Mercyhurst at New Mexico
Fan take
New Mexico fans
How they got here
Last two games
Mercyhurst · 0-2
Picked #225 in the preseason · now #224 — about right.
Two straight losses, each by 20 or more.
L 14–51 @ New Mexico State #145 of 669
lost by 37 as a 29.5-point underdog
L 10–43 @ Youngstown State #125 of 669
lost by 33 as a 30.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
New Mexico · 9-4
Picked #74 in the preseason · now #83.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 6-point win over San Diego State as a 1.5-point underdog.
L 17–20 @ Minnesota #70 of 668
lost by 3 as a 2-point underdog
W 23–17 vs San Diego State #61 of 668
won by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 20–3 @ Air Force #142 of 668
won by 17 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 20–17 vs Colorado State #177 of 668
won by 3 as a 15.5-point favorite
W 40–35 @ UNLV #119 of 668
won by 5 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 33–14 vs Utah State #145 of 668
won by 19 as a 3-point favorite
W 24–22 vs Nevada #173 of 668
won by 2 as a 14.5-point favorite
L 25–41 @ Boise StateTop 25 #32 of 668
lost by 16 as a 15.5-point underdog
L 28–35 @ San José State #101 of 668
lost by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 38–20 vs New Mexico State #253 of 668
won by 18 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 35–10 @ UCLA #93 of 668
won by 25 as a 15.5-point underdog
W 32–22 vs Idaho State #210 of 668
won by 10 as a 17.5-point favorite
L 17–34 @ MichiganTop 25 #17 of 668
lost by 17 as a 34.5-point underdog
What’s at stake
Mercyhurst
- Mercyhurst needs 6 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Mercyhurst is still shaking off a 63-point loss.
New Mexico
- A win puts New Mexico a step closer to a 4% shot at the CFP field.
- New Mexico is coming off a 63-point win.
The series
New Mexico leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2026 · New Mexico won the last meeting
- 2026New Mexico 70–7
Best players
New Mexico
- Scottre Humphrey (RB) · 174 rushing yards
- Mercury Swaim (LB) · 10 tackles
- Clay Martineau (LB) · 9 tackles
The line, and the room
The model and the market are in lockstep on New Mexico’s chances here.
Home −42.5 · O/U 54.5
Conditions
91°F · 7 mph wind · Light Rain
New Mexico is worth +2.4 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 21st percentile.
38% at home, 24% on the road against FBS opponents (15–25 home, 11–35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.2 at home vs. away over 74 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
5,100 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 1,507 miles to get here.
Mercyhurst 7 – New Mexico 70
Called it — picked New Mexico to win.
Recent games
New Mexico
- Wk 1Wvs Central Michigan38-7
Mercyhurst
- Wk 1Lat Youngstown State10-43
- Wk 1Lat New Mexico State14-51
Trajectory
New Mexico won 70-7, as picked pregame.