The Index

Four signals — fan confidence (updated weekly), market expectations (season win totals, set before the season), portal balance and recruiting class (both set in the offseason) — composited into one score per program. Not a power ranking, and it does not count this season’s results. A momentum board. How to read our numbers.

Missouri State

Leads the board — strongest in portal balance

+81 pts

Stanford

Fans rank Stanford 81 percentile points higher than Vegas does this offseason

5/14

Sun Belt

Programs in the top third of The Index — most of any conference

Fan belief 30% Market expectation 30% Portal balance 25% Recruiting class 15% ■ Top third ■ Bottom third

#	Program	Score	Fan belief	Market	Portal	Recruiting
1	Missouri State Conference USA	79	99▲	—	100	4
2	Memphis American Athletic	78	92	—	75	57
3	UL Monroe Sun Belt	78	94	—	95	17
4	Georgia Southern Sun Belt	76	90▲	—	80	42
5	Oklahoma State Big 12	75	78▲	70	85	62
6	Virginia Tech ACC	74	76▲	59	92	72
7	Toledo Mid-American	73	100▲	—	55	47
8	Houston Big 12	72	58	83	79	63
9	Marshall Sun Belt	72	86▲	—	91	13
10	Indiana Big Ten	71	31	92	96	66
11	UTEP Mountain West	71	99▲	—	49	50
12	Wyoming Mountain West	71	91▲	—	68	36
13	Georgia State Sun Belt	70	93▲	—	53	52
14	Liberty Conference USA	70	79	—	77	38
15	New Mexico Mountain West	70	75	84	91	0
16	Utah State Pac-12	70	72▲	—	88	37
17	Wake Forest ACC	70	64	89	64	55
18	Ole Miss SEC	69	50	72	77	89
19	Northwestern Big Ten	68	61▲	55	99	53
20	James Madison Sun Belt	67	68▲	94	61	22
21	LSU SEC	67	33	67	93	93
22	Utah Big 12	66	70▲	98	20	72
23	Kentucky SEC	65	56	48	86	80
24	SMU ACC	65	30	75	88	78
25	Arizona Big 12	64	87▲	64	36	64
26	Buffalo Mid-American	64	62	—	83	34
27	Purdue Big Ten	64	85▲	—	59	28
28	Texas SEC	64	32	88	50	100
29	Akron Mid-American	63	87	—	69	7
30	Jacksonville State Conference USA	63	57▲	—	96	20
31	UConn FBS Independents	63	82▲	—	66	18
32	Western Kentucky Conference USA	63	79	—	64	31
33	Ball State Mid-American	62	56	—	97	14
34	Coastal Carolina Sun Belt	62	88	—	47	34
35	Texas Tech Big 12	62	2▼	95	94	66
36	Virginia ACC	62	67▲	39	87	58
37	Fresno State Pac-12	61	54▲	—	90	26
38	Syracuse ACC	61	73	—	40	70
39	East Carolina American Athletic	60	98	—	22	45
40	Southern Miss Sun Belt	60	74	—	66	24
41	UCLA Big Ten	59	21	97	55	67
42	Arizona State Big 12	58	69▲	19	85	69
43	Baylor Big 12	58	47	41	82	74
44	Louisville ACC	58	53▲	50	78	51
45	Rice American Athletic	58	65	—	67	28
46	Tennessee SEC	58	64▲	—	29	93
47	Tulane American Athletic	58	84▲	—	32	47
48	Temple American Athletic	57	67▲	—	72	11
49	Alabama SEC	56	40	80	19	99
50	Hawai'i Mountain West	56	42▲	—	99	10
51	Iowa Big Ten	56	7	66	93	73
52	Kennesaw State Conference USA	56	63	—	80	1
53	North Dakota State Mountain West	56	95▲	86	4	4
54	Mississippi State SEC	55	36	52	65	80
55	San José State Mountain West	55	96	—	31	15
56	UNLV Mountain West	55	46	58	76	31
57	Missouri SEC	54	23	53	74	86
58	Oregon Big Ten	54	49	73	12	97
59	South Carolina SEC	54	44	23	82	88
60	Troy Sun Belt	54	96▲	—	12	41
61	Tulsa American Athletic	54	81	—	42	21
62	Florida Atlantic American Athletic	53	76	—	34	39
63	Miami ACC	53	13	100	21	91
64	Nebraska Big Ten	53	5▼	69	73	85
65	Texas State Pac-12	53	61▲	—	60	27
66	Sam Houston Conference USA	52	73	—	52	12
67	Wisconsin Big Ten	52	10	62	74	81
