cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Lucas Conti /UNLV

Lucas Conti

DL · UNLV · So · #94

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

22 TACKLES · 2.5 SACKS

IN PORTALIn transfer portal — destination TBD (from UNLV)

In Portal · 2026

In transfer portal

2025UNLV
DestinationTBD

DL · UNLV · MOUNTAIN WEST

Lucas Conti

  • 2
  • #94
  • 6-5 | 290 lb
  • Corona, CA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

54

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 85th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#9642

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DEFENSE AWARD

Nagurski

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1390 national
CFB
College
UNLV
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDL
Class2
Jersey94
Measurements6-5 | 290 lb
HometownCorona, CA
Primary teamUNLV

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1390 recruit
Composite rating 0.8503 HighSchool
Signed with UNLV 2023
Origin Centennial Corona, CA, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 3-star | 0.8503 No. 1390 recruit | HighSchool | UNLV

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination -- 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Withdrawn Jan 6, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 UNLV -> -- 3-star | Withdrawn

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#9642Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#9275Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to UNLV

Composite

0.8503

#1390 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Lucas Conti

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Lucas Conti

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 9g
22Tackles
4Tackles for loss
2.5Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.4Tackles for loss
0.3Sacks
Projected (13g)
32Tackles
5.8Tackles for loss
3.6Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 22): needs 14.5/game over remaining 4.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 22): needs 19.5/game over remaining 4.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 2.5): needs 0.9/game over remaining 4.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 2.5): needs 1.9/game over remaining 4.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Lucas Conti is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on UNLV's defense, with 2.5 sacks, 4.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #9642 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 2.5 sacks | 4.0 TFL

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 22 10 solo | #1869/4942 (62nd pct)
TFL 4.0 Backfield disruption | #738/4972 (85th pct)
Sacks 2.5 Pass-rush finish | #393/4972 (92nd pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.

High-disruption defender

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
22 62nd
SOLO
10 56th
TFL
4.0 85th
SACK
2.5 92nd
QBH
1 44th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 9 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 38-31vs Idaho State310.50.00
Wk 1W 38-21@ Sam Houston330.00.00
Wk 2W 30-23vs UCLA100.50.50
Wk 4W 41-38@ Miami (OH)100.00.00
Wk 6W 31-17@ Wyoming430.00.00
Wk 7W 51-48vs Air Force200.00.00
Wk 10L 35-40vs New Mexico622.01.00Season-high 6 tackles
Wk 12W 29-26vs Utah State100.00.00
Wk 15L 21-38@ Boise State111.01.00
Total22104.02.50
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023UNLV9-5HC: Barry Odom · Run-leaning
2024UNLV11-3HC: Barry Odom · Run-heavy
2025UNLV10-4HC: Dan Mullen · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025UNLV22104.02.5------
2024UNLV920.50.0------
2023UNLV1--0.00.0------
Career3 loaded seasons32124.52.5------
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 0 Coverage disruption
QB pressures 1 Quarterback hurries | #1051/1878 (44th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 22 #1869/4942 62nd pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 4.0 #738/4972 85th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 2.5 #393/4972 92nd pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 1 #1051/1878 44th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 10 #1996/4584 56th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 9 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home5g2.60.60.30.0
Road4g2.20.20.20.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins7g2.10.10.10.0
Losses2g3.51.51.00.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-76g2.30.20.10.0
Weeks 8+3g2.71.00.70.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort

54Mid-pack
6 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: sacks (85th). Concern: passes defended (17th).

Sacks#389 / 2975 · 85th pct
2.5defe
Tackles for loss#736 / 2975 · 73rd pct
4.0defe
QB hurries#1007 / 2975 · 55th pct
1defe
Tackles#1869 / 2975 · 36th pct
22defe
Solo tackles#1996 / 2975 · 31st pct
10defe
Passes defended#1916 / 2975 · 18th pct
0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DL · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Lucas ContiUNLVMarcAnthony ParkerNavy· 61% simJackson KuwatchMiami (OH)· 60% simJohnny Chaney Jr.Florida International· 59% sim
Sacks
85
Conti
80
Parker
96
Kuwatch
89
Jr.
Tackles for loss
73
Conti
87
Parker
96
Kuwatch
91
Jr.
QB hurries
55
Conti
88
Parker
55
Kuwatch
55
Jr.
Tackles
36
Conti
98
Parker
98
Kuwatch
99
Jr.
Solo tackles
31
Conti
96
Parker
95
Kuwatch
100
Jr.
Passes defended
18
Conti
18
Parker
48
Kuwatch
48
Jr.

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The 3-Tech Penetrator

Disruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield.

IDL

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Riley Van Poppel’s 2025 season.

Riley Van Poppel

85%match

Nebraska · 2025

#2

Jide Abasiri

USC · 2025

84%
#3

Pat Farrell

Illinois · 2025

82%
#4

Shemar Stewart

Texas A&M · 2023

NFL Rd 1 · Pk 17
82%
#5

Justin Eboigbe

Alabama · 2023

NFL Rd 4
82%

Matches Riley on

Class year
Height
Weight

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Riley Van Poppel's junior season at Nebraska (2025).

Riley Van Poppel

86%match

Nebraska · 2025

#2

Jeffson Lafontant

UCF · 2025

74%
#3

Chiddi Obiazor

Kansas State · 2025

73%
#4

T.J. Sanders

South Carolina · 2023

NFL Rd 2 · Pk 9
71%
#5

Keldric Faulk

Auburn · 2025

All-SECNFL Rd 1 · Pk 31
70%

Matches Riley on

Class year
Height
Weight

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Dan Mullen

Pass share

46.5%

423 pass / 487 run

Plays / game

65.0

14 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.8%

283 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

2 coaches
2023
Barry Odom
UNLV
2024
Barry Odom
UNLV
2025
Dan Mullen
UNLV
era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Barry Odom → Dan Mullen. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownCorona, CA
Height6'5"
Weight290 lb
Class2
PositionDL
Jersey94

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 UNLV DL2 #9642 #9275 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Mountain West
2023 UNLV DL2 #14206 #13923 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Mountain West

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 UNLV Mountain West DL 2 No. 94 | 6-5 | 290 lb | Corona, CA
2024 UNLV Mountain West DL 2 No. 94 | 6-5 | 290 lb | Corona, CA
2023 UNLV Mountain West DL 2 No. 94 | 6-5 | 290 lb | Corona, CA