The Zeitgeist List · Coaching

Casey Woods

Missouri State, 2026–nowMO2026now
2-5This season at Missouri State
2-5Career
Program lift
Year 1
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
2%Cool seat83rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs

Career arc

Part one · This week

As of Fri Oct 23

Tuesday: vs. Sam Houston

Tue Oct 27, 8 pm ET ESPN2 · Sam Houston is 1-6 · First meeting between Woods and Phil Longo as head coaches · Missouri State’s chance to win: 46% (the site’s model)

His week

Missouri State Bears · 51 views by Friday

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 96th of 138 per play. Defense: 136th.

Offense, per play96thRunning offense119thDefense, per play136thDefense, knocking offenses off schedule138thWorstBest
Offense, per play96th of 138Running offense119th of 138Defense, per play136th of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule138th of 138WorstBest
Through 7 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Missouri State. The other two rows are where Missouri State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

5 games left

  1. Tue Oct 27vs. Sam Houston (1-6)ESPN246%
  2. Sat Nov 7at Florida International (3-4)22%
  3. Sat Nov 14vs. New Mexico State (3-4)40%
  4. Sat Nov 21at Jacksonville State (5-2)13%
  5. Sat Nov 28vs. Liberty (6-1)5%

Percent: Missouri State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Missouri State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

122nd128th134thPreseason129thTexas A&M L 0-50Texas A&M L 0-50L 0-50Texas A&M129thLindenwood W 48-14Lindenwood W 48-14W 48-14Lindenwood129thMarshall L 24-30Marshall L 24-30L 24-30Marshall129thSMU L 24-34SMU L 24-34L 24-34SMU129thWestern Kentucky L 13-34Western Kentucky L 13-34L 13-34Western Kentu…128thKennesaw State W 24-21Kennesaw State W 24-21W 24-21Kennesaw State128thDelaware L 38-61Delaware L 38-61L 38-61Delaware128th
  1. Oct 12–18W 24-21 vs. Kennesaw State1 headline · 82nd of 138Casey Woods pushes for more Group of Six representation in expanded CFP Springfield News-Leader
  2. Oct 5–11L 13-34 at Western Kentucky1 headline · 83rd of 138
  3. Sep 28–Oct 4No game3 headlines · 70th of 138Casey Woods provides Missouri State football health update before taking on WKU Yahoo Sports
  4. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 24-34 at SMU5 headlines · 60th of 138
  5. Sep 14–20 · rebuiltL 24-30 vs. Marshall2 headlines · 79th of 138
  6. Sep 7–13 · rebuiltW 48-14 vs. Lindenwood3 headlines · 73rd of 138Casey Woods on Missouri State football's win over Lindenwood Springfield News-Leader

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Missouri State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Missouri State

7 stories about him in the last 30 days

Tue Oct 27: Sam Houston

from 4 outlets and r/CFB

Sep 27: 2Sep 28: 1Oct 2: 2Oct 7: 1Oct 15: 1L 24-34 at SMULL 13-34 at Western KentuckyLW 24-21 vs Kennesaw StateWL 38-61 at DelawareLSep 24Oct 23Most in a day: 2
Sep 27: 2Sep 28: 1Oct 2: 2Oct 7: 1Oct 15: 1L 24-34 at SMULL 13-34 at Western KentuckyLW 24-21 vs Kennesaw StateWL 38-61 at DelawareLSep 24Oct 23Most in a day: 2
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.

A sour reunion: Casey Woods’ return to SMU falls short - the-standard.org

The Standard Sep 28 · 1 outlet

What they’re talking about

Conference and schedule2 stories
Press conference and quotes2 stories

25 stories about him this season

from 7 outlets and r/CFB

Aug 1 to Aug 7: 3Aug 15 to Aug 21: 2Aug 22 to Aug 28: 1Aug 29 to Sep 4: 3Sep 5 to Sep 11: 2Sep 12 to Sep 18: 2Sep 19 to Sep 25: 5Sep 26 to Oct 2: 5Oct 3 to Oct 9: 1Oct 10 to Oct 16: 1L 0-50 at Texas A&MLW 48-14 vs LindenwoodWL 24-30 vs MarshallLL 24-34 at SMULL 13-34 at Western KentuckyLW 24-21 vs Kennesaw StateWL 38-61 at DelawareLAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 5
Aug 1 to Aug 7: 3Aug 15 to Aug 21: 2Aug 22 to Aug 28: 1Aug 29 to Sep 4: 3Sep 5 to Sep 11: 2Sep 12 to Sep 18: 2Sep 19 to Sep 25: 5Sep 26 to Oct 2: 5Oct 3 to Oct 9: 1Oct 10 to Oct 16: 1L 0-50 at Texas A&MLW 48-14 vs LindenwoodWL 24-30 vs MarshallLL 24-34 at SMULL 13-34 at Western KentuckyLW 24-21 vs Kennesaw StateWL 38-61 at DelawareLAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 5
Gold: stories about him each week. W and L: his games. Counted from Aug 1, when tracking began.

