CFB Zeitgeist Score
77
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 97th percentile.
Jay Crable
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
28 TACKLES · 6 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Ohio for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive end · Ohio
Returning around him
- 65% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- Transfer portal: +2 net (18 in / 16 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Ohio · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #126 · 2026 recruiting class #121
DE · OHIO · MID-AMERICAN
Jay Crable
- 2
- #12
- 6-3 | 227 lb
- Massillon, OH
Heisman Heat
#11401
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DEFENSE AWARD
Nagurski
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
2 seasons on the ladder
2024
Ohio · DE
—
★
2025
Ohio · DE
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Ohio
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3-star | 0.8250 | No. 1981 recruit | HighSchool | Ohio |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Ohio
Composite
0.8250
#1981 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Jay Crable
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Jay Crable
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 11g
28Tackles
8Tackles for loss
6Sacks
Per game
3Tackles
0.7Tackles for loss
0.5Sacks
Projected (13g)
33Tackles
9.5Tackles for loss
7.1Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 28): needs 26/game over remaining 2.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 28): needs 36/game over remaining 2.
✓ Hit 6-sack season · finished with 6.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 6): needs 2/game over remaining 2.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Jay Crable is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Ohio's defense, with 6.0 sacks, 8.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-disruption defender | Coverage splash against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
28 70th
SOLO
15 69th
TFL
8.0 96th
SACK
6.0 99th
QBH
4 85th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
4 84th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 31-34@ Rutgers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 17-10vs West Virginia | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 3 | L 9-37@ Ohio State | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 4 | W 52-35vs Gardner-Webb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 5 | W 35-20vs Bowling Green | 7 | 5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | — | 1 | Season-high 7 tackles |
| Wk 6 | L 14-20@ Ball State | 7 | 3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 8 | W 48-21vs Northern Illinois | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | W 28-21@ Eastern Michigan | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 13 | W 42-14vs Massachusetts | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | W 31-26@ Buffalo | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Bowl | W 17-10vs UNLV | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 28 | 15 | 8.0 | 6.0 | — | 4 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 28 | #1469/4942 | 70th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 8.0 | #198/4972 | 96th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 6.0 | #74/4972 | 99th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 4 | #340/2184 | 84th pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 4 | #291/1878 | 85th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 15 | #1434/4584 | 69th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Fumbles recovered | 1 | #103/736 | 86th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/773 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Road5g | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins8g | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Losses3g | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DE cohort
77All-Conference
Elite: sacks (97th). Strength: tackles for loss (92nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DE · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Jay CrableOhioRasheem BilesPittsburgh· 76% simMatt RoseStanford· 74% simSammy BrownClemson· 74% sim
Sacks
Tackles for loss
QB hurries
Passes defended
Solo tackles
Tackles
Forced fumbles
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Speed Rusher
Bends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor.
EDGE
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Shaun Peterson Jr.’s 2022 season.
Shaun Peterson Jr.
72%match
#2
Kobe Stewart
72%
#3
Ryan Smith
70%
#4
Donnie Smith
69%
#5
Michael Kennedy
All-MAC
69%
Matches Shaun on
Sack rate
TFL rate
Height
Differs from Shaun on
Class year (lower)
Weight (lower)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Jamond Mathis's sophomore season at Kent State (2025).
Jamond Mathis
89%match
All-MAC
#2
Russell Davis II
77%
#3
Mika Tafua
75%
#4
Felix Anudike
74%
#5
Anto Saka
70%
Matches Jamond on
Class year
Height
Sack rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Brian Smith
Pass share
36.6%
311 pass / 539 run
Plays / game
65.4
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
9.4%
278 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
2 coaches2024
Tim Albin
Ohio
2025era →
Brian Smith
Ohio
Coaching transition mid-career: Tim Albin → Brian Smith. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMassillon, OH
Height6'3"
Weight227 lb
Class2
PositionDE
Jersey12
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamOhio
ConferenceMid-American
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-MAC
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-MAC | all_conference | Ohio | MAC | DL |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.