Missouri State at Florida International
Missouri State (3‑5) at Florida International (3‑5) — Florida International is favored by 4.5. Florida International’s offense is at the 13th percentile on explosive plays; Missouri State’s defense is at the 79th.
How they got here
Last three games
Missouri State · 3-5
Rated 94th in our preseason ratings, 147th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point underdog.
W 24-21 vs Kennesaw State No. 141 of 668 teams
won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog
Last three games
Florida International · 3-5
Rated 124th in our preseason ratings, 136th now.
Three straight losses.
Biggest mismatch: Florida International’s explosive plays against Missouri State, 66 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Florida International’s explosive plays against Missouri State’s defense
Florida International offense, 13th percentile · Missouri State defense, 79th
Missouri State’s rushing EPA against Florida International’s defense
Missouri State offense, 15th percentile · Florida International defense, 48th
Florida International’s success rate against Missouri State’s defense
Florida International offense, 29th percentile · Missouri State defense, 5th
What’s at stake
Missouri State
- Missouri State needs 3 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 37% to get there with a win here, 6% with a loss.
- Missouri State is coming off a 21-point win.
Florida International
- Florida International needs 3 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 53% to get there with a win here, 14% with a loss.
- Florida International is still shaking off a 39-point loss.
The series
Missouri State leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2025 · Missouri State won the last meeting
- 2025Missouri State 28-21
Each line is Florida International’s chance to win through that meeting.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Missouri State
The chip · vs the national mediaMissouri State keeps building real, credentialed coaching success -- a 30-year title drought broken, an FBS jump that produced a bowl bid in year one -- and keeps losing the architect to a bigger job right as it happens. Fans see a program other places keep raiding rather than one that can't win.
What this game touches
Losing Bobby Petrino, then Ryan Beard, right after each breakthrough. Petrino ended a 30-year title drought and reached back-to-back FCS Playoffs, then left for UNLV in December 2022. Beard led the program's FBS debut to a 7-6 season and the program's first-ever bowl bid, then left for Coastal Carolina before the bowl game itself was even played -- forcing an interim coach, Bobby's son Nick Petrino, to coach it instead.
Florida International
The chip · vs big brotherPanther fans live in the shadow of Miami and share a city that barely knows they exist; they say the only way FIU gets noticed is by winning, so they treat every bowl bid and every Shula Bowl scalp as a claim on attention nobody hands them.
What this game touches
The long quiet before 2025. FIU hadn't reached a bowl since 2019 or finished above .500 since 2018 — years of irrelevance in its own city — until Willie Simmons' first season went 7-6 and ended the drought, a stretch long enough that fans had learned to expect nothing.
Best players
Missouri State
- Jared Lloyd (LB) · 86 tackles
- Isaiah Myers (WR) · 873 receiving yards
- J.J. O'Neal (S) · 46 tackles
Florida International
- Maguire Anderson (WR) · 597 receiving yards
- J.J. Kohl (QB) · 1,801 passing yards
- Deandre Boykins (DB) · 45 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Missouri State fans are in a better mood than Florida International fans (99th percentile vs 55th among FBS fanbases), even with Florida International favored.
Florida International favored by 4.5 · Total 49.5
Florida International by 4.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Florida International’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Pitbull Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 87, noon Saturdays 63
Missouri State at Florida International · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 4 pm ET · Pitbull Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Pitbull Stadium: noon Saturdays score 63, 3:30 pm 68, 7:30 pm 87.
- noon: 63, Rough
- 3:30 pm: 68, Rough
- 7:30 pm: 87, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Florida International is worth +4.4 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 56th percentile.
39% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (15-23 home, 10-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.9 at home vs. away over 90 games — inside the ±7.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,095 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Florida International
- Wk 4Wvs Long Island University20-3
- Wk 6Wvs New Mexico State22-3
- Wk 7Lat Jacksonville State24-27
- Wk 8Lvs Middle Tennessee23-26
- Wk 9Lat Liberty10-49
Missouri State
- Wk 4Lat SMU24-34
- Wk 6Lat Western Kentucky13-34
- Wk 7Wvs Kennesaw State24-21
- Wk 8Lat Delaware38-61
- Wk 9Wvs Sam Houston24-3
Power rating by week
Missouri State is rated 0.1 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Florida International8th1-3
- Missouri State6th2-2