Northern Illinois at UNLV
Northern Illinois (0‑6) at UNLV (4‑3) — no line posted yet, but the model favors UNLV (86%). Northern Illinois’s passing offense is at the 9th percentile; UNLV’s pass defense is at the 83rd.
How they got here
Last three games
Northern Illinois · 0-6
Rated 101st in our preseason ratings, 169th now.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
UNLV · 4-3
Rated 91st in our preseason ratings, 83rd now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 6-point win over North Dakota State as a 3-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Northern Illinois’s passing EPA against UNLV, 74 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Northern Illinois’s passing EPA against UNLV’s defense
Northern Illinois offense, 9th percentile · UNLV defense, 83rd
Northern Illinois’s EPA/play against UNLV’s defense
Northern Illinois offense, 5th percentile · UNLV defense, 45th
What’s at stake
Northern Illinois
- Northern Illinois is 3 games back in Mountain West with 4 left to make it up.
- Northern Illinois is still shaking off a 18-point loss.
UNLV
- UNLV is 1 game back in Mountain West with 4 left to make it up.
- Dan Mullen is behind Barry Odom’s year-2 pace (4-3 vs. 6-1) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
The series
Northern Illinois leads the series 5-0
5 meetings since 1987 · Northern Illinois has won the last 5
- 2015Northern Illinois 38-30
- 2014Northern Illinois 48-34
- 1995Northern Illinois 62-14
- 1989Northern Illinois 42-24
- 1987Northern Illinois 34-31
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Northern Illinois
The chip · vs the blue bloodsDeKalb walked into one of the sport's cathedrals as a four-touchdown underdog and walked out with the win — and the national story was the giant who lost, not the Huskies who won. The fanbase keeps the receipts: the scoreboard said Northern Illinois.
UNLV
The chip · vs the national mediaRebels fans are tired of being treated as a novelty act — the casino-town team nobody took seriously. They'll tell you UNLV has been one of the best stories in the Group of Five for three years running, even if the rankings keep forgetting.
What this game touches
The title game keeps ending the same way. UNLV went 10-3 in Dan Mullen's first year, 2025, and reached the Mountain West championship game — only to lose 38-21 to Boise State, the Rebels' third straight title-game defeat to the Broncos, then fell to Ohio 17-10 in the Frisco Bowl. The program is good enough to get to the last game and hasn't yet been good enough to win it.
Best players
Northern Illinois
- Jack Murray (LB) · 43 tackles
- Kyon Conyers (S) · 42 tackles
- Brady Kerperin (LB) · 41 tackles
UNLV
- Jake Pope (S) · 63 tackles
- Cam Santee (LB) · 53 tackles
- Tre Fulton (DB) · 51 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Northern Illinois fans are in a better mood than UNLV fans (74th vs 36th among FBS fanbases), even with UNLV favored.
Home field
UNLV is worth +1.6 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 12th percentile.
48% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (20-22 home, 20-29 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.5 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 1,467 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
UNLV
- Wk 2Lat North Texas6-44
- Wk 4Wat Akron38-10
- Wk 5Wvs California39-31
- Wk 6Wvs North Dakota State13-7
- Wk 7Lat Air Force31-41
Northern Illinois
- Wk 2Lvs Illinois State24-28
- Wk 3Lat Arizona17-42
- Wk 4Lat Georgia State14-35
- Wk 6Lvs Air Force7-28
- Wk 7Lat Wyoming23-41
Power rating by week
UNLV is rated 6.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- UNLV6th2-1
- Northern Illinois8th0-2