CFB Zeitgeist Score
31
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 74th percentile.
Byron Cardwell
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
267 RUSH YDS · 1 RUSH TD · 48 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to San Diego State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Running back · San Diego State
Returning around him
- 80% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- 1 San Diego State player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: +0 net (26 in / 26 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
San Diego State · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #86 · 2026 recruiting class #78
RB · SAN DIEGO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Byron Cardwell
- 4
- #21
- 6-0 | 215 lb
- San Diego, CA
Heisman Heat
#898
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2021–2025-36%
Sharp dropoff (-36%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4-star | 0.9226 | No. 193 recruit | HighSchool | Oregon |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Oregon -> California | 3-star | 0.8900 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Oregon
Composite
0.9226
#193 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Byron Cardwell
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Byron Cardwell
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 10g
267Rush yards
48Carries
1Rush TDs
Per game
26.7Rush yards
5Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
347.1Rush yards
62Carries
1Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 267): needs 161/game over remaining 3.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 267): needs 244.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 267): needs 411/game over remaining 3.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 4.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 6.3/game over remaining 3.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Byron Cardwell's story is about how role and output meet each other. For San Diego State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
48 57th
YDS
267 61st
YPC
5.6 77th
TD
1 56th
Receiving
REC
5 43rd
YDS
108 72nd
YPR
21.6 98th
TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 42-0vs Stony Brook | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | |
| Wk 4 | W 34-0vs California | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 6 | W 45-24vs Colorado State | 15 | 129 | 8.6 | 1 | 22 | Season-high 129 yds |
| Wk 7 | W 44-10@ Nevada | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 | 20 | |
| Wk 9 | W 23-0@ Fresno State | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 10 | W 24-7vs Wyoming | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 11 | L 6-38@ Hawai'i | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 12 | W 17-7vs Boise State | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 13 | W 25-3vs San José State | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 5 | |
| Bowl | L 47-49vs North Texas | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Total | 48 | 267 | 4.7 | 1 | 22 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Oregon10-3HC: Bryan McClendon · Run-leaning
2022Oregon10-3HC: Dan Lanning · Run-leaning
2024California6-7HC: Justin Wilcox · Balanced
2025San Diego State9-4HC: Sean Lewis · Run-heavy
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State | 48 | 267 | 5.6 | 1 | -- |
| 2024 | California | 24 | 75 | 3.1 | 0 | -- |
| 2022 | Oregon | 11 | 76 | 6.9 | 1 | -- |
| 2021 | Oregon | 61 | 417 | 6.8 | 3 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 144 | 835 | 5.8 | 5 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State | 5 | 108 | 21.6 | 1 | -- |
| 2024 | California | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 | -- |
| 2022 | Oregon | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 1 | -- |
| 2021 | Oregon | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 15 | 176 | 11.7 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 267 | #286/735 | 61st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #323/739 | 56th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.6 | #172/735 | 77th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 5 | #315/552 | 43rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 108 | #155/548 | 72nd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.18 | #84/362 | 77th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 42 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 8.2% | #383/738 | 48th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 48 | #320/739 | 57th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 22 | #375/733 | 49th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 54 | #36/540 | 94th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 21.6 | #12/548 | 98th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #60/552 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 31.0 | #10/199 | 95th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 31 | #129/200 | 36th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick returns | 1 | #139/206 | 33rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 11.7% | #428/738 | 42nd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 10.3% | #348/738 | 53rd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 8.5% | #404/738 | 45th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 7.4% | #328/738 | 56th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 6.9% | #481/738 | 35th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 5.8% | #410/738 | 45th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 1.9% | #412/738 | 44th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 27.7 | 5.1 | 0.1 |
| Road3g | 24.3 | 3.8 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins8g | 31.9 | 4.7 | 0.1 |
| Losses2g | 6.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 41.6 | 5.4 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 11.8 | 3.9 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
31Below cohort
Concern: carries (7th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.18Mid (p50–p75) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Byron CardwellSan Diego StateKamari MoultonIowa· 53% simJeremiah CobbAuburn· 52% simTae MeadowsTroy· 51% sim
Yards / carry
Rec yards
Rush yards
Receptions
Long run
Rush TDs
Carries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Ari Broussard’s 2021 season.
Ari Broussard
77%match
#2
Kye Robichaux
76%
#3
Tayvon Ruley
75%
#4
Jaylon Armstead
71%
#5
Darwin Barlow
72%
Matches Ari on
Rush TD rate
Weight
EPA / carry (adj)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Kennedy Brooks’s path through Oklahoma.
Kennedy Brooks
91%match
#2
Elijah Tau-Tolliver
89%
#3
Bijan Robinson
Doak WalkerConsensus All-AmericanNFL Rd 1 · Pk 8
86%
#4
B.J. Baylor
85%
#5
Jonathon Brooks
NFL Rd 2 · Pk 14
83%
Matches Kennedy on
Weight
Yards per carry
Recruiting rating
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Pat Garwo III's senior season at Boston College (2023).
Pat Garwo III
71%match
#2
Jaziun Patterson
62%
#3
Kaelon Black
NFL Rd 3 · Pk 26
61%
#4
Jeff Sims
58%
#5
Aveon Smith
56%
Matches Pat on
EPA / carry (adj)
Weight
Receiving share
Differs from Pat on
Height (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Sean Lewis
Pass share
35.3%
290 pass / 532 run
Plays / game
63.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.6%
224 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Brady Hoke
San Diego State
2022
Brady Hoke
San Diego State
2024era →
Sean Lewis
San Diego State
2025
Sean Lewis
San Diego State
Coaching transition mid-career: Brady Hoke → Sean Lewis. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownSan Diego, CA
Height6'0"
Weight215 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey21
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamSan Diego State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | California | RB4 | #898 | #920 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | ACC |
| 2023 | California | RB4 | #2736 | #2788 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2022 | Oregon | RB4 | #621 | #481 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2021 | Oregon | RB4 | #252 | #199 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State | Mountain West | RB | 4 | No. 21 | 6-0 | 215 lb | San Diego, CA |
| 2024 | California | ACC | RB | 4 | No. 21 | 6-0 | 215 lb | San Diego, CA |
| 2023 | California | Pac-12 | RB | 4 | No. 21 | 6-0 | 215 lb | San Diego, CA |
| 2022 | Oregon | Pac-12 | RB | 4 | No. 21 | 6-0 | 215 lb | San Diego, CA |
| 2021 | Oregon | Pac-12 | RB | 4 | No. 21 | 6-0 | 215 lb | San Diego, CA |