San José State beats UTEP 24-11
Team pages: San José State · UTEP
San José State beat UTEP 24-11. Share this game
We had San José State favored. It won.
Next: San José State at Nevada, Sat Oct 24 · 5:00 PM ET · San José State underdog by 5.5
Next: UTEP at North Dakota State, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: 61-yd punt, Thomas returns it 8 (Q4, 0:38). San José State went from 80% to 98% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave San José State a 77% chance, and the closing betting line (San José State was a 6.5-point favorite) put it at 70%.
A tight one: San José State bottomed out at 49% and won.
UTEP never had better than a 51% chance.
San José State 24-11 UTEP
San José State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.UTEP 11-24 San José StateUTEP lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 7:59Rolovich 11-yd TD pass to Clark, San José State goes ahead 7-0San José State 67% → 82% (+15)
- 2Q4 0:38Special teams61-yd punt, Thomas returns it 8San José State 80% → 98% (+18)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 7:59Rolovich 11-yd TD pass to Clark, San José State goes ahead 7-0UTEP 33% → 18% (−15)
- 2Q4 0:38Special teams61-yd punt, Thomas returns it 8UTEP 20% → 2% (−18)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (San José State -6.5), at 49% for San José State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
San José State scored on 4 of its 10 drives; UTEP on 2 of its 11.
San José State’s drives are teal, UTEP’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From UTEP’s side
UTEP’s best moment: 39-yd punt, Ivey returns it 0 (Q2 10:01). It lifted UTEP’s win chance by 14 points.
What it cost
San José State’s chance to win the conference rose from 3% to 4%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 17, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
San José State plays at Nevada on Sat Oct 24 with a 4% chance to win the conference.
Box score
San José State 24, UTEP 11
San José State covered −6.5 by 6.5. The total, 35, stayed under 46.5.
| Team totals | San José State | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 426 | 462 |
| Passing | 12 of 23, 193 yds | 25 of 34, 282 yds |
| Rushing | 35 for 233 yds | 50 for 180 yds |
| First downs | 17 | 27 |
| Third down | 6 of 13 | 5 of 16 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | 4 for 40 yds | 4 for 40 yds |
| Time of possession | 24:43 | 35:17 |
San José State leaders
- Passing Daniel Rolovich 12 of 23, 193 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Viliami Teu 20 for 156 yds, 2 TD; Daniel Rolovich 9 for 39 yds
- Receiving Carson Clark 5 for 104 yds, 1 TD; Anthony Ivey 2 for 50 yds
UTEP leaders
- Passing Raymond Moore III 19 of 28, 195 yds
- Rushing Tavorus Jones 14 for 62 yds; Raymond Moore III 19 for 55 yds
- Receiving Kam Thomas 4 for 96 yds; Jaden Smith 12 for 90 yds
No rain and calm
61° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 8 mph from the east, mostly across the field, gusts to 16
The usual here around this date is 70°, with about 7 in 10 games between 62° and 79°.
October game-day temperatures at Sun Bowl
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at El Paso International Airport, 8.2 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
San José State · 3-3
Rated 151st in our preseason ratings, 126th now, up 25 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Hawai'i as a 2.5-point underdog.
Last three games
UTEP · 1-5
Rated 212th in our preseason ratings, 239th now.
Three straight losses.
L 0-51 @ OklahomaTop 25 #19 of 668
lost by 51 as a 40.5-point underdog
Week by week
UTEP
- Wk 2Wvs Texas Southern51-10
- Wk 3Lat Michigan17-52
- Wk 4Lvs Oregon State7-33
- Wk 5Lat New Mexico7-61
- Wk 6Lvs Nevada13-30
San José State
- Wk 1Wat Eastern Michigan27-21
- Wk 2Wvs Cal Poly30-20
- Wk 3Lvs Fresno State10-26
- Wk 5Wat Hawai'i20-16
- Wk 6Lvs Wyoming13-16
Power rating by week
San José State is rated 6.7 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: UTEP’s passing EPA against San José State, 63 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
UTEP’s passing EPA against San José State’s defense
UTEP offense, 2nd percentile · San José State defense, 65th
UTEP’s EPA/play against San José State’s defense
UTEP offense, 2nd percentile · San José State defense, 45th
San José State’s explosive plays against UTEP’s defense
San José State offense, 29th percentile · UTEP defense, 45th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
The series is tied 5-5
10 meetings since 1966 · UTEP won the last meeting
- 2004UTEP 38-20
- 2003San José State 69-41
- 2002San José State 58-24
- 2001San José State 40-28
- 2000UTEP 47-30
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
UTEP fans are in a better mood than San José State fans (96th vs 85th among FBS fanbases), even with San José State favored.
San José State favored by 6.5 · Total 46.5
How games like this usually go
San José State by 6.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3.5 points toward UTEP.
The total fell 6 points.
Spread: +10 → +6.5 · Total: 52.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
UTEP is worth +4.3 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 55th percentile.
26% at home, 16% on the road against FBS opponents (10-29 home, 8-42 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.9 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±5.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 953 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- UTEP8th0-2
- San José State6th1-1