cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Marlon Gunn /East Carolina

Marlon Gunn

RB · East Carolina · Sr · #21

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

582 RUSH YDS · 6 RUSH TD · 112 CARRIES

2026 RETURNINGReturning to East Carolina for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to East Carolina for 2026

Updated May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Running back · East Carolina

Returning around him

  • 51% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
  • 1 East Carolina player drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: -3 net (23 in / 26 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

East Carolina · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #78 · 2026 recruiting class #77

RB · EAST CAROLINA · AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Marlon Gunn

  • 4
  • #21
  • 6-0 | 207 lb
  • Baton Rouge, LA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

56

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 62nd percentile.

Heisman Heat

#3083

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R06 · Starter

Starter. A locked-in starting role.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2022–2025
3012022
65.02023
5822025

+93%

Up 93% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
East Carolina
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB
Class4
Jersey21
Measurements6-0 | 207 lb
HometownBaton Rouge, LA
Primary teamEast Carolina

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#3083Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#3096Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Marlon Gunn

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

Awaiting per-cohort signal

Sample 0 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmNational: 2 mentions · belief +0 · "The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found [here]( https://www.r"National
  • National · n=2

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Marlon Gunn

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

final
Through 13g
582Rush yards
112Carries
6Rush TDs
Per game
44.8Rush yards
9Carries
0Rush TDs
Final
582Rush yards
112Carries
6Rush TDs

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Marlon Gunn's story is about how role and output meet each other. For East Carolina, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #3083 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 11.6% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Development arc The card should explain why this profile stands out

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 611 582 rush | 29 rec | #124/735 (83rd pct)
Rush TD 6 112 carries | #83/739 (89th pct)
Yards/carry 5.2 Per-rush efficiency | #240/735 (67th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Rushing

CAR
112 82nd
YDS
582 83rd
YPC
5.2 67th
TD
6 89th

Receiving

REC
6 47th
YDS
29 37th
YPR
4.8 22nd
TD
0 70th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCARYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1L 17-24@ NC State650.814
Wk 2W 56-3vs Campbell8334.1113
Wk 3W 38-0@ Coastal Carolina100.000
Wk 4L 13-34vs BYU6355.8013
Wk 5W 28-6vs Army10535.3015
Wk 7L 19-26@ Tulane10525.2016
Wk 8W 41-27vs Tulsa14604.3113
Wk 10W 45-14@ Temple10646.4125
Wk 11W 48-22vs Charlotte5183.607
Wk 12W 31-27vs Memphis5204.0011
Wk 13L 24-58@ UTSA56212.4150
Wk 14W 42-3@ Florida Atlantic141309.3136Season-high 130 yds
BowlW 23-17vs Pittsburgh18502.8014
Total1125824.9650
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022East Carolina8-5HC: Mike Houston · Balanced
2023East Carolina2-10HC: Mike Houston · Balanced
2025East Carolina9-4HC: Blake Harrell · Run-leaning, fast tempo
SeasonTeam
2025East Carolina1125825.26--
2023East Carolina24652.70--
2022East Carolina653014.60--
Career3 loaded seasons2019484.76--
SeasonTeam
2025East Carolina6294.80--
2023East Carolina5346.80--
2022East Carolina14775.50--
Career3 loaded seasons251405.60--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 6 29 rec yds | #291/552 (47th pct)
Usage 11.6% 20.0% rush share | #267/738 (64th pct)
Rushing WEPA +0.17 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #102/362 (72nd pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Rushing Rushing yards 582 #124/735 83rd pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rush TD 6 #83/739 89th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing Yards / carry 5.2 #240/735 67th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receptions 6 #291/552 47th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving yards 29 #347/548 37th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Value Rushing WEPA +0.17 #102/362 72nd pct Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 103 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage Role share 11.6% #267/738 64th pct Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing Carries 112 #132/739 82nd pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rushing LONG 50 #162/733 78th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving LONG 8 #438/540 19th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Yards / catch 4.8 #428/548 22nd pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #169/552 70th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Usage Rush share 20.0% #263/738 64th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage 3rd-down usage 13.7% #104/738 86th pct Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Standard-down usage 12.6% #277/738 63rd pct Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage 1st-down usage 11.1% #324/738 56th pct Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage 2nd-down usage 10.6% #318/738 57th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Passing-down usage 8.8% #252/738 66th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage Pass share 1.8% #419/738 43rd pct Air-game usagevs FBS RB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Home7g38.44.30.3
Road6g52.25.70.7

Win vs Loss

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Wins9g47.64.40.4
Losses4g38.56.00.5

First half vs Second half

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Weeks 1-77g32.63.40.3
Weeks 8+6g59.06.70.7

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

56Solid starter
7 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: rec yards (16th).

