North Dakota State 31-17 Nevada (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Nevada · North Dakota State

Nevada2-417

North Dakota State6-131Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Fargodome, Fargo, N.D. · Crowd 18,261CBS Sports Network

North Dakota State beat Nevada 31-17.

We had North Dakota State favored. It won.

Next: Nevada vs San José State, Sat Oct 24 · 5:00 PM ET · Nevada favored by 5.5

Next: North Dakota State at New Mexico, Sat Oct 24 · 10:00 PM ET · North Dakota State underdog by 4.5

Top comment in the game thread

I understand now why it took Hayes 4 years to start, this is the worst NDSU offensive play I’ve seen since the 2000s

Q2 9:21 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Bianco 15-yd TD run, Nevada goes ahead 8-0 (Q2, 14:15). North Dakota State went from 81% to 66% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Dakota State an 89% chance, and the closing betting line (North Dakota State was a 14.5-point favorite) put it at 88%.

Favored the whole way: North Dakota State never fell below 55%.

Nevada led by 11 but, as a 14.5-point underdog, never had better than a 45% chance.

19 unanswered

North Dakota State · Q2 0:21

FinalNorth Dakota State 31-17 NevadaNorth Dakota State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 14:15Bianco 15-yd TD run, Nevada goes ahead 8-0North Dakota State 81% → 66% (−15)
2Q2 10:00McFadden 39-yd field goal, Nevada leads 11-0North Dakota State 58% → 73% (+15)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 14:15Bianco 15-yd TD run, Nevada goes ahead 8-0Nevada 19% → 34% (+15)
2Q2 10:00McFadden 39-yd field goal, Nevada leads 11-0Nevada 42% → 27% (−15)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 9:21NDSU fans criticize Hayes' pass after Kiel fumbles and NDSU recoversI am here and stand by everything Inhave said about themr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q2 0:49Nevada fans claim officials moved the ball on NDSU's touchdown driveTerrible refs. Terrible offense. Good defense.r/CFB game thread
Q3 11:25A team scored a kick six and a run back for two in the same game.Has a kick six and a run back for two ever happened in the same game?r/CFB game thread
Q3 9:08NDSU fans celebrate Moore's interception of Bianco's passThe game is insane. It's had a kick 6 a defensive 2 point conversion and a blocked extra point.r/CFB game threadI didn’t interpret it that way, I just wanted to get a dig in for old time’s sake lol Sorry if that was too uncalled forr/CFB game thread
Q3 8:42A player made an impressive interception.There is no way in goddamn hell he caught that?!?r/CFB game thread
Q3 8:18NDSU fans criticize Hayes' snap count and penalties during the driveHayes is cheeks with his snap count.r/CFB game thread
Q4 8:13Fans argue Bianco crossed the line of scrimmage on a completed passI feel like he crossed the LOS, no?r/CFB game thread

North Dakota State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (North Dakota State -14.5), at 89% for North Dakota State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a North Dakota State or Nevada flair (71 and 53); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

North Dakota State scored on 4 of its 14 drives; Nevada on 3 of its 14.

North Dakota State’s drives are teal, Nevada’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Nevada’s side

Nevada’s best moment: Bianco 15-yd TD run, Nevada goes ahead 8-0 (Q2 14:15). It lifted Nevada’s win chance by 15 points.

How Nevada fans took it: “Welp now we're on our 3rd string......” r/CFB game thread

“I am here and stand by everything Inhave said about them”

A North Dakota State fan

When fans got loud

Loud

The jump was loud; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

North Dakota State’s chance to win the conference rose from 25% to 29%.

Win the conference

Nevada · lost2% → ▼1%

North Dakota State · won25% → ▲29%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Nevada plays vs San José State on Sat Oct 24 with a 1% chance to win the conference. North Dakota State plays at New Mexico on Sat Oct 24 with a 29% chance to win the conference.

Box score

North Dakota State 31, Nevada 17

Nevada covered +14.5 by 0.5. The total, 48, went over 42.5.

Team totals	Nevada	North Dakota State
Total yards	286	345
Passing	17 of 36, 190 yds	19 of 25, 153 yds
Rushing	21 for 96 yds	45 for 192 yds
First downs	15	19
Third down	6 of 14	6 of 15
Fourth down	1 of 2	1 of 1
Turnovers	2	0
Penalties	7 for 75 yds	11 for 98 yds
Time of possession	21:51	38:09

Nevada leaders

Passing AJ Bianco 17 of 34, 190 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Dominic Kelley 11 for 60 yds; AJ Bianco 4 for 23 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Gary Givens III 3 for 50 yds, 1 TD; Jaceon Doss 2 for 48 yds

North Dakota State leaders

Passing Nathan Hayes 19 of 25, 153 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Myles Mitchell 13 for 49 yds; Nyeoti Punni 11 for 46 yds
Receiving Jackson Williams 5 for 58 yds; Mekhi Collins 2 for 33 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Nevada · 2-3

Rated 229th in our preseason ratings, 169th now, up 60 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 30-13 @ UTEP #239 of 668

won by 17 as a 10-point favorite

L 33-36 vs Air Force #88 of 668

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 20-27 @ Middle Tennessee #124 of 668

lost by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 7-20 vs Montana State #75 of 668

lost by 13 as a 4.5-point underdog

W 49-14 vs Western Kentucky #47 of 668

won by 35 as a 1.5-point underdog

Last three games

North Dakota State · 5-1

Rated 89th in our preseason ratings, 54th now, up 35 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 7-13 @ UNLV #76 of 668

lost by 6 as a 3-point favorite

W 28-0 vs Wyoming #136 of 668

won by 28 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 31-10 @ Sacramento State #148 of 668

won by 21 as a 26.5-point favorite

W 38-32 @ Air Force #79 of 668

won by 6 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 38-0 vs Fordham #249 of 668

won by 38 as a 41.5-point favorite

W 33-7 vs Jacksonville State #69 of 668

won by 26 as a 6.5-point favorite

Week by week

North Dakota State

Wk 1Wvs Fordham38-0
Wk 2Wat Air Force38-32
Wk 3Wat Sacramento State31-10
Wk 5Wvs Wyoming28-0
Wk 6Lat UNLV7-13

Nevada

Wk 1Wvs Western Kentucky49-14
Wk 2Lvs Montana State7-20
Wk 3Lat Middle Tennessee20-27
Wk 4Lvs Air Force33-36
Wk 6Wat UTEP30-13

Power rating by week

North Dakota State is rated 9.1 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Nevada’s passing EPA against North Dakota State, 78 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Nevada’s passing EPA against North Dakota State’s defense
Nevada offense, 18th percentile · North Dakota State defense, 96th
Nevada’s EPA/play against North Dakota State’s defense
Nevada offense, 32nd percentile · North Dakota State defense, 97th
North Dakota State’s explosive plays against Nevada’s defense
North Dakota State offense, 76th percentile · Nevada defense, 43rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

NevadaNorth Dakota State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

North Dakota State fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (53rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

North Dakota State favored by 14.5 · Total 42.5

How games like this usually go

North Dakota State by 14.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The total fell 4 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

North Dakota State is worth +3.9 points (±6.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 47th percentile.

100% at home, 62% on the road against FBS opponents (8-0 home, 5-3 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.9 at home vs. away over 57 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 1,259 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

North Dakota State3rd2-1
Nevada6th1-1

Full Mountain West standings

North Dakota State beats Nevada 31-17