CFB Zeitgeist Score
19
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 41st percentile.
Xavier Brown
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
241 RUSH YDS · 1 RUSH TD · 51 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Virginia for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Virginia
Returning around him
- 28% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- Transfer portal: +8 net (30 in / 22 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Virginia · Last season: 11-3 (AP #20) · Talent rank #62 · 2026 recruiting class #58
RB · VIRGINIA · ACC
Xavier Brown
- 4
- #20
- 5-10 | 198 lb
- Lexington, KY
Heisman Heat
#162
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2022–2025+15%
Modest growth (15%) across the multi-season window.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Virginia
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#20 in market ▼ from #17 · 6 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8619 | No. 957 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8619
#957 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Xavier Brown
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Xavier Brown
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 7g
241Rush yards
51Carries
1Rush TDs
Per game
34.4Rush yards
7Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
447.6Rush yards
95Carries
2Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 241): needs 84.8/game over remaining 6.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 241): needs 126.5/game over remaining 6.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 241): needs 209.8/game over remaining 6.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 1.5/game over remaining 6.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 2.3/game over remaining 6.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 3.2/game over remaining 6.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Xavier Brown's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Virginia, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
51 58th
YDS
241 58th
YPC
4.7 53rd
TD
1 56th
Receiving
REC
5 43rd
YDS
36 41st
YPR
7.2 55th
TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 7 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 48-7vs Coastal Carolina | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 2 | L 31-35@ NC State | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 3 | W 55-16vs William & Mary | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 1 | 12 | |
| Wk 4 | W 48-20vs Stanford | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 0 | 20 | |
| Wk 5 | W 46-38vs Florida State | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 0 | 13 | Season-high 60 yds |
| Wk 6 | W 30-27@ Louisville | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | 14 | |
| Wk 8 | W 22-20vs Washington State | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 7 | |
| Total | 51 | 241 | 4.6 | 1 | 20 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Virginia3-7HC: Tony Elliott · Balanced
2024Virginia5-7HC: Tony Elliott · Balanced
2025Virginia11-3HC: Tony Elliott · Balanced
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 241 | #310/735 | 58th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #323/739 | 56th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.7 | #343/735 | 53rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 5 | #315/552 | 43rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 36 | #322/548 | 41st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.12 | #173/362 | 52nd pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 44 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 11.2% | #279/738 | 62nd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 51 | #308/739 | 58th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 20 | #400/733 | 46th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 15 | #296/540 | 45th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 7.2 | #250/548 | 55th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #60/552 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 18.2% | #286/738 | 61st pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 15.9% | #152/738 | 80th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 12.5% | #284/738 | 62nd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 10.5% | #338/738 | 54th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 8.3% | #275/738 | 63rd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 7.3% | #324/738 | 56th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 3.4% | #273/738 | 63rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 7 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 38.6 | 5.1 | 0.2 |
| Road2g | 24.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins6g | 35.7 | 4.8 | 0.2 |
| Losses1g | 27.0 | 3.4 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 37.8 | 4.6 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+1g | 14.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
19Below cohort
Concern: carries (11th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.12Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Xavier BrownVirginiaTae MeadowsTroy· 53% simJordan BrunsonMiami (OH)· 53% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 52% sim
Yards / carry
Rec yards
Receptions
Rush TDs
Rush yards
Long run
Carries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Rodrigues Clark’s 2020 season.
Rodrigues Clark
81%match
#2
Tre Siggers
72%
#3
Jamale Carothers
70%
#4
Anthony Watkins
All-AAC
73%
#5
Rodrigues Clark
73%
Matches Rodrigues on
Receiving share
Height
Class year
Differs from Rodrigues on
Recruiting rating (lower)
Yards / reception (higher)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Asim Rose’s path through Kentucky.
Asim Rose
98%match
#2
Calvin Turner
All-Mountain West
98%
#3
Makenzie McGill
90%
#4
Charles McClelland
88%
#5
Cooper Wallace
87%
Matches Asim on
Yards per carry
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Cade Ballard's junior season at Army (2022).
Cade Ballard
82%match
#2
Rodrigues Clark
80%
#3
Maquel Haywood
77%
#4
Anthony Watkins
All-AAC
79%
#5
Dewayne Coleman
76%
Matches Cade on
Rush TD rate
Weight
Yards / carry
Differs from Cade on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Tony Elliott
Pass share
48.0%
492 pass / 534 run
Plays / game
73.3
14 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
5.0%
337 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Tony Elliott
Virginia
2024
Tony Elliott
Virginia
2025
Tony Elliott
Virginia
Played his entire career under Tony Elliott.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownLexington, KY
Height5'10"
Weight198 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey20
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamVirginia
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.