Alabama State beats Arkansas-Pine Bluff 21-15

Team pages: Alabama State · Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Alabama State4-321
Arkansas-Pine Bluff3-315Final
Sat, Oct 17 · Golden Lion Stadium, Pine Bluff, Ark.

Alabama State beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 21-15.

We had Arkansas-Pine Bluff favored. Alabama State won.

Next: Alabama State vs Alabama A&M, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET

Next: Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Florida A&M, Sat Oct 24 · 3:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Howard 7-yd TD run, Alabama State goes ahead 7-6 (Q2, 12:02). Alabama State went from 34% to 56% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Alabama State a 35% chance, and the closing betting line (Alabama State was a 3.5-point favorite) put it at 61%.

A tight one: Alabama State bottomed out at 31% and won.

Up to 69% in the second quarter, then Arkansas-Pine Bluff lost it.

FinalAlabama State 21-15 Arkansas-Pine BluffAlabama State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q459% at halfAlabama StateLowest 31%Won21-1512+22+22Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q459% at halfAlabama StateLowest 31%Won21-1512Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q441% at halfAlabama StateHigh 69%Lost15-2112−22−22Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q441% at halfAlabama StateHigh 69%Lost15-2112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 12:02Howard 7-yd TD run, Alabama State goes ahead 7-6Alabama State 34% → 56% (+22)
  2. 2Q4 2:00Schierholz incomplete to RobinsonAlabama State 78% → 100% (+22)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 12:02Howard 7-yd TD run, Alabama State goes ahead 7-6Arkansas-Pine Bluff 66% → 44% (−22)
  2. 2Q4 2:00Schierholz incomplete to RobinsonArkansas-Pine Bluff 22% → 0% (−22)
Alabama State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Alabama State -3.5), at 56% for Alabama State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Alabama State scored on 3 of its 10 drives; Arkansas-Pine Bluff on 4 of its 9.

Alabama State’s drives are teal, Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Alabama State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 63InterceptionArkansas-Pine Bluff: Field goal, from 45 yards out to 15Field goalAlabama State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Field goal, from 61 yards out to 8Field goalQ2Alabama State: Touchdown, from 38 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Turned over on downs, from 74 yards out to 1DownsAlabama State: Touchdown, from 40 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama State: End of half, from 61 yards out to 62End of halfQ3Arkansas-Pine Bluff: Punt, from 65 yards out to 40PuntAlabama State: Punt, from 97 yards out to 76PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Punt, from 70 yards out to 62PuntAlabama State: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Arkansas-Pine Bluff: Interception, from 68 yards out to 12InterceptionAlabama State: Punt, from 98 yards out to 84PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Field goal, from 55 yards out to 7Field goalAlabama State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 52PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Interception, from 92 yards out to 56InterceptionAlabama State: End of game, from 69 yards out to 70End of game

From Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s side

Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s best moment: Schierholz intercepted by Sims at the ASU31 (Q4 0:25). It lifted Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s win chance by 11 points.

Too close to call on 51% of plays.

Box score

Alabama State 21, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 15

Alabama State covered −3.5 by 2.5. The total, 36, stayed under 54.5.

Alabama State leaders

  • Passing Aaron Frye 15 of 16, 105 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jareese Howard 7 for 70 yds, 2 TD; Jamarie Hostzclaw 9 for 21 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Kareem Keye 5 for 35 yds; Randall King 3 for 24 yds

Arkansas-Pine Bluff leaders

  • Passing Jack Schierholz 21 of 37, 243 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Za'Marion Webber 6 for 37 yds; Jaylen Jennings 11 for 35 yds
  • Receiving Demetric Whitlock Jr. 6 for 107 yds; D'Avery Robinson 7 for 81 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Alabama State · 3-3

Rated 114th in our preseason ratings, 163rd now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 27-28 vs Florida A&M #220 of 668

lost by 1 as a 14.5-point favorite

Alabama State lost 27-28 vs Florida A&M. Chance to win started at 88%, low under 1%, high 98%.

L 10-16 @ Bethune-Cookman #176 of 668

lost by 6 as a 7-point favorite

Alabama State lost 10-16 at Bethune-Cookman. Chance to win started at 62%, low 2%, high 64%.

W 41-15 vs Mississippi Valley State #265 of 668

won by 26 as a 34.5-point favorite

Last three games

Arkansas-Pine Bluff · 3-2

Rated 248th in our preseason ratings, 184th now, up 64 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 31-point win over Southern as a 3-point underdog.

W 41-10 @ Southern #248 of 668

won by 31 as a 3-point underdog

Arkansas-Pine Bluff won 41-10 at Southern. Chance to win started at 36%, low 18%, high better than 99%.

W 41-35 vs Central State #358 of 668

Arkansas-Pine Bluff won 41-35 vs Central State. Chance to win started at 60%, low 51%, high better than 99%.

L 51-53 @ Alcorn State #173 of 668

lost by 2 as an 8.5-point underdog

Week by week

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Wk 1: W 35-15 vs Morehouse▲20MorehouseWk 1: L 14-54 at Missouri▼40MissouriWk 2: L 51-53 at Alcorn State▼2Alcorn S…Wk 3: W 41-35 vs Central State▲6C. St.Wk 5: W 41-10 at Southern▲31Southern
  • Wk 1Wvs Morehouse35-15
  • Wk 1Lat Missouri14-54
  • Wk 2Lat Alcorn State51-53
  • Wk 3Wvs Central State41-35
  • Wk 5Wat Southern41-10

Alabama State

Wk 1: W 34-0 vs Lane College▲34Lane Col…Wk 2: L 17-34 at Troy▼17TroyWk 4: W 41-15 vs Mississippi Valley State▲26Mississi…Wk 5: L 10-16 at Bethune-Cookman▼6Bethune-…Wk 6: L 27-28 vs Florida A&M▼1F. A&M
  • Wk 1Wvs Lane College34-0
  • Wk 2Lat Troy17-34
  • Wk 4Wvs Mississippi Valley State41-15
  • Wk 5Lat Bethune-Cookman10-16
  • Wk 6Lvs Florida A&M27-28

Power rating by week

Alabama State is rated 1.8 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-8-13Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Arkansas-Pine BluffAlabama State

The series

Alabama State leads the series 9-2

11 meetings since 2007 · Alabama State won the last meeting

Arkansas-Pine Bluff wonAlabama State won2007: Alabama State by 22010: Alabama State by 72011: Alabama State by 162012: Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 32013: Alabama State by 12014: Alabama State by 352015: Alabama State by 72016: Alabama State by 202021: Alabama State by 202022: Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 52025: Alabama State by 3120072025
  • 2025Alabama State 44-13
  • 2022Arkansas-Pine Bluff 19-14
  • 2021Alabama State 35-15
  • 2016Alabama State 41-21
  • 2015Alabama State 31-24

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s chances here.

50-50Model · 65%Line · 39%Alabama StateArkansas-Pine Bluff

Alabama State favored by 3.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

Alabama State by 3.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

opened +4.5now +3.5

The total fell 5 points.

opened 59.5now 54.5

Spread: +4.5 → +3.5 · Total: 59.5 → 54.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-7 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3.

The visitors travel about 356 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.