Arkansas-Pine Bluff beats Central State 41-35

Team pages: Central State · Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Central State1-335
Arkansas-Pine Bluff2-241Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Golden Lion Stadium, Pine Bluff, Ark. · Crowd 7,325SWAC TV

Arkansas-Pine Bluff beat Central State 41-35.

We had Arkansas-Pine Bluff favored. It won.

Next: Central State beat Lane College 38-6, Sat Sep 26

Next: Arkansas-Pine Bluff beat Southern 41-10, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Wasik sacked for a 2-yd loss, turnover on downs (Q4, 1:15). Arkansas-Pine Bluff went from 77% to 98% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arkansas-Pine Bluff a 94% chance.

Favored the whole way: Arkansas-Pine Bluff never fell below 50%.

Central State never had better than a 49% chance.

FinalArkansas-Pine Bluff 41-35 Central StateArkansas-Pine Bluff wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q494% at halfArkansas-Pine BluffWon41-3512−16+21Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q494% at halfArkansas-Pine BluffWon41-3512Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q46% at halfArkansas-Pine BluffLowest 0%Lost35-4112+16−21Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q46% at halfArkansas-Pine BluffLowest 0%Lost35-4112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 12:3436-yd puntArkansas-Pine Bluff 68% → 52% (−16)
  2. 2Q4 1:154th and 7Wasik sacked for a 2-yd loss, turnover on downsArkansas-Pine Bluff 77% → 98% (+21)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 12:3436-yd puntCentral State 32% → 48% (+16)
  2. 2Q4 1:154th and 7Wasik sacked for a 2-yd loss, turnover on downsCentral State 23% → 2% (−21)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartNot adjusted for the pregame line. Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Arkansas-Pine Bluff scored on 7 of its 13 drives; Central State on 5 of its 13.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s drives are teal, Central State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Arkansas-Pine Bluff: Punt, from 75 yards out to 56PuntCentral State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 77PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 54 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 60PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Field goal, from 72 yards out to 18Field goalQ2Central State: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Interception, from 75 yards out to 54InterceptionCentral State: Interception, from 59 yards out to 46InterceptionArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral State: Punt, from 71 yards out to 53PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Field goal, from 87 yards out to 22Field goalCentral State: End of half, from 64 yards out to 62End of halfQ3Central State: Punt, from 95 yards out to 99PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral State: Punt, from 69 yards out to 73PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral State: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Interception, from 75 yards out to 31InterceptionCentral State: Touchdown, from 100 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Arkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral State: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Turned over on downs, from 51 yards out to 31DownsCentral State: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Punt, from 75 yards out to 51PuntCentral State: Turned over on downs, from 84 yards out to 43DownsArkansas-Pine Bluff: End of game, from 57 yards out to 63End of game

From Central State’s side

Central State’s best moment: 36-yd punt (Q1 12:34). It lifted Central State’s win chance by 16 points.

Box score

Arkansas-Pine Bluff 41, Central State 35

Central State leaders

  • Passing Jackson Wasik 30 of 43, 464 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Isaiah Thompson 7 for 14 yds; Kaleb Jenkins 8 for 13 yds
  • Receiving Nicholas Smith 11 for 232 yds, 3 TD; Jae-Lijah Cochran 7 for 83 yds

Arkansas-Pine Bluff leaders

  • Passing Garrison Davis 11 of 16, 127 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Za'Marion Webber 8 for 77 yds, 1 TD; Jack Schierholz 2 for 69 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving D'Avery Robinson 2 for 65 yds, 1 TD; Demetric Whitlock Jr. 4 for 53 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Central State · 1-2

Rated 389th in our preseason ratings, 376th now, up 13 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 49-21 @ Morehouse #416 of 668

L 26-48 @ Grambling #202 of 668

Central State lost 26-48 at Grambling. Chance to win started at 44%, low under 1%, high 44%.

L 14-41 vs Kentucky State #287 of 668

Last three games

Arkansas-Pine Bluff · 1-2

Rated 248th in our preseason ratings, 233rd now, up 15 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 51-53 @ Alcorn State #173 of 668

lost by 2 as an 8.5-point underdog

L 14-54 @ MissouriTop 25 #42 of 668

lost by 40 as a 55.5-point underdog

Arkansas-Pine Bluff lost 14-54 at Missouri. Never had a real chance.

W 35-15 vs Morehouse #402 of 668

Arkansas-Pine Bluff won 35-15 vs Morehouse. Chance to win started at 50%, low 46%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Wk 1: W 35-15 vs Morehouse▲20MorehouseWk 1: L 14-54 at Missouri▼40MissouriWk 2: L 51-53 at Alcorn State▼2Alcorn State
  • Wk 1Wvs Morehouse35-15
  • Wk 1Lat Missouri14-54
  • Wk 2Lat Alcorn State51-53

Central State

Wk 1: L 14-41 vs Kentucky State▼27Kentucky StateWk 1: L 26-48 at Grambling▼22GramblingWk 2: W 49-21 at Morehouse▲28Morehouse
  • Wk 1Lvs Kentucky State14-41
  • Wk 1Lat Grambling26-48
  • Wk 2Wat Morehouse49-21

Power rating by week

Arkansas-Pine Bluff is rated 12.8 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-8-17-25Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2Arkansas-Pine BluffCentral State

The series

Central State leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2017 · Central State won the last meeting

  • 2017Central State 40-35

Line, fans and home field

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-7 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3.

The visitors travel about 583 miles to get here.

Where next