Liberty routs Florida International 49-10

Florida International3-510
Liberty7-149Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Williams Stadium (VA), Lynchburg, Va. · Crowd 16,702CBS Sports Network

Liberty routed Florida International 49-10.

We had Liberty favored. It won.

Next: Florida International vs Missouri State, Sat Nov 7 · 4:00 PM ET · Florida International favored by 4.5

Next: Liberty at New Mexico State, Sat Nov 7 · 8:00 PM ET · Liberty favored by 16.5

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Liberty a 90% chance, and the closing betting line (Liberty was a 13.5-point favorite) put it at 86%.

Blocked field goalQ1 7:35
FinalLiberty 49-10 Florida InternationalLiberty wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4LibertyWon49-10ScoresBlocked field goal
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4LibertyWon49-10ScoresBlocked field goal
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4LibertyLowest 0%Lost10-49ScoresBlocked field goal
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4LibertyLowest 0%Lost10-49ScoresBlocked field goal

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Liberty’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Liberty -13.5), at 87% for Liberty (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Liberty scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Florida International on 2 of its 11.

Liberty’s drives are teal, Florida International’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Florida International: Punt, from 92 yards out to 83PuntLiberty: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida International: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 29Missed FGLiberty: Interception, from 71 yards out to 67InterceptionFlorida International: Punt, from 60 yards out to 56PuntLiberty: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Florida International: Punt, from 77 yards out to 78PuntLiberty: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida International: Interception, from 75 yards out to 64InterceptionLiberty: Touchdown, from 39 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida International: End of half, from 75 yards out to 81End of halfQ3Liberty: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida International: Punt, from 69 yards out to 71PuntLiberty: Touchdown, from 48 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida International: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 21Field goalQ4Liberty: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntFlorida International: Turned over on downs, from 68 yards out to 58DownsLiberty: Touchdown, from 42 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida International: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownLiberty: Punt, from 59 yards out to 54PuntFlorida International: Punt, from 73 yards out to 60PuntLiberty: End of game, from 78 yards out to 80End of game

What it cost

Liberty’s chance to make the playoff rose from 5% to 6%.

Make the playoff

Florida International · lost0% → 0%
Liberty · won5% → ▲6%5%▲ 6%

Win the conference

Florida International · lost1% → ▼0%
Liberty · won56% → ▲58%56%▲ 58%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Florida International plays vs Missouri State on Sat Nov 7 with a 0% chance to win the conference. Liberty plays at New Mexico State on Sat Nov 7 with a 6% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Liberty 49, Florida International 10

Liberty covered −13.5 by 25.5. The total, 59, went over 45.5.

Florida InternationalLibertyTotal yardsFlorida International 210Liberty 391210391Passing yardsFlorida International 176Liberty 246176246Rushing yardsFlorida International 34Liberty 14534145First downsFlorida International 15Liberty 241524TurnoversFlorida International 1Liberty 111Time of possessionFlorida International 30:46Liberty 29:1430:4629:14
Team totalsFlorida InternationalLiberty
Total yards210391
Passing22 of 31, 176 yds18 of 23, 246 yds
Rushing23 for 34 yds35 for 145 yds
First downs1524
Third down2 of 105 of 8
Fourth down0 of 10 of 0
Turnovers11
Penalties8 for 75 yds6 for 60 yds
Time of possession30:4629:14

Florida International leaders

  • Passing J.J. Kohl 21 of 28, 164 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Devonte Lyons 10 for 52 yds; Jayden Ford 2 for 14 yds
  • Receiving Kyle Mcneal 6 for 56 yds; Maguire Anderson 5 for 28 yds

Liberty leaders

  • Passing Deshawn Purdie 16 of 19, 227 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Kanye Udoh 5 for 31 yds, 1 TD; Deshawn Purdie 4 for 24 yds
  • Receiving Makai Jackson 6 for 86 yds; Kelsey Johnson 1 for 31 yds

