CFB Zeitgeist Score
18
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 99th percentile.
Henry Belin IV
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
22 PASS YDS · 0 PASS TD · 41 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Missouri State
2025Duke
2026Missouri State
QB · DUKE · ACC
Henry Belin IV
- 3
- #3
- 6-3 | 220 lb
- New York, NY
Heisman Heat
#297
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2022–2025-49%
Sharp dropoff (-49%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Duke
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Duke -> Missouri State | 3-star | 0.8300 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Henry Belin IV
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Henry Belin IV
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 4g
22Pass yards
0Pass TDs
0INT
Per game
5.5Pass yards
0Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
71.5Pass yards
0Pass TDs
0INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 22): needs 330.9/game over remaining 9.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 22): needs 442/game over remaining 9.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 0): needs 2.8/game over remaining 9.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 0): needs 3.3/game over remaining 9.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 0): needs 3.9/game over remaining 9.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Henry Belin IV's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Duke, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Balanced quarterback against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
2 13th
ATT
5 20th
CMP%
40.0% 6th
Y/A
4.4 13th
Passing Production
YDS
22 12th
TD
0 30th
INT
0 100th
Rushing
CAR
5 26th
YDS
41 52nd
YPC
8.2 93rd
TD
0 44th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 4 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | L 19-45vs Illinois | 2/5 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 4.4 | 30.3 | Season-high 22 yds |
| Wk 5 | W 38-3@ Syracuse | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 6 | W 45-21@ California | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 8 | L 18-27vs Georgia Tech | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Total | 2/5 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 4.4 | 30.3 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Duke9-4HC: Mike Elko · Run-leaning
2023Duke8-5HC: Trooper Taylor · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2024Duke9-4HC: Manny Diaz · Pass-leaning
2025Duke9-5HC: Manny Diaz · Balanced
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 22 | #338/382 | 12th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 0 | #285/407 | 30th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 2 | #336/383 | 13th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 40.0% | #360/383 | 6th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 4.4 | #333/382 | 13th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 41 | #198/408 | 52nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 3.8% | #363/428 | 15th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 5 | #326/407 | 20th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 0 | #1/407 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 15 | #218/391 | 45th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 8.2 | #29/407 | 93rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 5 | #304/408 | 26th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #230/408 | 44th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 8.9% | #308/428 | 28th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 6.4% | #352/428 | 18th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 4.1% | #298/428 | 31st pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 3.5% | #370/428 | 14th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 3.4% | #358/428 | 17th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 1.6% | #392/428 | 9th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 1.6% | #409/428 | 5th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 4 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 11.0 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 |
| Road2g | — | — | — | — |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins2g | — | — | — | — |
| Losses2g | 11.0 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 7.3 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+1g | — | — | — | — |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
18Below cohort
Elite: interceptions (99th). Concern: pass tds (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Henry Belin IVDukeNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 57% simLogan FifeNew Mexico State· 53% simRyan BrownePurdue· 52% sim
Interceptions
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Yards / att
Completion %
Pass yards
Pass TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Manny Diaz
Pass share
53.3%
506 pass / 444 run
Plays / game
67.9
14 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.7%
358 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
3 coaches2022
Mike Elko
Duke
2023era →
Trooper Taylor
Duke
2024era →
Manny Diaz
Duke
2025
Manny Diaz
Duke
Played under 3 different head coaches: Mike Elko, Trooper Taylor, and Manny Diaz. Multi-era developmental context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownNew York, NY
Height6'3"
Weight220 lb
Class3
PositionQB
Jersey3
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamDuke
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.