Beau Pribula has attended more campuses than most fans have visited stadiums, but the tape at Missouri shows a quarterback who genuinely knows how to complete passes. He ranked 87th percentile in completion rate among FBS QBs in 2025 — third in the SEC — while coming back from a dislocated ankle to start the Tigers' final two games. Virginia is betting that precision translates across conferences.
6′2″ · 209 lb · York, PA · Central York
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
On production he ranks #70 of 146 QBs; on reputation he is a projected national-award finalist. The gap between those two numbers is the story.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 155 pass yds, 2 TD, 110 rush yds, vs NC State
The play that turned itSwung Missouri from 8% to 61% to win.Alabama at Missouri · 27-24
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Beau Pribula has attended more campuses than most fans have visited stadiums, but the tape at Missouri shows a quarterback who genuinely knows how to complete passes. He ranked 87th percentile in completion rate among FBS QBs in 2025 — third in the SEC — while coming back from a dislocated ankle to start the Tigers' final two games. Virginia is betting that precision translates across conferences.
Aura™ · Him Watch
+23aura tax
40th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=84
— more hype than the tape.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
maybe not this year, but next year when we get an o-line, start that beau pribula heisman hype baby! cuz Im FUCKING CONVINCED LMAO
Also worth knowing:
“I mean, they could have ranked Beau Pribula one spot higher....”
The Missouri chapter was more complicated than the box score admits. Pribula won the starting job after transferring from Penn State, led the Tigers to a 6-1 mark in games he started and finished, and posted a 174.25 passer rating against Kansas (30-for-39, 334 yards, three touchdowns). The nine interceptions and a late-season ankle injury muted the headline numbers, but the underlying play-by-play was kinder: 87th-percentile completion rate, 84th-percentile pass success rate on 219 tracked dropbacks.
The limiting factor is obvious in the data. Pribula's average depth of target sat in the 26th percentile and his explosive-pass rate in the 22nd, meaning he lives underneath the coverage. That is a workable offensive identity — not a flaw — if Virginia offensive coordinator Des Kitchings builds a system around quick-hitting routes and designed runs. Pribula also brings six rushing touchdowns and 95 carries from 2025, enough mobility to keep defenses honest in a spread-option framework.
The 2026 stake is simple: Virginia needs a starter who can manage an offense without self-destructing, and Pribula is already favored to win that job. A clean pocket and a scheme that plays to his strengths could make him one of the ACC's more efficient distributors. Push him to win vertically, and the 34th-percentile explosive rate becomes the ceiling in a hurry.
His career
6 programs, one constant: he played.
Pribula is a check-down artist masquerading as a dual-threat, and the PBP data makes the case without apology. His 87th-percentile completion rate and 84th-percentile pass success rate are the top-line moat numbers — he processes quickly, gets the ball out, and avoids taking chances he cannot win. The tradeoff shows up in the 26th-percentile average depth of target and 34th-percentile explosive-pass rate: he is not pushing the ball down the field. The 21st-percentile sack rate (he takes sacks more than most) is the one wrinkle that undercuts the quick-release narrative and suggests he can be flushed from a clean pocket when defenses force him off his first read. The rushing volume (95 carries, 6 touchdowns) is real but comes with a modest 3.1 yards per carry — he is a threat to run, not a runner by design.
Written by our staff.
Career arc
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
1 coachPlayed his entire career under Tony Elliott.
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Virginia
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Virginia | 42 | 58 | 72.4% | 514 | 8.9 | 7 | 1 | 183.2 | 55 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Missouri | 182 | 270 | 67.4% | 1,946 | 7.2 | 11 | 9 | 134.7 | 47 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Penn State | 26 | 35 | 74.3% | 275 | 7.9 | 5 | 1 | 181.7 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Penn State | 11 | 21 | 52.4% | 149 | 7.1 | 4 | 0 | 174.8 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 261 | 384 | 68.0% | 2,884 | 7.5 | 27 | 11 | 148.5 | 48 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Virginia | 25 | 101 | 4.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2025 | Missouri | 95 | 297 | 3.1 | 6 | -- |
| 2024 | Penn State | 38 | 242 | 6.4 | 4 | -- |
| 2023 | Penn State | 56 | 329 | 5.9 | 6 | -- |
| Career | 214 | 969 | 4.5 | 16 | -- |
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-8vs NC State | 9/11 | 155 | 2 | 0 | 14.1 | 97.4 | |
| Wk 2 | W 59-3vs Norfolk State | 12/14 | 162 | 3 | 1 | 11.6 | 51.1 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | L 27-38vs West Virginia | 21/33 | 197 | 2 | 0 | 6.0 | 64.9 | Season-high 197 yds |
| Total | 42/58 | 514 | 7 | 1 | 10.6 | 71.1 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 34–8
vs NC State
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +197 passing yards, +2 passing TD.
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
Elite: fumbles lost (90th percentile). Strength: completion % (87th percentile). Concern: pass yards (2nd percentile).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
8.9435 of 126 QBsSack rate
7.9%110 of 126 QBsSacked on 7.9% of dropbacks (110 of 126) — and still 35 of 126 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 72.4% completion on 58 attempts · 50% completion on 10 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 56 dropbacks55Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
50.9%87th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected points · -2.7% schedule adj.Yards per attempt weight 56%
8.1687th pct of FBS QBssacks excluded · -0.7 schedule adj.Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
9.1%5th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot see · +0.2% schedule adj.Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (7 of 63 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 171 | 2.3 | 10.6 | 0.3 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 171 | 2.3 | 10.6 | 0.3 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Tony Elliott
Pass share
34.3%
68 pass / 130 run
Plays / game
66.0
3 games
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
Play style
Pribula is a check-down artist masquerading as a dual-threat, and the PBP data makes the case without apology. His 87th-percentile completion rate and 84th-percentile pass success rate are the top-line moat numbers — he processes quickly, gets the ball out, and avoids taking chances he cannot win. The tradeoff shows up in the 26th-percentile average depth of target and 34th-percentile explosive-pass rate: he is not pushing the ball down the field. The 21st-percentile sack rate (he takes sacks more than most) is the one wrinkle that undercuts the quick-release narrative and suggests he can be flushed from a clean pocket when defenses force him off his first read. The rushing volume (95 carries, 6 touchdowns) is real but comes with a modest 3.1 yards per carry — he is a threat to run, not a runner by design.
Our classifier reads him the same way: keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game.
Returning starter at quarterback for a 11-3 Virginia team that went +9 in the portal.
Player DNA
Consistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Luke Altmyer’s 2023 season.
Matches Luke on
Differs from Luke on
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Shedeur Sanders’s path through Colorado.
Matches Shedeur on
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Luke Altmyer's junior season at Illinois (2023).
Matches Luke on
Differs from Luke on
Player DNA
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #22 this season.