No rain and calm

64° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 9

October game-day temperatures at Williams Stadium (VA)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Liberty favoredFlorida International favored100%Win chanceLibertyRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Liberty favoredFlorida International favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:40 left3:34 p.m.
Florida International 0, Liberty 0 · Liberty 87% to win
no rain · wind 3 mph from the north-northeast · 64°
Lyons 3-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Lynchburg/p. Glenn airport, 2.9 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Florida International · 3-4

Rated 124th in our preseason ratings, 122nd now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Last three games

Liberty · 6-1

Rated 83rd in our preseason ratings, 45th now, up 38 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

Week by week

Liberty

Wk 3: W 51-15 vs Ball State▲36Ball St.Wk 4: W 34-17 at Coastal Carolina▲17Coastal…Wk 5: W 30-14 at Delaware▲16DelawareWk 6: W 35-3 vs Sam Houston▲32Sam Hous…Wk 8: W 34-6 at Kennesaw State▲28Kennesaw…
  • Wk 3Wvs Ball State51-15
  • Wk 4Wat Coastal Carolina34-17
  • Wk 5Wat Delaware30-14
  • Wk 6Wvs Sam Houston35-3
  • Wk 8Wat Kennesaw State34-6

Florida International

Wk 3: L 10-16 at Florida Atlantic▼6F. Atlan…Wk 4: W 20-3 vs Long Island University▲17Long Isl…Wk 6: W 22-3 vs New Mexico State▲19N. Mexic…Wk 7: L 24-27 at Jacksonville State▼3Jacksonv…Wk 8: L 23-26 vs Middle Tennessee▼3M. Tenne…
  • Wk 3Lat Florida Atlantic10-16
  • Wk 4Wvs Long Island University20-3
  • Wk 6Wvs New Mexico State22-3
  • Wk 7Lat Jacksonville State24-27
  • Wk 8Lvs Middle Tennessee23-26

Power rating by week

Liberty is rated 7.8 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

6-0-7Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8LibertyFlorida International

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Florida International’s EPA/play against Liberty, 68 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Florida International’s EPA/play against Liberty’s defense

    68 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Florida International offense, 21st percentile · Liberty defense, 89th

  2. Florida International’s passing EPA against Liberty’s defense

    64 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Florida International offense, 26th percentile · Liberty defense, 90th

  3. Liberty’s explosive plays against Florida International’s defense

    44 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Liberty offense, 20th percentile · Florida International defense, 64th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Florida InternationalLiberty
EPA/play, offense
Florida International…Liberty · 80
EPA/play, defense
Florida International · 61Liberty · 89
Success rate, offense
Florida International · 29Liberty · 91
Success rate, defense
Florida International · 50Liberty · 87
Explosive-play rate, offense
Florida International · 13Liberty · 20
Explosive-play rate, defense
Florida International · 64Liberty · 34
Rush EPA, offense
Florida International · 13Liberty · 85
Rush EPA, defense
Florida International · 48Liberty · 58
Pass EPA, offense
Florida International · 26Liberty · 79
Pass EPA, defense
Florida International · 67Liberty · 90

The series

Liberty leads the series 3-1

4 meetings since 2020 · Florida International won the last meeting

  • 2025Florida International 34-27
  • 2024Liberty 31-24
  • 2023Liberty 38-6Liberty won 38-6 at Florida International. Chance to win started at 79%, low 79%, high better than 99%.
  • 2020Liberty 36-34Liberty won 36-34 vs Florida International. Chance to win started at 66%, low 45%, high 92%.

Each line is Liberty’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Liberty fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (83rd percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 90% · Line…Liberty fans · 83rdFlorida Internat…Florida InternationalLiberty

Liberty favored by 13.5 · Total 45.5

How games like this usually go

Liberty by 13.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Liberty.

opened −11.5now −13.5

The total rose 1 point.

opened 44.5now 45.5

Spread: −11.5 → −13.5 · Total: 44.5 → 45.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Liberty is worth +4.5 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 57th percentile.

77% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (33-10 home, 25-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.2 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 805 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Conference USA standings