Florida Atlantic

1-1

American Athletic · Zach Kittley, year 2 (5-9) · FAU Stadium · 29,419 · 22,273 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#101 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #111 (-12.2) · FPI #115
The marketFlorida Atlantic by 7vs Florida International · our model 58% Florida Atlantic · a number, not a pick

LastW 38–30 vs Navy · Sat Sep 12 · Caden Veltkamp 386 pass yds, 5 TD

Nextvs Florida International · Sat Sep 19 · 6 pm ET · FAU Stadium · Florida Atlantic by 7 · series 16-6, last win 2024 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
29.5
Pts allowed/game
48.0
Total yards/gmT-#76 / 138 · 45th pct
412.0
Rush yards/gm#134 / 138 · 3rd pct
81.0
Pass yards/gm#19 / 138 · 87th pct
331.0
Yards allowed/gm#130 / 138 · 6th pct
508.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#133 / 138 · 4th pct
263.5
SacksT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pct
3
InterceptionsT-#29 / 115 · 61st pct
2
3rd-down conv#22 / 138 · 84th pct
52.8%
All 85 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
824412.0/gm4.93/playT-#76 / 138 · 45th pct#45 / 70 · 36th pct#6 / 14 · 61st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
1017508.5/gm8.07/play#130 / 138 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
16281.0/gm0.97/play#134 / 138 · 3rd pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
527263.5/gm4.18/play#133 / 138 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
8140.5/gmT-#44 / 138 · 67th pct#23 / 70 · 68th pct#6 / 14 · 61st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7738.5/gmT-#105 / 138 · 24th pct#62 / 70 · 12th pct#10 / 14 · 32nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
21.0/gmT-#106 / 138 · 18th pctT-#56 / 70 · 15th pctT-#12 / 14 · 14th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
73.5/gmT-#132 / 138 · 4th pctT-#69 / 70 · 1st pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#2 / 13 · 92nd pct
Net pass yards
Team
662331.0/gm3.96/play#19 / 138 · 87th pct#11 / 70 · 85th pct#2 / 14 · 89th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
490245.0/gm3.89/play#105 / 138 · 24th pct#58 / 70 · 18th pct#10 / 14 · 32nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
8643.0/gm#14 / 138 · 90th pct#4 / 70 · 95th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4924.5/gmT-#25 / 138 · 80th pctT-#15 / 70 · 76th pctT-#3 / 14 · 79th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
6130.5/gmT-#5 / 138 · 96th pct#2 / 70 · 98th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2914.5/gmT-#30 / 138 · 77th pctT-#19 / 70 · 71st pct#2 / 14 · 89th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
63.0/gmT-#17 / 138 · 83rd pctT-#14 / 70 · 74th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
63.0/gmT-#129 / 138 · 5th pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
154.0154.0#43 / 115 · 63rd pct#29 / 60 · 52nd pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Opp
175.4175.4#87 / 91 · 5th pct#42 / 42 · 1st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
21.0/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#8 / 70 · 77th pctT-#3 / 14 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#77 / 138 · 33rd pctT-#40 / 70 · 29th pctT-#9 / 14 · 29th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
31.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pctT-#49 / 70 · 22nd pctT-#5 / 14 · 54th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#101 / 138 · 20th pctT-#56 / 70 · 14th pctT-#13 / 14 · 7th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
115.5/gmT-#63 / 138 · 49th pctT-#37 / 70 · 42nd pctT-#5 / 14 · 64th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
157.5/gmT-#123 / 138 · 9th pctT-#67 / 70 · 4th pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
5226.0/gmT-#28 / 138 · 79th pctT-#19 / 70 · 73rd pctT-#2 / 14 · 86th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4824.0/gmT-#123 / 138 · 11th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
199.5/gmT-#7 / 138 · 95th pctT-#3 / 70 · 95th pct#2 / 14 · 89th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
84.0/gmT-#40 / 138 · 67th pctT-#27 / 70 · 56th pct#2 / 14 · 89th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
3618.0/gmT-#10 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 70 · 98th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2010.0/gmT-#6 / 138 · 95th pctT-#2 / 70 · 97th pct#3 / 14 · 82nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
52.5/gmT-#4 / 138 · 95th pctT-#3 / 70 · 94th pctT-#1 / 14 · 86th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#121 / 138 · 9th pctT-#63 / 70 · 7th pctT-#12 / 14 · 14th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
105.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 99th pctT-#1 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#98 / 138 · 25th pctT-#54 / 70 · 20th pctT-#7 / 14 · 46th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
62:1431:07/gm#63 / 138 · 55th pct#32 / 70 · 55th pct#8 / 14 · 46th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
57:4628:53/gm#54 / 138 · 61st pct#32 / 70 · 55th pct#7 / 14 · 54th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
Game Manager · +0.55 EPA/play10261 / 8472.6662
#11 FBS
7.96
#14 FBS
2157.66483.47.55.6
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.32 EPA/play212331173.5111
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Deep Threat · +0.88 EPA/play8215252
#10 FBS
16.82
#24 FBS
76
Possession Receiver · +0.60 EPA/play2218207
#25 FBS
11.52
#24 FBS
36
Possession Receiver · +0.87 EPA/play92121018.4113
+1.34 EPA/play15448.8014