68	Kent State Mid-American	51	97▲	—	7	33
69	Louisiana Sun Belt	51	93	—	5	42
70	New Mexico State Conference USA	51	77	—	45	9
71	Texas A&M SEC	51	47	27	57	94
72	App State Sun Belt	50	84	—	31	16
73	Bowling Green Mid-American	50	90	—	13	32
74	Western Michigan Mid-American	50	53	—	61	25
75	Middle Tennessee Conference USA	49	51	—	58	29
76	Sacramento State Mid-American	48	81▲	16	70	8
77	NC State ACC	47	27▼	34	69	76
78	Colorado Big 12	46	25	—	54	74
79	Miami (OH) Mid-American	46	39	—	58	40
80	Minnesota Big Ten	46	24	22	89	65
81	USC Big Ten	45	28	77	1	91
82	West Virginia Big 12	45	34	28	63	69
83	BYU Big 12	44	16	91	9	61
84	Florida SEC	44	30	45	28	96
85	Rutgers Big Ten	44	39	0	81	77
86	UAB American Athletic	44	60▲	—	46	9
87	Cincinnati Big 12	43	44	30	50	56
88	Nevada Mountain West	43	52	—	37	36
89	Northern Illinois Mountain West	43	80	—	0	39
90	UTSA American Athletic	43	27	78	34	23
91	Clemson ACC	42	35	42	27	82
92	Delaware Conference USA	42	16	—	98	3
93	North Texas American Athletic	42	66	—	28	19
94	Vanderbilt SEC	42	83▲	17	20	45
95	Army American Athletic	41	59	—	41	6
96	Georgia Tech ACC	41	38▲	11	53	85
97	South Florida American Athletic	41	29	—	48	53
98	Boise State Pac-12	40	20	81	4	55
99	Colorado State Pac-12	40	43	—	47	23
100	Stanford ACC	40	89▲	8	9	60
101	Washington Big Ten	40	41	—	11	84
102	Pittsburgh ACC	39	26	61	15	64
103	Kansas State Big 12	38	4	47	45	75
104	Penn State Big Ten	38	13	—	36	90
105	UCF Big 12	38	37	38	35	43
106	Kansas Big 12	37	24	14	72	48
107	Louisiana Tech Sun Belt	37	71	—	7	20
108	Ohio Mid-American	37	48	—	39	12
109	Ohio State Big Ten	37	19	—	23	98
110	Auburn SEC	36	9	—	33	95
111	Duke ACC	36	1▼	44	43	79
112	Illinois Big Ten	36	41	12	39	68
113	Boston College ACC	35	59	3	30	58
114	California ACC	35	22	9	71	50
115	Florida International Conference USA	35	55	—	10	35
116	North Carolina ACC	35	15	—	38	71
117	Washington State Pac-12	35	10	—	56	49
118	Massachusetts Mid-American	34	8▼	—	84	1
119	Michigan Big Ten	34	12	33	26	96
120	South Alabama Sun Belt	34	70	—	2	15
121	Arkansas State Sun Belt	33	18	—	44	46
122	Iowa State Big 12	33	45	20	18	61
123	Air Force Mountain West	32	50	—	26	7
124	Florida State ACC	32	19▲	31	15	87
125	Georgia SEC	32	7	—	23	99
126	San Diego State Pac-12	32	1▼	—	62	44
127	TCU Big 12	31	21	25	18	83
128	Maryland Big Ten	30	33	5	25	82
129	Oklahoma SEC	30	6	36	17	88
130	Oregon State Pac-12	30	4	56	16	54
131	Arkansas SEC	29	14	2	51	77
132	Notre Dame FBS Independents	28	17	—	3	92
133	Michigan State Big Ten	20	11	6	24	59
134	Navy American Athletic	19	36	—	8	5
135	Charlotte American Athletic	15	0▼	—	42	2
136	Eastern Michigan Mid-American	15	—	—	6	30
137	Old Dominion Sun Belt	12	3	—	14	26
138	Central Michigan Mid-American	7	—	—	1	18

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Fan belief is our model’s estimate from r/cfb discourse (CardiffNLP sentiment, percentile-ranked within FBS). Market = current median win total across major books. Portal balance = net talent-point delta from transfer activity. Recruiting = 2025 247Sports composite class rating. All dimensions normalized to 0–100 percentile rank within FBS. Composite = weight-renormalized mean of available signals. Conference labels reflect 2024–25 realignment. ▲▼ on fan belief = movement vs. prior week.