Tony Elliott

Head coach · Virginia
5th season · since 2022

At Virginia26-31since 2022 · 4-5 this seasonHot seatWarm14% · 27th of 132 jobsLast gameL 7-51at Wake Forest · Oct 31NextByethen vs California · Sat Nov 14
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-5, lost 3 straight, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianVirginiaVirginia TechVirginia TechPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelVirginia when he took over: 31.2 (National Program III), its final 2021 readingtook overVirginia, 2022: 3-7, National Program IIIVirginia, 2022: 3-7, National Program III20223-7Virginia, 2023: 3-9, National Program III20233-9Virginia, 2024: 5-7, National Program III20245-7Virginia, 2025: 11-3, National Program III202511-3Virginia, 2026: 4-5, National Program IIIVirginia, 2026: 4-5, National Program III20264-5-2.1best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 1-0

2025Gator BowlW 13-7

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 7-51 at Wake Forest Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-5 lost 3 straight
  • Hot seat14% 27th of 132
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextvs. California Sat Nov 14 (no game this week)
  • Stature65th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.1% → <0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 12%. Lose and he’s at 19%.

No game this week · vs. California, Sat Nov 14, time to be announced ACC Network · California is 3-6 · First meeting between Elliott and Tosh Lupoi as head coaches · Virginia’s chance to win: 79% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Virginia wins: 12%, 32nd of 132Now: 14%If Virginia loses: 19%, 23rd of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Virginia wins: 12%, 32nd of 132
  • Now: 14%
  • If Virginia loses: 19%, 23rd of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

14% chance he’s out after the season · 27th of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow7% had they won7% had they wonLoss 19%Win 12%11%3%4%7%4%9%9%10%12%14%Pre1W vs. NC StateW2W vs. Norfolk StateW3L vs. West VirginiaL4W vs. DelawareW5L at Florida StateL6W vs. SyracuseW7L at SMUL8L vs. DukeL9L at Wake ForestL10Chance to win vs. California79%11Chance to win vs. North Carolina44%12Chance to win at Virginia Tech36%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow7% had they won7% had they wonLoss 19%Win 12%11%14%Pre36912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-823%
  2. 5-715%
  3. 6-610%
  4. 7-56%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202220232024202520262022, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 116th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 108th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 108th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (10 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (10 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (10 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 12%, 43rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 14%, 41st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 15%, 37th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 13%, 43rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 13%, 42nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 9%, 52nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 11%, 44th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 13%, 39th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 13%, 39th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 10%, 44th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 11%, 35th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 11%, 35th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 11%, 34th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 14%, 29th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 11%, 45th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 11%, 42nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 9%, 47th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 11%, 41st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 14%, 37th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 15%, 33rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 15%, 31st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 10%, 42nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 11%, 36th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 11%, 35th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 12%, 35th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 12%, 35th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 12%, 35th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 13%, 28th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 11%, 44th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 8%, 55th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 6%, 58th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 6%, 56th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 69th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 86th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 86th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 86th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 7%, 52nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 4%, 66th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 9%, 47th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 9%, 45th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 9.8%, 45th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 11%, 39th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (9 games in): 14%, 32nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (9 games in): 14%, 27th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 5 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    $11.2M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 2.5× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-5, outscoring opponents by 25

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-5 after 9 games
10% pushed out over results · of 415 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 9 games
13% pushed out over results · of 695 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$11,175,000 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 2.5× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 9.5%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4

Fans are frustrated with Virginia

Econ 3010 Why is intermediate micro the hardest shit ever💔💔💔am I genuinely just not capable of applying these concepts like I thought I was a decent problem solver

AMST2660 spiritual, but not religious or AMST3630 Vietnam War in literature film? Any have any feedback?

I drove down to WS for to watch my first game at that stadium, unfortunately I did not get to see a game. All Virginia did was get off the bus and suit up........nothing else

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 88th of 138 per play. Defense: 50th.

Offense, per play88thOffense, big plays111thDefense, per play50thDefense, opponents' starting field position44thWorstBest
Offense, per play88th of 138Offense, big plays111th of 138Defense, per play50th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position44th of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Virginia. The other two rows are where Virginia stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Sat Nov 14vs. California (3-6)ACC Network79%
  2. Sat Nov 21vs. North Carolina (4-4)44%
  3. Sat Nov 28at Virginia Tech (6-2)36%

Percent: Virginia’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Virginia stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

58th64th70thPreseason63rdNC State W 34-8NC State W 34-8W 34-8NC State63rdNorfolk State W 59-3Norfolk State W 59-3W 59-3Norfolk State62ndWest Virginia L 27-38West Virginia L 27-38L 27-38West Virginia64thDelaware W 42-3Delaware W 42-3W 42-3Delaware63rdFlorida State L 7-38Florida State L 7-38L 7-38Florida State64thSyracuse W 28-25Syracuse W 28-25W 28-25Syracuse64thSMU L 13-23SMU L 13-23L 13-23SMU65thDuke L 16-19Duke L 16-19L 16-19Duke65thWake Forest L 7-51Wake Forest L 7-51L 7-51Wake Forest65thBye65th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 7-51 at Wake Forest11 headlines · 42nd of 138Everything Tony Elliott said following Virginia's loss to Wake Forest 247Sports
  2. Oct 19–25L 16-19 vs. Duke7 headlines · 53rd of 138Virginia Postgame Quotes That Matter From Tony Elliott After Friday Loss to Duke Sports Illustrated
  3. Oct 12–18L 13-23 at SMU4 headlines · 55th of 138FOOTBALL: SMU - Tony Elliott Post Game Press Conference Virginia Cavaliers
  4. Oct 5–11W 28-25 vs. Syracuse6 headlines · 53rd of 138Everything Tony Elliott said after Virginia's comeback win over Syracuse 247Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 7-38 at Florida State9 headlines · 48th of 138
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 42-3 vs. Delaware6 headlines · 55th of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Virginia’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

5%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled44th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Age 46 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    His 5th season at Virginia
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.

Report card

Defense carries it: 53rd percentile defense, below the median offense at 44th.

Virginia, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

C
of which —44th
efficiency — 44th percentile success rate, 2022–25
C41st
Standard-downs success
B-54th
Passing-downs success
B69th
Trench push (line yards)
C-34th
Red-zone scoring rate
B63rd
Power-success (short yardage)
C-32nd
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B-
of which —53rd
53rd percentile SP+ defense, 2022–25
B62nd
Front-7 havoc
A80th
Secondary havoc
D18th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C-39th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.