Nevada beats UTEP 30-13

Team pages: Nevada · UTEP

Nevada2-330
UTEP1-513Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas · Crowd 13,927FS1

Nevada beat UTEP 30-13.

We had Nevada favored. It won.

Next: Nevada lost to North Dakota State 31-17, Sat Oct 17

Next: UTEP lost to San José State 24-11, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Nevada a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (Nevada was a 10-point favorite) put it at 79%.

Favored the whole way: Nevada never fell below 67%.

UTEP never had better than a 33% chance.

FinalNevada 30-13 UTEPNevada wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfNevadaWon30-131+12Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfNevadaWon30-131Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfNevadaLowest 0%Lost13-301−12Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfNevadaLowest 0%Lost13-301Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 6:15Jones 21-yd TD pass to Kelley, Nevada goes ahead 7-0Nevada 74% → 86% (+12)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 6:15Jones 21-yd TD pass to Kelley, Nevada goes ahead 7-0UTEP 26% → 14% (−12)
Nevada’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Nevada -10), at 69% for Nevada (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Nevada’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 10:08Jones run for a 4-yd lossfumblesQ1, 10:08 · Nevada 0, UTEP 0▼3%Nevada’s chance to win, 70% to 67%▼3%Nevada’s chance to win, 70% to 67%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  2. Q1, 6:15Jones 21-yd TD pass to KelleyNevada goes ahead 7-0Q1, 6:15 · Nevada 7, UTEP 0▲12%Nevada’s chance to win, 74% to 86%▲12%Nevada’s chance to win, 74% to 86%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  3. Q2, 9:27Moore sacked for a 7-yd lossQ2, 9:27 · Nevada 10, UTEP 0▲3%Nevada’s chance to win, 87% to 90%▲3%Nevada’s chance to win, 87% to 90%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX

Every drive

Nevada scored on 6 of its 13 drives; UTEP on 2 of its 12.

Nevada’s drives are teal, UTEP’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1UTEP: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntNevada: Punt, from 75 yards out to 53PuntUTEP: Punt, from 89 yards out to 88PuntNevada: Touchdown, from 43 yards out to 0TouchdownUTEP: Punt, from 75 yards out to 60PuntNevada: Punt, from 94 yards out to 90PuntUTEP: Punt, from 67 yards out to 65PuntNevada: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 15Field goalQ2UTEP: Punt, from 67 yards out to 64PuntNevada: Uncategorized, from 79 yards out to 74UncategorizedUTEP: Punt, from 66 yards out to 62PuntNevada: Fumble, from 86 yards out to 87FumbleUTEP: Touchdown, from 13 yards out to 0TouchdownNevada: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 9Field goalUTEP: Punt, from 80 yards out to 84PuntNevada: End of half, from 84 yards out to 81End of halfQ3Nevada: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 28Field goalUTEP: Punt, from 75 yards out to 56PuntNevada: Punt, from 65 yards out to 67PuntUTEP: Turned over on downs, from 78 yards out to 42DownsNevada: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownUTEP: Punt, from 85 yards out to 64PuntQ4Nevada: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownUTEP: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNevada: Uncategorized, from 60 yards out to 90Uncategorized

Box score

Nevada 30, UTEP 13

Nevada covered −10 by 7. The total, 43, stayed under 48.5.

NevadaUTEPTotal yardsNevada 376UTEP 211376211Passing yardsNevada 102UTEP 132102132Rushing yardsNevada 274UTEP 7927479First downsNevada 21UTEP 9219TurnoversNevada 1UTEP 010Time of possessionNevada 35:26UTEP 24:3435:2624:34
Team totalsNevadaUTEP
Total yards376211
Passing13 of 22, 102 yds16 of 26, 132 yds
Rushing51 for 274 yds25 for 79 yds
First downs219
Third down4 of 131 of 14
Fourth down1 of 13 of 4
Turnovers10
Penalties8 for 54 yds7 for 79 yds
Time of possession35:2624:34

Nevada leaders

  • Passing Carter Jones 11 of 19, 82 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Herschel Turner 19 for 192 yds, 1 TD; Dominic Kelley 22 for 99 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Gary Givens III 5 for 46 yds; Dominic Kelley 1 for 21 yds, 1 TD

UTEP leaders

  • Passing Raymond Moore III 16 of 26, 132 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Raymond Moore III 15 for 65 yds; Lamar Sperling 3 for 10 yds
  • Receiving Jaden Smith 4 for 56 yds, 1 TD; Kam Thomas 6 for 32 yds

No rain and calm

85° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 13 mph from the south-southeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 24

The usual here around this date is 72°, with about 7 in 10 games between 64° and 80°.

