Wisconsin 31-3 Michigan State (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Michigan State · Wisconsin

Michigan State2-33

Wisconsin4-131Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wis. · Crowd 67,001BTN

Wisconsin routed Michigan State 31-3.

We had Wisconsin favored. It won.

Next: Michigan State lost to Illinois 38-37, Sat Oct 10

Next: Wisconsin lost to UCLA 17-7, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

Jacob gotta have the biggest catch radius in CFB

Q1 1:01 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Wisconsin an 80% chance, and the closing betting line (Wisconsin was a 8.5-point favorite) put it at 75%.

FinalWisconsin 31-3 Michigan StateWisconsin wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 8:16A pass was caught despite a defender almost intercepting it.What a crazy TD!r/CFB game thread
Q1 8:03Michigan State fans lament another early injury to C. Moore on the first offensive playMSU S&C coach should be arrested for criminal negligence. This is crazy.r/CFB game thread
Q1 5:39The broadcast introduced a new mascot named Parry the Paramedic.Our new mascot is Parry . He's a paramedicr/CFB game thread
Q1 3:17Michigan State goes for it on fourth down, resulting in a turnover on downsGood play by Wisconsin’s corner. Liked the play and the throw, just a good play by them. I’m more upset that our offensive line can’t even slightly slow down a four man rush.r/CFB game thread
Q1 1:01Wisconsin fans celebrate Jacob Harris touchdown as Michigan State falls behind 14-0bomber harris. last 3 catches are tdsr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q2 0:46Fans call a soft pass interference flag on Milivojevic's incomplete passcall it that soft all game thenr/CFB game threadThat wasn’t PI The one before was lol make up callr/CFB game thread

Wisconsin’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Wisconsin -8.5), at 75% for Wisconsin (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Wisconsin or Michigan State flair (383 and 415); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Wisconsin’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Wisconsin scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Michigan State on 1 of its 11.

Wisconsin’s drives are teal, Michigan State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Man, I despise political ads”

A Wisconsin fan

How fans reacted

Steady

The loudest stretch came in the first quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Michigan State fans

program“Glad our pain can lead to joy for fans of program that I don’t despise.”

smith“Smith high school class before he got canned was ranked somewhere between 25-30. He was starting to cook”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, take, don, half.

Box score

Wisconsin 31, Michigan State 3

Wisconsin covered −8.5 by 19.5. The total, 34, stayed under 43.5.

Team totals	Michigan State	Wisconsin
Total yards	235	373
Passing	16 of 34, 108 yds	9 of 20, 145 yds
Rushing	45 for 127 yds	42 for 228 yds
First downs	19	17
Third down	5 of 18	8 of 16
Fourth down	1 of 6	2 of 2
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	1 for 5 yds	6 for 66 yds
Time of possession	31:10	28:50

Michigan State leaders

Passing Alessio Milivojevic 15 of 32, 103 yds
Rushing Jaziun Patterson 18 for 62 yds; Marvis Parrish 11 for 36 yds
Receiving Jayden Savoury 4 for 26 yds; Fredrick Moore 4 for 23 yds

Wisconsin leaders

Passing Colton Joseph 9 of 20, 145 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Colton Joseph 13 for 141 yds, 1 TD; Darrion Dupree 19 for 61 yds
Receiving Malachi Coleman 1 for 46 yds, 1 TD; Jacob Harris 2 for 35 yds, 2 TD

No rain through the game

62° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Camp Randall Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:54 left11:32 a.m.

Michigan State 0, Wisconsin 0 · Wisconsin 75% to win

no rain · 61°

Dupree run for a 2-yd loss

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Madison airport, 5.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Michigan State · 2-2

Rated 170th in our preseason ratings, 125th now, up 45 spots.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 13-31 vs Nebraska #28 of 668

lost by 18 as a 6-point underdog

L 10-27 @ Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 668

lost by 17 as a 28.5-point underdog

W 35-7 vs Eastern Michigan #122 of 668

won by 28 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 30-20 vs Toledo #50 of 668

won by 10 as a 10-point favorite

Last 4 games

Wisconsin · 3-1

Rated 86th in our preseason ratings, 66th now, up 20 spots.

3-1 in its last 4, capped by a 4-point win over Penn State as a 9.5-point underdog.

W 24-20 @ Penn StateTop 25 #32 of 668

won by 4 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 54-10 vs Eastern Michigan #142 of 668

won by 44 as a 23.5-point favorite

W 36-9 vs Western Illinois #238 of 668

won by 27 as a 43.5-point favorite

L 13-41 @ Notre DameTop 25 #1 of 668

lost by 28 as a 21-point underdog

Week by week

Wisconsin

Wk 1Lat Notre Dame13-41
Wk 2Wvs Western Illinois36-9
Wk 3Wvs Eastern Michigan54-10
Wk 4Wat Penn State24-20

Michigan State

Wk 1Wvs Toledo30-20
Wk 2Wvs Eastern Michigan35-7
Wk 3Lat Notre Dame10-27
Wk 4Lvs Nebraska13-31

Power rating by week

Wisconsin is rated 5.1 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Michigan State’s explosive plays against Wisconsin, 96 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Michigan State’s explosive plays against Wisconsin’s defense
Michigan State offense, 3rd percentile · Wisconsin defense, 99th
Michigan State’s EPA/play against Wisconsin’s defense
Michigan State offense, 17th percentile · Wisconsin defense, 90th
Michigan State’s passing EPA against Wisconsin’s defense
Michigan State offense, 18th percentile · Wisconsin defense, 94th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Michigan StateWisconsin

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Michigan State leads the series 32-23

55 meetings since 1913 · Michigan State won the last meeting

2022Michigan State 34-28
2019Wisconsin 38-0
2016Wisconsin 30-6
2012Michigan State 16-13
2011 · neutral siteWisconsin 42-39

Each line is Wisconsin’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Wisconsin fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (35th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Wisconsin favored by 8.5 · Total 43.5

How games like this usually go

Wisconsin by 8.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Michigan State.

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 66° at kickoff.

Michigan State at Wisconsin · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Camp Randall Stadium, Madison

66°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
100weather score, Ideal

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed.

11 am: 100, Ideal (this game)
2:30 pm: 100, Ideal
3:15 pm: 100, Ideal
6 pm: 100, Ideal
6:45 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Wisconsin is worth +5.1 points (±4.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 66th percentile.

65% at home, 42% on the road against FBS opponents (34-18 home, 16-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.5 at home vs. away over 93 games — inside the ±7.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 250 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Michigan State 34, Wisconsin 28Oct 15, 2022

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2016.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Wisconsin3rd1-0
Michigan State13th0-1

Full Big Ten standings

Wisconsin routs Michigan State 31-3