Rush TDs#83 / 349 · 72nd pct
6rush
Rush yards#124 / 349 · 65th pct
582rush
Yards / carry#127 / 349 · 62nd pct
5.2rush
Carries#132 / 349 · 62nd pct
112rush
Long run#144 / 349 · 58th pct
50rush
Receptions#253 / 338 · 23rd pct
6rece
Rec yards#282 / 338 · 17th pct
29rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · RB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

wepa_rushing0.17Mid (p50–p75) (n=178)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Marlon GunnEast CarolinaSire GainesBoise State· 83% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 82% simKaelon BlackIndiana· 82% sim
Rush TDs
72
Gunn
84
Gaines
62
Wright
89
Black
Rush yards
65
Gunn
82
Gaines
84
Wright
91
Black
Yards / carry
62
Gunn
53
Gaines
33
Wright
74
Black
Carries
62
Gunn
84
Gaines
92
Wright
91
Black
Long run
58
Gunn
51
Gaines
49
Wright
41
Black
Receptions
23
Gunn
45
Gaines
32
Wright
12
Black
Rec yards
17
Gunn
41
Gaines
10
Wright
20
Black

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Balanced Back

Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.

RB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Spencer Brown’s 2020 season.

Spencer Brown

80%match

UAB · 2020

#2

Billy Lucas

Liberty · 2023

79%
#3

Bryson Kuzdzal

Michigan · 2025

78%
#4

Devin Neal

Kansas · 2021

77%
#5

Daetrich Harrington

App State · 2022

75%

Matches Spencer on

Rush TD rate
Height
Class year

Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Larry Rountree III’s path through Missouri.

Larry Rountree III

96%match

Missouri · 2020

All-SECNFL Rd 6
#2

Tate Carney

Wake Forest · 2024

95%
#3

Kierre Crossley

Arkansas-Pine Bluff · 2021

94%
#4

Dominic Richardson

Tulsa · 2025

94%
#5

Chuba Hubbard

Oklahoma State · 2020

All-Big 12NFL Rd 4
94%

Matches Larry on

Yards per carry

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Le'Veon Moss's senior season at Texas A&M (2025).

Le'Veon Moss

77%match

Texas A&M · 2025

#2

Reggie Love III

Illinois · 2023

76%
#3

Zachary Palmer-Smith

UL Monroe · 2025

76%
#4

Sam Franklin

South Florida · 2025

75%
#5

Willie Shaw III

Toledo · 2024

73%

Matches Le'Veon on

Weight
Receiving share
Height

Differs from Le'Veon on

Rush TD rate (lower)
EPA / carry (adj) (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Blake Harrell

Pass share

44.5%

440 pass / 548 run

Plays / game

76.0

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

4.7%

343 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning, fast tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

2 coaches
2022
Mike Houston
East Carolina
2023
Mike Houston
East Carolina
2025
Blake Harrell
East Carolina
era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Mike Houston → Blake Harrell. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownBaton Rouge, LA
Height6'0"
Weight207 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey21

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 East Carolina RB4 #3083 #3096 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | American Athletic
2023 East Carolina RB4 #3248 #3634 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | American Athletic
2022 East Carolina RB4 #1597 #1754 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | American Athletic

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 East Carolina American Athletic RB 4 No. 21 | 6-0 | 207 lb | Baton Rouge, LA
2024 East Carolina American Athletic RB 4 No. 21 | 6-0 | 207 lb | Baton Rouge, LA
2023 East Carolina American Athletic RB 4 No. 21 | 6-0 | 207 lb | Baton Rouge, LA
2022 East Carolina American Athletic RB 4 No. 21 | 6-0 | 207 lb | Baton Rouge, LA