Hawai'i at Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois (0‑6) hosts Hawai'i (1‑6). The market has Hawai'i favored by 4.5. Hawai'i’s passing offense is at the 13th percentile; Northern Illinois’s pass defense is at the 100th.
How they got here
Last three games
Hawai'i · 1-6
Rated 59th in our preseason ratings, 137th now.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Northern Illinois · 0-6
Rated 101st in our preseason ratings, 170th now.
Three straight losses.
Biggest mismatch: Hawai'i’s passing EPA against Northern Illinois, 87 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Hawai'i’s passing EPA against Northern Illinois’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 13th percentile · Northern Illinois defense, 100th
Hawai'i’s explosive plays against Northern Illinois’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 13th percentile · Northern Illinois defense, 54th
Hawai'i’s success rate against Northern Illinois’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 18th percentile · Northern Illinois defense, 1st
What’s at stake
Hawai'i
- Hawai'i is 3 games back in Mountain West with 3 left to make it up.
- Hawai'i hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2021.
Northern Illinois
- Northern Illinois is 3 games back in Mountain West with 5 left to make it up.
- Northern Illinois is still shaking off a 18-point loss.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Hawai'i
The chip · vs the national mediaWarrior fans are sick of being the road trip nobody wants and the time zone nobody watches — a program that has to win twice as convincingly to get half the respect, and knows the mainland forgets it exists by Sunday morning.
What this game touches
The 2008 Sugar Bowl blowout. The unbeaten 2007 dream — Colt Brennan, a No. 10 final ranking, the first non-BCS island team to crash the party — ended 41-10 against Georgia, a national stage that doubled as the doubters' favorite exhibit that the islands couldn't hang.
Northern Illinois
The chip · vs the blue bloodsDeKalb walked into one of the sport's cathedrals as a four-touchdown underdog and walked out with the win — and the national story was the giant who lost, not the Huskies who won. The fanbase keeps the receipts: the scoreboard said Northern Illinois.
Best players
Hawai'i
- Jamih Otis (LB) · 50 tackles
- Micah Alejado (QB) · 1,863 passing yards
- Kona Moore (DB) · 46 tackles
Northern Illinois
- Jack Murray (LB) · 43 tackles
- Kyon Conyers (S) · 42 tackles
- Brady Kerperin (LB) · 41 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Micah Alejado (QB) — Hawai'i’s leading passer (1,863 passing yards) takes on Northern Illinois’s pass defense (100th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 3.0 points toward Northern Illinois since opening (+7.5 → +4.5).
The total has moved up 2.0 points since opening (45.5 → 47.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Northern Illinois fans are in a better mood than Hawai'i fans (74th vs 44th among FBS fanbases), even with Hawai'i favored.
Hawai'i favored by 4.5 · Total 47.5
Hawai'i by 4.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Hawai'i’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Huskie Stadium: noon Saturdays score 87, 7:30 pm Saturdays 82
Hawai'i at Northern Illinois · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 3:30 pm ET · Huskie Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Huskie Stadium: noon Saturdays score 87, 3:30 pm 84, 7:30 pm 82.
- noon: 87, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 84, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 82, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Northern Illinois is worth +1.7 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 14th percentile.
39% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (15-23 home, 19-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.0 at home vs. away over 96 games — outside the ±5.7 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 4,188 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Northern Illinois
- Wk 2Lvs Illinois State24-28
- Wk 3Lat Arizona17-42
- Wk 4Lat Georgia State14-35
- Wk 6Lvs Air Force7-28
- Wk 7Lat Wyoming23-41
Hawai'i
- Wk 2Wvs New Mexico State29-19
- Wk 4Lat Wyoming10-27
- Wk 5Lvs San José State16-20
- Wk 6Lat Arizona State12-30
- Wk 7Lvs New Mexico10-21
Power rating by week
Hawai'i is rated 2.0 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Northern Illinois.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: +7.5 → +4.5 · Total: 45.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Northern Illinois8th0-2
- Hawai'i10th0-4