October game-day temperatures at Sun Bowl

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4UTEP favoredNevada favored0%Win chanceUTEPRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4UTEP favoredNevada favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:55 left5:06 p.m.
Nevada 0, UTEP 0 · UTEP 31% to win
no rain · wind 14 mph from the southeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 24 · 84°
Moore 5-yd pass to Cheeks
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at El Paso International Airport, 8.2 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Nevada · 1-3

Rated 229th in our preseason ratings, 177th now, up 52 spots.

1-3 in its last 4, including a 35-point win over Western Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog.

L 33-36 vs Air Force #88 of 668

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 33-36 vs Air Force. Chance to win started at 47%, low under 1%, high 67%.

L 20-27 @ Middle Tennessee #124 of 668

lost by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 7-20 vs Montana State #75 of 668

lost by 13 as a 4.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 7-20 vs Montana State. Chance to win started at 37%, low under 1%, high 38%.

W 49-14 vs Western Kentucky #47 of 668

won by 35 as a 1.5-point underdog

Nevada won 49-14 vs Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 54%, low 54%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

UTEP · 1-4

Rated 212th in our preseason ratings, 219th now.

Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.

L 7-61 @ New Mexico #51 of 668

lost by 54 as a 23.5-point underdog

UTEP lost 7-61 at New Mexico. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 7%.

L 7-33 vs Oregon State #52 of 668

lost by 26 as an 11.5-point underdog

UTEP lost 7-33 vs Oregon State. Chance to win started at 27%, low under 1%, high 27%.

L 17-52 @ MichiganTop 25 #21 of 668

lost by 35 as a 34.5-point underdog

UTEP lost 17-52 at Michigan. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 9%.

W 51-10 vs Texas Southern #207 of 668

won by 41 as a 27.5-point favorite

UTEP won 51-10 vs Texas Southern. Chance to win started at 97%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

L 0-51 @ OklahomaTop 25 #19 of 668

lost by 51 as a 40.5-point underdog

Week by week

UTEP

Wk 1: L 0-51 at Oklahoma▼51OklahomaWk 2: W 51-10 vs Texas Southern▲41T. South…Wk 3: L 17-52 at Michigan▼35MichiganWk 4: L 7-33 vs Oregon State▼26Oregon S…Wk 5: L 7-61 at New Mexico▼54N. Mexico
  • Wk 1Lat Oklahoma0-51
  • Wk 2Wvs Texas Southern51-10
  • Wk 3Lat Michigan17-52
  • Wk 4Lvs Oregon State7-33
  • Wk 5Lat New Mexico7-61

Nevada

Wk 1: W 49-14 vs Western Kentucky▲35W. KentuckyWk 2: L 7-20 vs Montana State▼13Montana St.Wk 3: L 20-27 at Middle Tennessee▼7M. TennesseeWk 4: L 33-36 vs Air Force▼3Air Force
  • Wk 1Wvs Western Kentucky49-14
  • Wk 2Lvs Montana State7-20
  • Wk 3Lat Middle Tennessee20-27
  • Wk 4Lvs Air Force33-36

Power rating by week

Nevada is rated 1.8 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-7-9-11Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5UTEPNevada

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Nevada’s rushing EPA against UTEP, 65 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. UTEP’s success rate against Nevada’s defense

    59 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UTEP offense, 4th percentile · Nevada defense, 63rd

  2. Nevada’s rushing EPA against UTEP’s defense

    65 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Nevada offense, 74th percentile · UTEP defense, 9th

  3. UTEP’s explosive plays against Nevada’s defense

    42 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UTEP offense, 85th percentile · Nevada defense, 43rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

NevadaUTEP
EPA/play, offense
Nevada · 32UTEP · 2
EPA/play, defense
Nevada · 32UTEP · 7
Success rate, offense
Nevada · 26UTEP · 4
Success rate, defense
Nevada · 63UTEP · 8
Explosive-play rate, offense
Nevada · 78UTEP · 85
Explosive-play rate, defense
Nevada · 43UTEP · 45
Rush EPA, offense
Nevada · 74UTEP · 22
Rush EPA, defense
Nevada · 19UTEP · 9
Pass EPA, offense
Nevada · 18UTEP · 2
Pass EPA, defense
Nevada · 39UTEP · 4

The series

Nevada leads the series 3-1

4 meetings since 2000 · Nevada has won the last 3

  • 2019Nevada 37-21UTEP lost 21-37 vs Nevada. Chance to win started at 21%, low 1%, high 42%.
  • 2002Nevada 23-17
  • 2001Nevada 48-31
  • 2000UTEP 45-22

Each line is UTEP’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Nevada fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (88th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 39%
  • Line · 21%
  • UTEP fans · 67th
  • Nevada fans · 88th

Nevada favored by 10 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Nevada by 10, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Nevada.

opened +9.5now +10

The total fell 1 point.

opened 49.5now 48.5

Spread: +9.5 → +10 · Total: 49.5 → 48.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UTEP is worth +4.3 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 55th percentile.

26% at home, 16% on the road against FBS opponents (10-29 home, 8-42 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.9 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±5.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 919 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Mountain West standings