Casey Woods provides Missouri State football injury update ahead of Marshall game

Springfield News-Leader +1 Sep 14 · 2 outlets

All 3 articles
Yahoo SportsCasey Woods provides Missouri State football injury update ahead of Marshall gameSpringfield News-LeaderCasey Woods previews Missouri State football vs MarshallSpringfield News-LeaderCasey Woods provides Missouri State football injury update ahead of Marshall game

What they’re talking about

Game preview7 stories
Press conference and quotes5 stories
Conference and schedule2 stories

Could another school hire him? What has he said?

Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Part two · The hire

Hires into jobs like this

Hired into 7–8, Regional Program V. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.

Of the 5 closest comps, 2 left the program higher than he found it and 3 left it lower. Median stay: 4 seasons; 1 left mid-season.
Every coach hired into a Regional Program V job since 1990 (86): typically -0.3 after year 1, +0.1 after year 2.
band ends: fewer than 15 hires still in the job+16+12+8+4what he inherited-4hiredyr 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 6yr 7yr 8yr 9yr 10yr 11yr 12yr 13Viator: -3.2 vs. inheritedBurns: -4.7 vs. inheritedMora: +5.2 vs. inheritedMonken: +17.9 vs. inheritedNord: -2.4 vs. inheritedWoods: -0.2 vs. inherited▏ Monken +17.9✕ Mora +5.2Woods -0.2▏ Nord -2.4▏ Viator -3.2▏ Burns -4.7
1Matt Viator →
→ UL Monroe, 2016
4–8 · 4–8 · 6–6 · 5–7 · 0–10
5 seasons
-3.2 vs. what he inherited
2Kenni Burns No page yet
→ Kent State, 2023
1–11 · 0–12
2 seasons
-4.7 vs. what he inherited
3Jim Mora →
→ UConn, 2022
6–7 · 3–9 · 9–4 · 9–3
4 seasons · left mid-season
+5.2 vs. what he inherited
4Jeff Monken →
→ Army, 2014
4–8 · 2–10 · 8–5 · 10–3 · 11–2 · 5–8 · 9–3 · 9–4 · 6–6 · 6–6 · 12–2 · 7–6 · 4–2
13 seasons
+17.9 vs. what he inherited
5Gary Nord →
→ UTEP, 2000
8–4 · 2–9 · 2–10 · 2–11
4 seasons
-2.4 vs. what he inherited
First head-coaching job
No prior college head-coaching tenure on record.
The job he took
Followed Ryan Beard (2025–2025), after the season
7–5
A Regional Program V job.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

2%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool83rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    2-5, outscored by 73
  • ▼ Cooler
    No previous seasons here to judge him on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 2-5 after 7 games
19% pushed out over results · of 339 coaches
Were in year 1, after 7 games
1% pushed out over results · of 523 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Part three · The career

Coaching career

2026–now
Missouri State
too new to grade yet

Followed Ryan Beard (2025).

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 240 lbs
across 11 of 19 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+0.5 lbs
#221 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Fr
#255 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: OH (1), OK (1), AL (1), NC (1), VA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
48.8
position-weighted
Talent lost
27.7
position-weighted
Net
+21.0
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Skyler Locklear (QB) from UTEP
Biggest loss: Tristian Gardner (WR) to Coastal Carolina
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Edge via the portal
80%
#15 of 208 stints
Buys Quarterback via the portal
67%
#16 of 206 stints
2-5

Big games

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

One-score games
1-1
50.0% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
3-4
all 7 had a line
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0-1 0.0%
National Program
0-1 0.0%
Regional Program
1-3 25.0%

ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.

Signature games

0-2 vs. AP top 25 · 0-1 vs. the top 10
Signature wins
W
Kennesaw State · 2026
24-21
UpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
L
Texas A&M · 2026
0-50
L
Delaware · 2026
38-61
L
Western Kentucky · 2026
13-34
Upset

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%FBS avg 41%Missouri State2026–20261 season
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season

How good is he so far?

Too new to grade — in-season movement only
Missouri State’s composite stature has held about steady since preseason: 7.5 entering the year to 7.2 through week 8 (Regional Program V) · #109 of 138 in movement since preseason · bottom quarter.
Part four · How he builds a team

Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.

  1. 1His recruiting
  2. 2Roster ownership
  3. 3Where he recruits

His recruiting, really

No class below is fully his yet — every one was inherited or signed mid-transition, so none counts toward a verdict.

2026
#131
Transition

Transition — he was hired mid-cycle

Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.

Roster ownership

Roster ownership

44%His own players

of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 46 of 105 players. The other 59 are holdovers from before he was hired.

Arrived under him 46Inherited 59

Of his own players on this roster, 24% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).

Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 24% of the 46 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.

“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.

Where he recruits

FLTop state

is his biggest recruiting state: 4 of 18 signees (22%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 7 states in all. Next: GA (4).

Where his signees came from, 2026–2026 (18 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)

44% of his signees come from FL and its 2 border states (GA 4).

1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee1 signee
By region
South
16
Midwest
2
Roster distance from campus (Plaster Sports Complex, MO)
median hometown distance
433 mi
within 100 mi
5%
within 500 mi
55%
beyond 1,000 mi
14%
97 of 105 roster players with a known hometown (92% coverage)

The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.