SMU 23-13 Virginia (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Virginia · SMU

Virginia4-313

No. 24 SMU5-123Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, Texas · Crowd 28,713

No. 24 SMU beat Virginia 23-13.

We had SMU favored. It won.

Next: Virginia vs Duke, Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET · Virginia favored by 1.5

Next: SMU vs California, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET · SMU favored by 19.5

Top comment in the game thread

Free me from Beau Pribula

Q1 10:07 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave SMU a 69% chance, and the closing betting line (SMU was a 10-point favorite) put it at 79%.

Favored the whole way: SMU never fell below 66%.

Virginia never had better than a 33% chance.

FinalSMU 23-13 VirginiaSMU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 11:274th and 1Pribula 1-yd TD run, Virginia goes ahead 7-3SMU 81% → 70% (−11)
2Q2 10:44Jennings 59-yd pass to SmithSMU 67% → 77% (+10)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 11:274th and 1Pribula 1-yd TD run, Virginia goes ahead 7-3Virginia 19% → 30% (+11)
2Q2 10:44Jennings 59-yd pass to SmithVirginia 33% → 23% (−10)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 13:41Virginia fans mock SMU for going for it on fourth down in field goal rangeSMU is me playing CFB26 going for it in opponent's FG ranger/CFB game thread
Q1 10:07Virginia fans mock Beau Pribula after he fumbles near the goal lineQuoted at the top of the page.“Appear strong when you are weak and weak when you are strong” - Sun Tsu - Des Kitchingsr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:03Virginia fans rage over a defender's penalty that allowed SMU's winning field goalAre you kidding mer/CFB game threadWow that was dumbr/CFB game thread
Q3 0:34Review overturns SMU interception of Pribula pass as Virginia fans demand HolsteinI am ONCE AGAIN asking for Eli Holsteinr/CFB game threadNot a great decision to throw that and then underthrew it by like 5 yardsr/CFB game thread

SMU’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (SMU -10), at 82% for SMU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a SMU or Virginia flair (65 and 150); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show SMU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

SMU scored on 5 of its 9 drives; Virginia on 3 of its 8.

SMU’s drives are teal, Virginia’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Virginia’s side

Virginia’s best moment: Pribula 1-yd TD run, Virginia goes ahead 7-3 (Q2 11:27). It lifted Virginia’s win chance by 11 points.

How Virginia fans took it: “I cannot believe this was only a 10 point game” r/CFB game thread

“Free me from Beau Pribula”

A Virginia fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans were up and loud before the first quarter was out.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

SMU’s chance to make the playoff rose from 12% to 15%.

Make the playoff

Virginia · lost1% → 1%

SMU · won12% → ▲15%

Win the conference

Virginia · lost1% → 1%

SMU · won11% → ▲14%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

SMU plays vs California on Sat Oct 24 with a 15% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

SMU 23, Virginia 13

The game landed on the closing spread. The total, 36, stayed under 51.5.

Team totals	Virginia	SMU
Total yards	258	404
Passing	13 of 22, 137 yds	23 of 36, 246 yds
Rushing	32 for 121 yds	33 for 158 yds
First downs	13	23
Third down	4 of 13	4 of 13
Fourth down	2 of 3	4 of 5
Turnovers	1	0
Penalties	4 for 35 yds	6 for 45 yds
Time of possession	29:01	30:59

Virginia leaders

Passing Beau Pribula 13 of 22, 137 yds
Rushing Jekail Middlebrook 14 for 59 yds; Xay Davis 7 for 34 yds
Receiving Dashawn Martin 2 for 35 yds; Jacquon Gibson 2 for 30 yds

SMU leaders

Passing Kevin Jennings 23 of 36, 246 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Kendrick Raphael 22 for 124 yds; Kevin Jennings 4 for 26 yds
Receiving Yannick Smith 5 for 87 yds; Jalen Hale 4 for 60 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

58° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the north, gusts to 17

The usual here around this date is 74°, with about 7 in 10 games between 67° and 82°.

October game-day temperatures at Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:54 left11:11 a.m.

Virginia 0, SMU 0 · SMU 82% to win

no rain · wind 4 mph from the northeast, gusts to 14 · 59°

Raphael 2-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Dallas/love Field, 4.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Virginia · 4-2

Rated 56th in our preseason ratings, 61st now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 28-25 vs Syracuse #105 of 668

won by 3 as a 14-point favorite

L 7-38 @ Florida State #59 of 668

lost by 31 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 42-3 vs Delaware #61 of 668

won by 39 as a 19.5-point favorite

L 27-38 vs West Virginia #137 of 668

lost by 11 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 59-3 vs Norfolk State #225 of 668

won by 56 as a 47.5-point favorite

W 34-8 vs NC State #46 of 668

won by 26 as a 4-point favorite

Last three games

SMU · 4-1

Rated 15th in our preseason ratings, 33rd now, down 18 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 25-16 vs Boston College #124 of 668

won by 9 as a 21.5-point favorite

W 34-24 vs Missouri State #102 of 668

won by 10 as a 30.5-point favorite

L 31-41 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #43 of 668

lost by 10 as a 3-point underdog

W 56-10 vs UC Davis #102 of 668

won by 46 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 27-24 @ Florida State #84 of 668

won by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Week by week

SMU

Wk 1Wat Florida State27-24
Wk 2Wvs UC Davis56-10
Wk 3Lat Louisville31-41
Wk 4Wvs Missouri State34-24
Wk 5Wvs Boston College25-16

Virginia

Wk 2Wvs Norfolk State59-3
Wk 3Lvs West Virginia27-38
Wk 4Wvs Delaware42-3
Wk 5Lat Florida State7-38
Wk 6Wvs Syracuse28-25

Power rating by week

SMU is rated 3.8 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: SMU’s passing EPA against Virginia, 27 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

SMU’s explosive plays against Virginia’s defense
SMU offense, 68th percentile · Virginia defense, 94th
SMU’s passing EPA against Virginia’s defense
SMU offense, 89th percentile · Virginia defense, 62nd
SMU’s success rate against Virginia’s defense
SMU offense, 83rd percentile · Virginia defense, 67th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

VirginiaSMU

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

SMU leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2024 · SMU won the last meeting

2024SMU 33-7

Each line is SMU’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

SMU fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (66th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

SMU favored by 10 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

SMU by 10, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward SMU.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

SMU is worth +5.5 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 73rd percentile.

79% at home, 58% on the road against FBS opponents (34-9 home, 30-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.7 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,087 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

SMU3rd2-1
Virginia7th2-1

Full ACC standings

No. 24 SMU beats Virginia 23-13