CFB Zeitgeist Score
62
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 99th percentile.
Blake Horvath
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,580 PASS YDS · 12 PASS TD · 1,200 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Navy for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Navy · editorial
Returning around him
- 97% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- 2 Navy players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -3 net (0 in / 3 out)
2026 Award watch
- Davey O'Brien
Navy · Last season: 11-2 (AP #22) · 2026 recruiting class #131
QB · NAVY · AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Blake Horvath
- 4
- #11
- 6-2 | 195 lb
- Hilliard, OH
Heisman Heat
#11
2.8% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
2.8%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 4 · EliteR12 · All-American
All-American. Named to an NCAA-recognized All-America team.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
3 seasons on the ladder
2023
Navy · QB
—
2024
Navy · QB
R08 · Watch-list name
Recognized
★
2025
Navy · QB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2023–2025+1781%
Up 1781% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Navy
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Money Efficiency 0.1% Money Efficiency Top-5 in YPA among P4 + Notre Dame QBs (min 150 attempts). Held by 0.1% of the 2025 pool. #1 YPA at 9.90 among qualified QBs.
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (1200).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Blake Horvath
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=8
- National · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Blake Horvath
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 12g
1,580Pass yards
12Pass TDs
6INT
Per game
131.7Pass yards
1Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
1,712Pass yards
13Pass TDs
6INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 1,580): needs 1,420/game over remaining 1.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 1,580): needs 2,420/game over remaining 1.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 12): needs 13/game over remaining 1.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 12): needs 18/game over remaining 1.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 12): needs 23/game over remaining 1.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Blake Horvath's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Navy, he has 1,580 passing yards and 12 touchdown passes, but he also adds 1,200 rushing yards and 16 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Steady volume | Vertical threat | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
97 64th
ATT
159 66th
CMP%
61.0% 49th
Y/A
9.9 92nd
Passing Production
YDS
1,580 72nd
TD
12 79th
INT
6 28th
Rushing
CAR
224 100th
YDS
1,200 100th
YPC
5.4 80th
TD
16 100th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 52-7vs VMI | 6/7 | 66 | 1 | 0 | 9.4 | 66.5 | |
| Wk 2 | W 38-24vs UAB | 6/8 | 168 | 1 | 0 | 21.0 | 60.4 | |
| Wk 3 | W 42-23@ Tulsa | 6/10 | 94 | 1 | 2 | 9.4 | 72.2 | |
| Wk 5 | W 21-13vs Rice | 8/13 | 172 | 0 | 1 | 13.2 | 67.7 | |
| Wk 6 | W 34-31vs Air Force | 20/26 | 339 | 3 | 0 | 13.0 | 71.2 | Season-high 339 yds |
| Wk 7 | W 32-31@ Temple | 6/16 | 141 | 1 | 0 | 8.8 | 87.8 | |
| Wk 9 | W 42-32vs Florida Atlantic | 8/12 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 | 63.1 | |
| Wk 10 | L 17-31@ North Texas | 8/14 | 80 | 0 | 2 | 5.7 | 23.1 | |
| Wk 12 | W 41-38vs South Florida | 8/15 | 147 | 1 | 0 | 9.8 | 59.7 | |
| Wk 14 | W 28-17@ Memphis | 5/9 | 100 | 1 | 0 | 11.1 | 93.0 | |
| Wk 16 | W 17-16vs Army | 7/14 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 5.9 | 20.2 | |
| Bowl | W 35-13@ Cincinnati | 9/15 | 108 | 2 | 0 | 7.2 | — | |
| Total | 97/159 | 1580 | 12 | 6 | 10.1 | 62.3 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Navy5-7HC: Brian Newberry · Run-heavy, slow tempo
2024Navy10-3HC: Brian Newberry · Run-heavy
2025Navy11-2HC: Brian Newberry · Run-heavy
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 1,580 | #108/382 | 72nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 12 | #88/407 | 79th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 97 | #138/383 | 64th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 61.0% | #197/383 | 49th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 9.9 | #33/382 | 92nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 1,200 | #2/408 | 100th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.41 | #25/200 | 88th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 155 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 47.3% | #101/428 | 77th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 159 | #138/407 | 66th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 6 | #294/407 | 28th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 224 | #2/408 | 100th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 59 | #24/391 | 94th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 16 | #3/408 | 100th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.4 | #84/407 | 80th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 88.9% | #73/428 | 83rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 63.1% | #92/428 | 79th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 59.9% | #103/428 | 76th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 44.4% | #118/428 | 73rd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 43.8% | #79/428 | 82nd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 42.4% | #96/428 | 78th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 35.0% | #8/428 | 98th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.28 | #51/140 | 64th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 220 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 5 | #252/258 | 3rd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 151 | 1.0 | 11.3 | 0.3 |
| Road5g | 105 | 1.0 | 8.4 | 0.8 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins11g | 136 | 1.1 | 10.5 | 0.4 |
| Losses1g | 80.0 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 155 | 1.3 | 11.7 | 0.4 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 98.4 | 0.6 | 7.9 | 0.6 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
62Solid starter
Elite: yards / att (99th). Strength: rush yards (99th). Concern: fumbles lost (2nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds44%of completions
22 comp5.6 yds avg1 TD
Middle
10–19 yds20%of completions
10 comp13.4 yds avg2 TD
Deep
20+ yds36%of completions
18 comp41.2 yds avg4 TD
Overall 64.1% completion on 78 attempts · 18 deep completions averaging 41.2 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Elite: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.41High (p75–p90) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.28Mid (p50–p75) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Blake HorvathNavyBryson BarnesUtah State· 82% simJake RetzlaffTulane· 81% simBear BachmeierBYU· 78% sim
Yards / att
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Interceptions
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Completion %
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Dual Threat
Dangerous with both arm and legs — defenses can't just pin the ears back.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Blake Horvath’s 2024 season.
Blake Horvath
65%match
#2
Colton Joseph
All-Sun Belt
60%
#3
Max Duggan
NFL Rd 7
51%
#4
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
NFL Rd 5
48%
#5
Dequan Finn
46%
Differs from Blake on
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Rush yards / carry (lower)
INT rate (higher)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Cardell Williams’s path through Sacramento State.
Cardell Williams
79%match
#2
Tyler Johnston III
76%
#3
Aaron Philo
72%
#4
Austin Simmons
72%
#5
Dru DeShields
72%
Matches Cardell on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Bryson Daily's junior season at Army (2024).
Bryson Daily
42%match
All-AAC
#2
Dequan Finn
All-MAC
35%
#3
Jason Bean
32%
#4
Diego Pavia
Unitas Golden ArmAll-Conference USA
31%
#5
Cooper Legas
29%
Matches Bryson on
Yards / attempt
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Differs from Bryson on
Weight (lower)
Rush usage (lower)
Height (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Brian Newberry
Pass share
22.5%
182 pass / 626 run
Plays / game
62.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.2%
138 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
Brian Newberry
Navy
2024
Brian Newberry
Navy
2025
Brian Newberry
Navy
Played his entire career under Brian Newberry.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownHilliard, OH
Height6'2"
Weight195 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey11
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamNavy
ConferenceAmerican Athletic
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-AAC
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-AAC | all_conference | Navy | AAC | QB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Navy | QB4 | #11 | #11 | 2.8% | 13.4% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | American Athletic |
| 2023 | Navy | QB4 | #1171 | #1342 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | American Athletic |
| 2022 | Navy | QB4 | #2157 | #2247 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | American Athletic |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Navy | American Athletic | QB | 4 | No. 11 | 6-2 | 195 lb | Hilliard, OH |
| 2024 | Navy | American Athletic | QB | 4 | No. 11 | 6-2 | 195 lb | Hilliard, OH |
| 2023 | Navy | American Athletic | QB | 4 | No. 11 | 6-2 | 195 lb | Hilliard, OH |
| 2022 | Navy | American Athletic | QB | 4 | No. 11 | 6-2 | 195 lb | Hilliard, OH |