UNLV 13-7 North Dakota State (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: North Dakota State · UNLV

North Dakota State5-17

UNLV4-213Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev. · Crowd 33,516

UNLV beat North Dakota State 13-7.

We had North Dakota State favored. UNLV won.

Next: North Dakota State beat Nevada 31-17, Sat Oct 17

Next: UNLV lost to Air Force 41-31, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

The life of the gunslinger QB. Rough game from Hayes, but some brutal play calling. Leaving points off the board in the first half, going for it with the whole fourth left… ugly

Q4 1:42 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Hayes intercepted by Bin-Wahad at the UNLV 27 (Q4, 1:23). UNLV went from 71% to 96% to win. Fans right then: “The life of the gunslinger QB. Rough game from Hayes, but some brutal play calling. Leaving points off the board in the first half, going…” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UNLV a 39% chance, and the closing betting line (UNLV was a 3-point underdog) put it at 40%.

A tight one: UNLV bottomed out at 42% and won.

North Dakota State never had better than a 58% chance.

FinalUNLV 13-7 North Dakota StateUNLV wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 9:39InterceptionHayes intercepted by Porter at the NDSU23 and returned for a TD, UNLV goes ahead 7-0UNLV 50% → 71% (+21)
2Q4 1:23InterceptionHayes intercepted by Bin-Wahad at the UNLV 27UNLV 71% → 96% (+25)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 9:39InterceptionHayes intercepted by Porter at the NDSU23 and returned for a TD, UNLV goes ahead 7-0North Dakota State 50% → 29% (−21)
2Q4 1:23InterceptionHayes intercepted by Bin-Wahad at the UNLV 27North Dakota State 29% → 4% (−25)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 7:08NDSU ties game 7-7 after Kiel touchdown amid penalty complaintsJust killing ourselves with penaltiesr/CFB game threadGood lord these penaltiesr/CFB game thread
Q4 14:10NDSU fans rip coach's decision to go 4th down, resulting in turnover on downsTo be fair, I probably would do that in a video game. Key words being video game.r/CFB game threadOf all the calls, that was definitely one of them.r/CFB game thread
Q4 11:01The UNLV coach yelled at the referee.I think that ref and Mullen are about to fuckin go at it on the sideliner/CFB game thread
Q4 7:44Fans debate the correct pronunciation of North Dakota StateWe pronounce it Bye-zahn up north B-ice-in sounds weird to mer/CFB game threadThe correct pronunciation should sound like “Bi-zen”r/CFB game thread
Q4 1:42NDSU's Hayes throws an interception to Bin-Wahad with 1:23 leftQuoted at the top of the page.All that work to get out of that sack only to throw the pickr/CFB game thread

UNLV’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (North Dakota State -3), at 49% for UNLV (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a UNLV or North Dakota State flair (76 and 127); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

UNLV scored on 2 of its 12 drives; North Dakota State on 1 of its 12.

UNLV’s drives are teal, North Dakota State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From North Dakota State’s side

North Dakota State’s best moment: Hayes 21-yd TD pass to Kiel, ties it 7-7 (Q2 6:10). It lifted North Dakota State’s win chance by 19 points.

How North Dakota State fans took it: “The life of the gunslinger QB. Rough game from Hayes, but some brutal play calling. Leaving points off the board in the first half, going for it with the…” r/CFB game thread

“All that work to get out of that sack only to throw the pick”

A UNLV fan

When fans got loud

Roaring

The final stretch is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was roaring; the crowd was quiet.

Too close to call on 52% of plays.

What it cost

North Dakota State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 3% to 1%.

Make the playoff

North Dakota State · lost3% → ▼1%

UNLV · won2% → 2%

Win the conference

North Dakota State · lost31% → ▼26%

UNLV · won22% → ▲28%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

UNLV 13, North Dakota State 7

UNLV covered +3 by 9. The total, 20, stayed under 47.5.

Team totals	North Dakota State	UNLV
Total yards	300	255
Passing	12 of 22, 124 yds	8 of 16, 77 yds
Rushing	39 for 176 yds	48 for 178 yds
First downs	19	16
Third down	4 of 12	5 of 15
Fourth down	0 of 2	0 of 0
Turnovers	3	1
Penalties	9 for 84 yds	9 for 94 yds
Time of possession	26:32	33:28

North Dakota State leaders

Passing Nathan Hayes 12 of 22, 124 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
Rushing Myles Mitchell 22 for 91 yds; Nathan Hayes 6 for 33 yds
Receiving Chris Kiel 2 for 30 yds, 1 TD; Reis Kessel 2 for 30 yds

UNLV leaders

Passing Jackson Arnold 8 of 16, 77 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Jai'Den Thomas 22 for 112 yds; Jackson Arnold 19 for 60 yds
Receiving Kayden McGee 3 for 43 yds; Keyan Burnett 2 for 19 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

North Dakota State · 5-0

Rated 89th in our preseason ratings, 57th now, up 32 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 28-0 vs Wyoming #136 of 668

won by 28 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 31-10 @ Sacramento State #148 of 668

won by 21 as a 26.5-point favorite

W 38-32 @ Air Force #79 of 668

won by 6 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 38-0 vs Fordham #249 of 668

won by 38 as a 41.5-point favorite

W 33-7 vs Jacksonville State #69 of 668

won by 26 as a 6.5-point favorite

Last three games

UNLV · 3-2

Rated 91st in our preseason ratings, 79th now, up 12 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 39-31 vs California #91 of 668

won by 8 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 38-10 @ Akron #91 of 668

won by 28 as a 13.5-point favorite

L 6-44 @ North Texas #120 of 668

lost by 38 as a 3-point favorite

W 21-6 @ Hawai'i #62 of 668

won by 15 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 21-27 vs Memphis #97 of 668

lost by 6 as a 4.5-point favorite

Week by week

UNLV

Wk 1Lvs Memphis21-27
Wk 1Wat Hawai'i21-6
Wk 2Lat North Texas6-44
Wk 4Wat Akron38-10
Wk 5Wvs California39-31

North Dakota State

Wk 1Wvs Jacksonville State33-7
Wk 1Wvs Fordham38-0
Wk 2Wat Air Force38-32
Wk 3Wat Sacramento State31-10
Wk 5Wvs Wyoming28-0

Power rating by week

North Dakota State is rated 2.6 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UNLV’s EPA/play against North Dakota State, 61 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

UNLV’s EPA/play against North Dakota State’s defense
UNLV offense, 36th percentile · North Dakota State defense, 97th
UNLV’s passing EPA against North Dakota State’s defense
UNLV offense, 40th percentile · North Dakota State defense, 96th
North Dakota State’s explosive plays against UNLV’s defense
North Dakota State offense, 76th percentile · UNLV defense, 41st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

North Dakota StateUNLV

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

North Dakota State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (34th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

North Dakota State favored by 3 · Total 47.5

How games like this usually go

North Dakota State by 3, on the usual path until 1:23 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UNLV is worth +1.6 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 12th percentile.

48% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (20-22 home, 20-29 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.5 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 1,204 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

UNLV4th1-0
North Dakota State1st2-0

Full Mountain West standings

UNLV beats North Dakota State 13-7