Conference USA Championship ·
Conference USA Championship
Records are after this game.
Liberty beat New Mexico State by 14 points, the Conference USA Championship.
How the game turned
Q2 (no clock) Liberty 7, New Mexico State 14
Liberty 34% to win
Blue 1-yd run, turnover on downs
Big moments
- 1Q1 10:08 · Liberty 0, New Mexico State 7Liberty's win chance fell from 71% to 66%.Pavia 25-yd TD run, New Mexico State goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 14:55 · Liberty 7, New Mexico State 14Liberty's win chance fell from 68% to 52%.Pavia 10-yd TD pass to Tiavaasue, New Mexico State goes ahead 14-7
- 3Q2 (no clock) · Liberty 7, New Mexico State 14Liberty's win chance fell from 57% to 34%.Blue 1-yd run, turnover on downs
- 4Q2 0:27 · Liberty 21, New Mexico State 14Salter 26-yd TD pass to Frith, Liberty goes ahead 21-14
- 5Q3 13:15 · Liberty 28, New Mexico State 21Liberty's win chance rose from 78% to 82%.Cooley 4-yd TD run, Liberty goes ahead 28-21
- 6Q4 13:51 · Liberty 42, New Mexico State 35Liberty's win chance rose from 42% to 47%.Lucas 2-yd TD run, Liberty goes ahead 42-35
Liberty's lowest chance to win was 23 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
In the 2nd quarter, New Mexico State's chance to win went from 43 percent to 66 percent on a failed fourth down.
The score stayed Liberty 7, New Mexico State 14.
The play: Liberty on 4th down, Blue 1-yd run.
What happened next
New Mexico State's next game: L 10-37 vs Fresno State in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl, Dec 16
15 days laterLiberty's next game: L 6-45 vs Oregon in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, Jan 1
31 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Dec 1, 2023: Liberty 30, New Mexico State 24, Sep 7, 2024
about 9 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.