North Dakota State at New Mexico
Usual during the game: 60°, between 51° and 69° in about 7 in 10 games. Altitude 5,100 ft above sea level.
Airport reading near the stadium32 games since 2016 · How we measure
North Dakota State (6‑1) travels to New Mexico (5‑1), with New Mexico favored by 4.5. The model gives New Mexico a 66% shot. North Dakota State’s offense is at the 76th percentile on explosive plays; New Mexico’s defense is at the 8th.
How they got here
Last three games
North Dakota State · 6-1
Rated 89th in our preseason ratings, 56th now, up 33 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
New Mexico · 5-1
Rated 73rd in our preseason ratings, 50th now, up 23 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 42-18 @ New Mexico State #149 of 668
won by 24 as an 11.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: North Dakota State’s explosive plays against New Mexico, 68 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
North Dakota State’s explosive plays against New Mexico’s defense
North Dakota State offense, 76th percentile · New Mexico defense, 8th
New Mexico’s passing EPA against North Dakota State’s defense
New Mexico offense, 33rd percentile · North Dakota State defense, 97th
North Dakota State’s success rate against New Mexico’s defense
North Dakota State offense, 35th percentile · New Mexico defense, 100th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of October 23, 2026
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
North Dakota State
The chip · vs the national mediaThe chip is fourteen years of national media calling the FCS titles impressive but small — asterisked by the level, dimmed by the division, never fully counted. Bison fans believe that ten championships under any banner is ten championships, and they are carrying that belief into the Mountain West to prove it matters at any altitude.
New Mexico
The chip · vs the national mediaFans relish that a team the preseason poll buried at 11th of 12 tied for first and earned Coach of the Year — and they want every analyst who wrote the Lobos off to explain how they missed it.
What this game touches
The lost decade. Between Rocky Long's 2007 bowl team and Jason Eck's 2025 arrival, New Mexico went without a bowl game for the better part of two decades — years of losing seasons and coaching turnover that made the 2025 breakthrough feel almost unbelievable.
Best players
North Dakota State
- Donovan Woolen (LB) · 51 tackles
- Jackson Williams (WR) · 432 receiving yards
- Gavin Sell (LB) · 36 tackles
New Mexico
- Mercury Swaim (LB) · 32 tackles
- Scottre Humphrey (RB) · 422 rushing yards
- Jaxton Eck (LB) · 25 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. North Dakota State: Nathan Hayes (1,272 passing yards); New Mexico: Scottre Humphrey (422 rushing yards).
The total has moved down 6.0 points since opening (46.5 → 40.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
New Mexico fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (91st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
New Mexico favored by 4.5 · Total 40.5
New Mexico by 4.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
New Mexico’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Cool and likely wet. Bring a jacket and a poncho.
North Dakota State at New Mexico · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 10 pm ET · The CW · University Stadium. Forecast rain: about 0.05 inch.
- 57°feels like
- 0.05 inforecast rain
- 78%average rain chance
- 20 mphwind gusts
- 93weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at University Stadium: noon Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm 87, 7:30 pm 92.
- noon: 92, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
New Mexico is worth +2.5 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 21st percentile.
39% at home, 27% on the road against FBS opponents (16-25 home, 13-36 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.1 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 5,100 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 963 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
New Mexico
- Wk 2Wvs Mercyhurst70-7
- Wk 3Lat Oklahoma6-14
- Wk 4Wat New Mexico State42-18
- Wk 5Wvs UTEP61-7
- Wk 7Wat Hawai'i21-10
North Dakota State
- Wk 2Wat Air Force38-32
- Wk 3Wat Sacramento State31-10
- Wk 5Wvs Wyoming28-0
- Wk 6Lat UNLV7-13
- Wk 7Wvs Nevada31-17
Power rating by week
New Mexico is rated 0.8 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward New Mexico.
The total fell 6 points.
Spread: −3.5 → −4.5 · Total: 46.5 → 40.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- New Mexico4th2-0
- North Dakota State1st3-1