Middle Tennessee is near the bottom of the ratings.
- Win total 3.5 — line flat since open
- Middle Tennessee enters 2026 — the program's top-quintile returning production contrast…
How past storylines turned out
Middle Tennessee's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Middle Tennessee's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Middle Tennessee's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
How it developed newest first
Sep 29
Mason criticizes officiating, reprimanded.
Why it mattersDerek Mason enters his third season at Middle Tennessee with a 3-9 losing record to address, as the program seeks to redefine its identity beyond the legacy of Rick Stockstill.
Anthony Scelfo replaced Bodie Reeder as Middle Tennessee's offensive coordinator.
Why it mattersDerek Mason enters his third season with a 3-9 losing record, raising questions about whether the coordinator-driven reshaping can elevate Middle Tennessee beyond its current Conference USA floor.
Middle Tennessee: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Why it mattersDerek Mason's second season opens with a 3-9 losing record, forcing the program to redefine what historic-Tennessee-G5-football looks like under new leadership.
Middle Tennessee enters 2026 rated No. 127 in 2025 SP+ (-16.0).
top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
Why it mattersMiddle Tennessee enters 2026 — the program's top-quintile returning production contrasts sharply with its 3-9 record, and Derek Mason's second season will determine if historic-Tennessee-G5-football can be rekindled.
Middle Tennessee enters 2025 rated No. 127 in SP+ (-16.0).
top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
Why it mattersMiddle Tennessee enters 2025 at No. 127 in SP+ — Derek Mason's second season opens with top-quintile returning production, but the 3-9 record looms over Conference USA's bowl-era identity.
Watch next
The non-obvious thing to track
The schedule matters more than the number here. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model has it overmatched, and those games decide how the season is judged. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Our read of the beats above.
Rooms tap to switch
The 'the projection is underselling us' read: fans betting the season beats the preview number.
No coverage in this room yet.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter: efficiency ratings reward what a program has already done on the field.
This event was in 67 of 228 board posts (29%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The range consensus, not a gap
“Middle Tennessee High School Football Scores – Week 11”