4	7.8	0.7

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Tim Polasek

Pass share

37.6%

169 pass / 280 run

Plays / game

64.1

7 games

Scheme: Run-heavy.

Awards

Player standing · 2026

Impact starter

163 pass attempts and 41 carries in 7 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Zeitgeist Score

50 · #66 of 147 QBs · through 7 games

Two-star recruit. Now #66 at the position.

Starter

The No. 2,723 recruit in the country is starting at quarterback in the Mountain West as a senior.

Nathan Hayes

How he plays

This week

What’s being said about him

His biggest play this season

How he plays

Players he’s like

Career stats

Game log

How he played

Game by game

Signature game

Signature plays

Where he ranks

Passing profile

Teams and coaches

Our ratings

Splits

Awards

Impact starter

Starter

In the news in the last 30 days

In the news this season

Week by week

What fans said

In the game threads

Named in

Where to follow him

First season at North Dakota State, 7 games

His moves

2022