California at Virginia
Virginia (4‑5) hosts California (3‑6). Too early for a market line, but the model likes Virginia (79%). California’s offense is at the 32nd percentile on explosive plays; Virginia’s defense is at the 88th.
How they got here
Last three games
California · 3-6
Rated 63rd in our preseason ratings, 136th now, down 73 spots.
Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.
Last three games
Virginia · 4-5
Rated 56th in our preseason ratings, 75th now, down 19 spots.
Three straight losses.
Biggest mismatch: California’s explosive plays against Virginia, 56 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
California’s explosive plays against Virginia’s defense
California offense, 32nd percentile · Virginia defense, 88th
California’s EPA/play against Virginia’s defense
California offense, 8th percentile · Virginia defense, 51st
Virginia’s rushing EPA against California’s defense
Virginia offense, 36th percentile · California defense, 4th
What’s at stake
California
- California is still shaking off a 21-point loss.
Virginia
- Virginia is ranked #25, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Virginia is still shaking off a 44-point loss.
The series
Virginia leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2025 · Virginia won the last meeting
- 2025Virginia 31-21
Each line is Virginia’s chance to win through that meeting.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
California
The chip · vs the national mediaFans here believe old Blues will tell you the rankings forget Cal exists between rivalry weeks — that a school this good at everything else gets written off in football by people who can't name a single thing about the program except a five-lateral play from 1982.
What this game touches
Wilcox out after the slow fade. The 2025 Bears started 4-1 and finished 7-6 with a Hawaii Bowl loss, and the late slide cost Justin Wilcox his job after nine years and a 48-55 record — the longest-tenured coach in the West cut loose, with Oregon's Tosh Lupoi, a Cal alum, hired to start over.
Virginia
The chip · vs the national mediaCavalier fans spent years hearing their program treated as an afterthought at the bottom of the ACC. They say 2025 — eleven wins, a bowl scalp of an SEC team — was the answer to everyone who assumed Virginia football would never amount to anything.
Best players
California
- Isaiah Crosby (DB) · 50 tackles
- AJ Tuitele (LB) · 49 tackles
- Chase Hendricks (WR) · 565 receiving yards
Virginia
- Maddox Marcellus (LB) · 45 tackles
- Jacobie Henderson (CB) · 42 tackles
- Beau Pribula (QB) · 1,587 passing yards — Heisman odds: 37th (+13000)
The betting line, and the fans
Virginia fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (67th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Scott Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 91 to 93
California at Virginia · Saturday, Nov. 14 · Scott Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Scott Stadium: noon Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm 91, 7:30 pm 93.
- noon: 92, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 91, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Virginia is worth +5.4 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 73rd percentile.
60% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (29-19 home, 14-28 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 2,360 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Virginia
- Wk 5Lat Florida State7-38
- Wk 6Wvs Syracuse28-25
- Wk 7Lat SMU13-23
- Wk 8Lvs Duke16-19
- Wk 9Lat Wake Forest7-51
California
- Wk 5Lat UNLV31-39
- Wk 6Wvs Virginia Tech25-20
- Wk 7Lvs Wake Forest7-41
- Wk 8Lat SMU20-59
- Wk 9Lat NC State10-31
Power rating by week
Virginia is rated 5.0 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Virginia15th2-4
- California14th2-4