Liberty at New Mexico State
New Mexico State (3‑5) hosts Liberty (7‑1). The market has Liberty favored by 16.5. The model gives Liberty a 78% shot. New Mexico State’s passing offense is at the 3rd percentile; Liberty’s pass defense is at the 90th.
How they got here
Last three games
Liberty · 7-1
Rated 83rd in our preseason ratings, 36th now, up 47 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last three games
New Mexico State · 3-5
Rated 150th in our preseason ratings, 174th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 18-42 vs New MexicoTop 25 No. 58 of 668 teams
lost by 24 as an 11.5-point underdog
Biggest mismatch: New Mexico State’s passing EPA against Liberty, 87 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
New Mexico State’s passing EPA against Liberty’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 3rd percentile · Liberty defense, 90th
New Mexico State’s EPA/play against Liberty’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 9th percentile · Liberty defense, 89th
New Mexico State’s explosive plays against Liberty’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 61st percentile · Liberty defense, 34th
What’s at stake
Liberty
- Liberty controls first place in Conference USA with 3 games left — 59% to win it with a win here, 54% with a loss.
- Liberty is coming off a 39-point win.
New Mexico State
- New Mexico State needs 3 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 31% to get there with a win here, 5% with a loss.
- New Mexico State is still shaking off a 24-point loss.
The series
Liberty leads the series 7-2
9 meetings since 2018 · Liberty has won the last 4
- 2025Liberty 30-27
- 2024Liberty 30-24
- 2023Liberty 49-35
- 2023Liberty 33-17
- 2022New Mexico State 49-14
Each line is New Mexico State’s chance to win through that meeting. New Mexico State is 0-4 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Liberty
The chip · vs the national mediaFans bristle at being dismissed as a young regional program that overachieved once and is now reverting — they remember the unbeaten regular season and the New Year's Six stage, and they refuse to let a 4-8 year erase what the program proved it could do.
What this game touches
The 4-8 collapse after the Fiesta Bowl. Liberty's 2025 team went 4-8, its first losing season in 20 years, just two seasons after a 13-1 run to the Fiesta Bowl. For a program that ascended so fast, the sudden drop fed the oldest doubt about a young FBS team: that the rise was the exception and the fall is the regression.
New Mexico State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans are tired of being college football's punchline for losing — the program everyone schedules as a guaranteed win — and remember that Jerry Kill's 2023 team walked into that reputation and won ten games anyway.
What this game touches
The post-Kill regression. Jerry Kill took the Aggies to 10 wins and a Conference USA title game in 2023, then stepped away. Tony Sanchez went 3-9 in 2024 and 4-8 in 2025 — proof of how fragile the program's good years are, and how quickly the floor returns.
Best players
Liberty
- Makai Jackson (WR) · 626 receiving yards
- Derrell Farrar (LB) · 43 tackles
- Kam Davis (RB) · 603 rushing yards
New Mexico State
- James Jones (RB) · 889 rushing yards
- Nicolas Sessions (S) · 58 tackles
- Tory Gethers (LB) · 55 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Liberty: Deshawn Purdie (1,453 passing yards) and Kam Davis (603 rushing yards); New Mexico State: James Jones (889 rushing yards).
The spread has moved 4.0 points toward Liberty since opening (+12.5 → +16.5).
The betting line, and the fans
Liberty fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (83rd percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 22%
- Line · 9%
- New Mexico State fans · 77th
- Liberty fans · 83rd
Liberty favored by 16.5 · Total 46.5
Liberty by 16.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Liberty’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 275 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Cool. Bring a jacket.
Liberty at New Mexico State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 8 pm ET · ESPNU · Aggie Memorial Stadium.
- 53°feels like
- 2%average rain chance
- 10 mphwind gusts
- 94weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 11 TV games with a forecast
- Cincinnati at Houston: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Baylor: 100, Ideal
- Penn State at Washington: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: 99, Comfortable
- Temple at Navy: 99, Comfortable
- Hawai'i at UTEP: 98, Comfortable
- UCF at Kansas: 95, Comfortable
- Liberty at New Mexico State: 94, Comfortable
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: 93, Comfortable
- UCLA at Minnesota: 88, Mixed
- Iowa at Northwestern: 87, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Aggie Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 87, 3:30 pm 84, 7:30 pm 93.
- noon: 87, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 84, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
New Mexico State is worth +6.7 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 89th percentile.
38% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (13-21 home, 11-39 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.7 at home vs. away over 93 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,596 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
New Mexico State
- Wk 4Lvs New Mexico18-42
- Wk 5Wvs Western Kentucky34-13
- Wk 6Lat Florida International3-22
- Wk 8Wat Sam Houston30-24
- Wk 9Lvs Jacksonville State0-24
Liberty
- Wk 4Wat Coastal Carolina34-17
- Wk 5Wat Delaware30-14
- Wk 6Wvs Sam Houston35-3
- Wk 8Wat Kennesaw State34-6
- Wk 9Wvs Florida International49-10
Power rating by week
Liberty is rated 13.3 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward Liberty.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: +12.5 → +16.5 · Total: 47.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- New Mexico State7th2-2
- Liberty2nd4-0
Last meeting in our History pages
- Liberty 49, New Mexico State 35Conference USA Championship · Dec 1, 2023
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2022.