2026 stat leaders · Florida Atlantic

through 2 games

Easton Messer leads Florida Atlantic with 252 receiving yards through 2 games.

1. Easton Messer WR 252 receiving yards
2. Kelby Valsin WR 207 receiving yards
3. Caden Veltkamp QB 662 passing yards
4. Leon Hart Jr. LB 13 tackles
5. Jayden Sweeney S 12 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Florida Atlantic fields a capable pass-first, explosive, big-play offense behind a porous defense.

Offense
53rd pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
62% pass plays
Tempo
96th pct explosiveness
Defense
17th pct EPA allowed

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Florida Atlantic · 2025

Florida Atlantic reads strongest in explosive plays (top 5%) and passing epa (top 31%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Florida Atlantic sits at the 6th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.17
53rd
Success Rate +0.41
33rd
Explosive Plays +1.42
96th
Rushing EPA +0.03
21st

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.22
17th
Success Rate Allowed +0.44
26th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.29
36th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.25
48th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.33
69th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.20
7th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 12 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Florida Atlantic · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Florida Atlantic is worth +4.2 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 53rd percentile of 133 programs

55% at home, 28% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (23–19 home, 13–34 away). Interval ±4.5.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Florida Atlantic has beaten the number by −0.5 more at home than away over 75 games — inside the ±8.3 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

FAU Stadium seats 29,419 and has averaged 65% full (19,265, 24 games reported). Visitors face the 6th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 822 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads middle of fbs. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 26% of the 2026 roster (29 of 111 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 49 home games since 2018.

Home23–19Away13–34Edge+4.2 ±4.5Visitor trip822 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Florida Atlantic hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

43rd percentile success on standard downs, 87th on passing downs — a 44-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantFlorida AtlanticWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Florida Atlantic’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: Charlie Frye (2023–2024)
1st-down pass rate
2023: 46% → 2024: 38% · 8-pt range · #115 of 184 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2023: 49% → 2024: 41% · 9-pt range · #136 of 182 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2023: 53% → 2024: 45% · 8-pt range · #149 of 172 · less than most
Defense: Brett Dewhurst (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 61% → 2026: 56% · 5-pt range · #174 of 203 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 54% → 2026: 45% · 9-pt range · #150 of 200 · a typical amount
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Florida Atlantic’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (70.4% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 73-play sample) — mid-pack, 32 of 41 qualifying offenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=73 short-zone plays, raw rate 72.6%
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Florida Atlantic

CFB Zeitgeist

#101

-3.5

SP+

#111

-12.2

FPI

#115

-10.8

Elo

#129

1226

The national models put Florida Atlantic between 111th and 129th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 101st.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Florida Atlantic

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

81°F average kickoff temp; 24% of games had measurable precipitation; 11 mph average wind.

Based on 75 home games with weather data.

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