New Mexico 21-10 Hawai'i (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: New Mexico · Hawai'i

New Mexico5-121

Hawai'i1-610Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, Hawaii · Crowd 12,941

New Mexico beat Hawai'i 21-10.

We had New Mexico favored. It won.

Next: New Mexico vs North Dakota State, Sat Oct 24 · 10:00 PM ET · New Mexico favored by 4.5

Next: Hawai'i at Northern Illinois, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Hawai'i favored by 4

Top comment in the game thread

I might blow my shi smooth off

Q2 2:07 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Alejado 12-yd run, fumbles (Q4, 14:01). New Mexico went from 39% to 58% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave New Mexico a 92% chance, and the closing betting line (New Mexico was a 14.5-point favorite) put it at 88%.

A tight one: New Mexico bottomed out at 36% and won.

Hawai'i led by 10 but, as a 14.5-point underdog, never had better than a 64% chance.

21 unanswered

New Mexico · Q4 6:57

FinalNew Mexico 21-10 Hawai'iNew Mexico wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 14:01FumbleAlejado 12-yd run, fumblesNew Mexico 39% → 58% (+19)
2Q4 6:57Fa'avae 21-yd TD run, New Mexico goes ahead 14-10New Mexico 61% → 78% (+17)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 14:01FumbleAlejado 12-yd run, fumblesHawai'i 61% → 42% (−19)
2Q4 6:57Fa'avae 21-yd TD run, New Mexico goes ahead 14-10Hawai'i 39% → 22% (−17)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 2:07New Mexico fans react with shock to an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on their teamWhat on earth am I watchingr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q2 0:06Fans argue officials missed offensive pass interference on Alejado's touchdown passIt's okay, brother. Both fanbases are hatewatching their teams.r/CFB game threadSeriously, these fucking refs.r/CFB game thread
Q4 3:24Humphrey runs 49 yards for a touchdown to make it 21-10TF I WAS MESSING WITH MY TV AND MISSED LIKE 5 SECONDS AND IT WAS A TD???r/CFB game thread

New Mexico’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (New Mexico -14.5), at 79% for New Mexico (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Hawai'i or New Mexico flair (79 and 78); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show New Mexico’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

New Mexico scored on 3 of its 12 drives; Hawai'i on 2 of its 11.

New Mexico’s drives are teal, Hawai'i’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Hawai'i’s side

Hawai'i’s best moment: Fa'avae intercepted by Hughes at the Hawai'i 48 (Q1 11:12). It lifted Hawai'i’s win chance by 15 points.

“The team that ran the ball 95% of the time tonight somehow finds a open hole in the middle”

A fan of another team

When fans got loud

Busy

It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

Too close to call on 58% of plays.

What it cost

New Mexico’s chance to make the playoff rose from 4% to 5%.

Make the playoff

New Mexico · won4% → ▲5%

Hawai'i · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

New Mexico · won37% → ▲41%

Hawai'i · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 17, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

New Mexico plays vs North Dakota State on Sat Oct 24 with a 5% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

New Mexico 21, Hawai'i 10

Hawai'i covered +14.5 by 3.5. The total, 31, stayed under 46.5.

Team totals	New Mexico	Hawai'i
Total yards	337	298
Passing	6 of 11, 94 yds	23 of 40, 250 yds
Rushing	48 for 243 yds	27 for 48 yds
First downs	16	20
Third down	5 of 13	3 of 13
Fourth down	3 of 3	0 of 0
Turnovers	3	2
Penalties	16 for 145 yds	7 for 80 yds
Time of possession	31:56	28:04

New Mexico leaders

Passing Toa Faavae 5 of 10, 59 yds, 2 INT
Rushing Scottre Humphrey 15 for 90 yds, 2 TD; Kiefer Sibley 17 for 87 yds
Receiving Toa Faavae 1 for 35 yds; Bailen George 1 for 22 yds

Hawai'i leaders

Passing Micah Alejado 23 of 40, 250 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Cam Barfield 12 for 34 yds; Devon Rice 5 for 10 yds
Receiving Devin Alves 5 for 76 yds; Kainoa Carvalho 3 for 49 yds

No rain, gusts to 28 mph

84° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 13 mph from the northeast, gusts to 28

A 28 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 92% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 14:01 left7:22 p.m.

New Mexico 7, Hawai'i 10 · Hawai'i 42% to win

no rain · wind 13 mph from the east-northeast · 84°

Alejado 12-yd run, fumbles

The same game in two conditions

	Wind 15 mph or more	Lighter wind
Runs and passes	16	103
Share that were passes	38%	45%
Yards per play	3.5	5.8
Turnovers	0	5

The numbers are small: read it as a description, not a result.

How this is counted

Wind means an 11-minute average of 15 mph or more at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Honolulu airport, 6.8 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

New Mexico · 4-1

Rated 73rd in our preseason ratings, 49th now, up 24 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 61-7 vs UTEP #219 of 668

won by 54 as a 23.5-point favorite

W 42-18 @ New Mexico State #149 of 668

won by 24 as an 11.5-point favorite

L 6-14 @ OklahomaTop 25 #18 of 668

lost by 8 as a 21.5-point underdog

W 70-7 vs Mercyhurst #240 of 668

won by 63 as a 42.5-point favorite

W 38-7 vs Central Michigan #120 of 668

won by 31 as an 11.5-point favorite

Last three games

Hawai'i · 1-5

Rated 59th in our preseason ratings, 130th now.

Three straight losses.

L 12-30 @ Arizona State #68 of 668

lost by 18 as a 20.5-point underdog

L 16-20 vs San José State #125 of 668

lost by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 10-27 @ Wyoming #121 of 668

lost by 17 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 29-19 vs New Mexico State #140 of 668

won by 10 as a 7.5-point favorite

L 6-21 vs UNLV #91 of 668

lost by 15 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 27-37 @ Stanford #93 of 668

lost by 10 as a 4.5-point underdog

Week by week

Hawai'i

Wk 1Lvs UNLV6-21
Wk 2Wvs New Mexico State29-19
Wk 4Lat Wyoming10-27
Wk 5Lvs San José State16-20
Wk 6Lat Arizona State12-30

New Mexico

Wk 1Wvs Central Michigan38-7
Wk 2Wvs Mercyhurst70-7
Wk 3Lat Oklahoma6-14
Wk 4Wat New Mexico State42-18
Wk 5Wvs UTEP61-7

Power rating by week

New Mexico is rated 7.6 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Hawai'i’s EPA/play against New Mexico, 87 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Hawai'i’s EPA/play against New Mexico’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 13th percentile · New Mexico defense, 100th
Hawai'i’s passing EPA against New Mexico’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 14th percentile · New Mexico defense, 97th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

New MexicoHawai'i

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Hawai'i leads the series 17-11

28 meetings since 1964 · Hawai'i won the last meeting

2024Hawai'i 38-30
2023New Mexico 42-21
2020Hawai'i 39-33
2019Hawai'i 45-31
2016New Mexico 28-21

Each line is Hawai'i’s chance to win through that meeting. Hawai'i is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

New Mexico fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (55th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

New Mexico favored by 14.5 · Total 46.5

How games like this usually go

New Mexico by 14.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Hawai'i.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.0%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Hawai'i is worth +5.9 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 80th percentile.

58% at home, 27% on the road against FBS opponents (29-21 home, 13-35 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.5 at home vs. away over 105 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 3,222 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Hawai'i9th0-3
New Mexico6th1-0

Full Mountain West standings

New Mexico beats Hawai'i 21-10