Virginia at Wake Forest
Wake Forest (6‑1) hosts Virginia (4‑3). Too early for a market line, but the model likes Wake Forest (83%). Virginia’s offense is at the 10th percentile on explosive plays; Wake Forest’s defense is at the 96th.
How they got here
Last three games
Virginia · 4-3
Rated 56th in our preseason ratings, 58th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Wake Forest · 6-1
Rated 81st in our preseason ratings, 24th now, up 57 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Biggest mismatch: Virginia’s explosive plays against Wake Forest, 86 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Virginia’s explosive plays against Wake Forest’s defense
Virginia offense, 10th percentile · Wake Forest defense, 96th
Wake Forest’s passing EPA against Virginia’s defense
Wake Forest offense, 95th percentile · Virginia defense, 62nd
Wake Forest’s EPA/play against Virginia’s defense
Wake Forest offense, 94th percentile · Virginia defense, 69th
What’s at stake
Virginia
- Virginia is ranked #25, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Tony Elliott is ahead of Bronco Mendenhall’s year-5 pace (4-3 vs. 3-4) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
Wake Forest
- Wake Forest controls first place in ACC with 3 games left.
- Jake Dickert is ahead of Dave Clawson’s year-2 pace (6-1 vs. 3-4) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
The series
Virginia leads the series 34-18
52 meetings since 1911 · Wake Forest won the last meeting
- 2025Wake Forest 16-9
- 2024Virginia 31-30
- 2021Wake Forest 37-17
- 2020Wake Forest 40-23
- 2016Wake Forest 27-20
Each line is Wake Forest’s chance to win through that meeting. Wake Forest is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Virginia
The chip · vs the national mediaCavalier fans spent years hearing their program treated as an afterthought at the bottom of the ACC. They say 2025 — eleven wins, a bowl scalp of an SEC team — was the answer to everyone who assumed Virginia football would never amount to anything.
Wake Forest
The chip · vs the national mediaWake fans are used to being the team analysts forget to mention and the campus visitors can't find. They say being overlooked is a feature — the Deacons recruit the players everyone else passed on and develop them into the picture nobody saw coming.
What this game touches
The fear the magic walked out the door with Clawson. Dave Clawson built a decade of development and bowl trips, then stepped away after 2024 — and Winston-Salem braced for the slide that usually follows when a small program loses the coach who made it work. Whether the model was Clawson or the place was the live question entering 2025.
Best players
Virginia
- Jacobie Henderson (CB) · 38 tackles
- Maddox Marcellus (LB) · 34 tackles
- Fisher Camac (DE) · 31 tackles
Wake Forest
- Carlos Hernandez (WR) · 720 receiving yards
- Vincent Firenze (LB) · 51 tackles
- Giovanni Lopez (QB) · 1,947 passing yards
What to watch
Player to watch: Giovanni Lopez (QB) — Wake Forest’s leading passer (1,947 passing yards) takes on Virginia’s pass defense (62nd percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Wake Forest fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (84th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 90 to 94
Virginia at Wake Forest · Saturday, Oct. 31 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium: noon Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm 90, 7:30 pm 94.
- noon: 92, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Wake Forest is worth +1.1 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 8th percentile.
54% at home, 53% on the road against FBS opponents (25-21 home, 24-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.4 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 163 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Wake Forest
- Wk 3Lvs Miami20-33
- Wk 4Wat Louisville30-27
- Wk 5Wvs Stanford57-3
- Wk 6Wat NC State38-14
- Wk 7Wat California41-7
Virginia
- Wk 3Lvs West Virginia27-38
- Wk 4Wvs Delaware42-3
- Wk 5Lat Florida State7-38
- Wk 6Wvs Syracuse28-25
- Wk 7Lat SMU13-23
Power rating by week
Wake Forest is rated 5.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Wake Forest2nd4-1
- Virginia10th2-2
Last meeting in our History pages
- Wake Forest 16, Virginia 9Nov 8, 2025