Florida A&M upsets Alabama State 28-27
Team pages: Florida A&M · Alabama State
Florida A&M beat Alabama State 28-27 as a 14.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 2%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 2% or less in about 1 of every 70 games since 2018.
We had Alabama State favored. Florida A&M won.
Next: Florida A&M lost to Jackson State 27-17, Sat Oct 17
Next: Alabama State beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 21-15, Sat Oct 17
How it swung
The turning point: Abu-Akel 47-yd field goal no good, blocked (Q4, 0:12). Florida A&M went from 37% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida A&M a 13% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida A&M was a 14.5-point underdog) put it at 12%.
Florida A&M 28-27 Alabama State
Florida A&M wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Alabama State 27-28 Florida A&MAlabama State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The four plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:03Parker 89-yd TD pass to Burris, Florida A&M goes ahead 28-27Florida A&M 7% → 33% (+26)
- 2Q4 1:4751-yd puntFlorida A&M 67% → 38% (−29)
- 3Q4 1:35FumbleHostzclaw 0-yd run, fumblesFlorida A&M 35% → 70% (+35)
- 4Q4 0:12Abu-Akel 47-yd field goal no good, blockedFlorida A&M 37% → 100% (+63)
The four plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:03Parker 89-yd TD pass to Burris, Florida A&M goes ahead 28-27Alabama State 93% → 67% (−26)
- 2Q4 1:4751-yd puntAlabama State 33% → 62% (+29)
- 3Q4 1:35FumbleHostzclaw 0-yd run, fumblesAlabama State 65% → 30% (−35)
- 4Q4 0:12Abu-Akel 47-yd field goal no good, blockedAlabama State 63% → 0% (−63)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Alabama State -14.5), at 12% for Florida A&M (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Florida A&M scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Alabama State on 3 of its 11.
Florida A&M’s drives are teal, Alabama State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Alabama State’s side
Alabama State’s best moment: 51-yd punt (Q4 1:47). It lifted Alabama State’s win chance by 29 points.
The winner fell to 2%.
Box score
Florida A&M 28, Alabama State 27
Florida A&M covered +14.5 by 15.5. The total, 55, went over 47.5.
Florida A&M leaders
- Passing Armond Parker 13 of 20, 290 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Armond Parker 9 for 49 yds, 1 TD; Jamal Hailey 12 for 44 yds
- Receiving Armand Burris 4 for 216 yds, 2 TD; Corey Petty 3 for 37 yds
Alabama State leaders
- Passing Aaron Frye 10 of 15, 107 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Jamarie Hostzclaw 28 for 128 yds, 1 TD; Aaron Frye 11 for 76 yds
- Receiving Kareem Keye 2 for 34 yds; Tj Ramsey 5 for 28 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Florida A&M · 1-4
Rated 192nd in our preseason ratings, 235th now.
Three straight losses.
L 26-29 vs Tennessee State #208 of 668
lost by 3 as a 3-point favorite
L 13-31 vs South Carolina State #134 of 668
lost by 18 as a 19.5-point underdog
W 20-7 vs Albany State #271 of 668
Last three games
Alabama State · 3-2
Rated 114th in our preseason ratings, 152nd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 41-15 vs Mississippi Valley State #265 of 668
won by 26 as a 34.5-point favorite
W 34-0 vs Lane College #399 of 668
Week by week
Alabama State
- Wk 1Wvs Southern30-17
- Wk 1Wvs Lane College34-0
- Wk 2Lat Troy17-34
- Wk 4Wvs Mississippi Valley State41-15
- Wk 5Lat Bethune-Cookman10-16
Florida A&M
- Wk 1Wvs Albany State20-7
- Wk 1Lvs South Carolina State13-31
- Wk 2Lat Miami7-77
- Wk 3Lvs Tennessee State26-29
- Wk 4Lvs Alabama A&M21-40
Power rating by week
Alabama State is rated 4.8 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Florida A&M leads the series 5-2
7 meetings since 2003 · Alabama State won the last meeting
- 2025Alabama State 42-14
- 2024Florida A&M 28-13
- 2023Florida A&M 23-10
- 2022Florida A&M 21-14
- 2021Florida A&M 28-0
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Alabama State’s chances here.
Alabama State favored by 14.5 · Total 47.5
How games like this usually go
Alabama State by 14.5, on the usual path until 6:03 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The total fell 6 points.
Total: 53.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Alabama State has been 0.3 points worse at home than on the road since 2018 — worse at home, 1st percentile.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-1 home, 0-9 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.8 at home vs. away over 40 games — outside the ±6.1 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 178 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Alabama State4th2-1
- Florida A&M10th0-1