Arkansas-Pine Bluff routs Southern 41-10

Team pages: Arkansas-Pine Bluff · Southern

Arkansas-Pine Bluff3-241
Southern2-410Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Ace W. Mumford Stadium, Baton Rouge, La. · Crowd 21,890

Arkansas-Pine Bluff routed Southern 41-10.

Next: Arkansas-Pine Bluff lost to Alabama State 21-15, Sat Oct 17

Next: Southern beat Prairie View A&M 28-14, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Jennings intercepted by Williams at the SUBR30, returned 63 yards (Q3, 11:49). Arkansas-Pine Bluff went from 82% to 66% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arkansas-Pine Bluff a 46% chance, and the closing betting line (Arkansas-Pine Bluff was a 3-point underdog) put it at 40%.

FinalArkansas-Pine Bluff 41-10 SouthernArkansas-Pine Bluff wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q479% at halfSouthernLowest 18%Won41-101−16Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q479% at halfSouthernLowest 18%Won41-101Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q421% at halfSouthernLowest 0%High 82%Lost10-411+16Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q421% at halfSouthernLowest 0%High 82%Lost10-411Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q3 11:49InterceptionJennings intercepted by Williams at the SUBR30, returned 63 yardsArkansas-Pine Bluff 82% → 66% (−16)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q3 11:49InterceptionJennings intercepted by Williams at the SUBR30, returned 63 yardsSouthern 18% → 34% (+16)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Southern -3), at 36% for Arkansas-Pine Bluff (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Arkansas-Pine Bluff scored on 7 of its 10 drives; Southern on 2 of its 11.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s drives are teal, Southern’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Southern: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 41 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern: Field goal, from 77 yards out to 6Field goalArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 40 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Southern: Punt, from 71 yards out to 56PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Punt, from 65 yards out to 53PuntSouthern: Punt, from 91 yards out to 41PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 17Field goalSouthern: End of half, from 75 yards out to 74End of halfQ3Arkansas-Pine Bluff: Field goal, from 35 yards out to 20Field goalSouthern: Punt, from 86 yards out to 84PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Interception, from 53 yards out to 53InterceptionSouthern: Interception, from 7 yards out to 11InterceptionArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 92 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern: Punt, from 92 yards out to 87PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 46 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern: Punt, from 88 yards out to 59PuntQ4Arkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern: Turned over on downs, from 80 yards out to 33DownsArkansas-Pine Bluff: Turned over on downs, from 67 yards out to 8DownsSouthern: End of game, from 92 yards out to 80End of game

From Southern’s side

Southern’s best moment: Jennings intercepted by Williams at the SUBR30, returned 63 yards (Q3 11:49). It lifted Southern’s win chance by 16 points.

Box score

Arkansas-Pine Bluff 41, Southern 10

Arkansas-Pine Bluff covered +3 by 34. The total, 51, stayed under 55.5.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff leaders

  • Passing Garrison Davis 15 of 22, 154 yds, 4 TD
  • Rushing Garrison Davis 8 for 92 yds; Jalen Williams 3 for 78 yds
  • Receiving Demetric Whitlock Jr. 8 for 94 yds, 1 TD; D'Avery Robinson 3 for 48 yds, 2 TD

Southern leaders

  • Passing Wyatt McCauley 12 of 24, 141 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Trey Holly 23 for 114 yds; Macario Dade Jr. 5 for 41 yds
  • Receiving Miles Dixon 3 for 60 yds; Daejawn Smith 6 for 56 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Arkansas-Pine Bluff · 2-2

Rated 248th in our preseason ratings, 242nd now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 41-35 vs Central State #358 of 668

Arkansas-Pine Bluff won 41-35 vs Central State. Chance to win started at 60%, low 51%, high better than 99%.

L 51-53 @ Alcorn State #173 of 668

lost by 2 as an 8.5-point underdog

L 14-54 @ MissouriTop 25 #42 of 668

lost by 40 as a 55.5-point underdog

Arkansas-Pine Bluff lost 14-54 at Missouri. Never had a real chance.

W 35-15 vs Morehouse #402 of 668

Arkansas-Pine Bluff won 35-15 vs Morehouse. Chance to win started at 50%, low 46%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Southern · 2-3

Rated 201st in our preseason ratings, 222nd now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 17-35 @ Jackson State #122 of 668

lost by 18 as a 20.5-point underdog

W 50-31 vs Louisiana Christian

Southern won 50-31 vs Louisiana Christian. Chance to win started at 60%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

L 6-77 @ HoustonTop 25 #23 of 668

lost by 71 as a 51.5-point underdog

Southern lost 6-77 at Houston. Never had a real chance.

Week by week

Southern

Wk 1: L 17-30 at Alabama State▼13Alabama…Wk 1: W 34-15 vs Kentucky State▲19Kentucky…Wk 2: L 6-77 at Houston▼71HoustonWk 3: W 50-31 vs Louisiana Christian▲19L. Chris…Wk 4: L 17-35 at Jackson State▼18Jackson…
  • Wk 1Lat Alabama State17-30
  • Wk 1Wvs Kentucky State34-15
  • Wk 2Lat Houston6-77
  • Wk 3Wvs Louisiana Christian50-31
  • Wk 4Lat Jackson State17-35

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Wk 1: W 35-15 vs Morehouse▲20MorehouseWk 1: L 14-54 at Missouri▼40MissouriWk 2: L 51-53 at Alcorn State▼2Alcorn StateWk 3: W 41-35 vs Central State▲6Central St.
  • Wk 1Wvs Morehouse35-15
  • Wk 1Lat Missouri14-54
  • Wk 2Lat Alcorn State51-53
  • Wk 3Wvs Central State41-35

Power rating by week

Southern is rated 0.7 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-8-10-12Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4SouthernArkansas-Pine Bluff

The series

Southern leads the series 13-5

18 meetings since 2007 · Arkansas-Pine Bluff won the last meeting

Southern wonArkansas-Pine Bluff won2007: Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 22008: Southern by 72009: Southern by 142010: Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 182011: Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 12012: Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 292013: Southern by 82014: Southern by 152015: Southern by 332016: Southern by 322017: Southern by 72018: Southern by 322019: Southern by 242021: Southern by 272022: Southern by 562023: Southern by 272024: Southern by 222025: Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 1920072025
  • 2025Arkansas-Pine Bluff 40-21
  • 2024Southern 31-9
  • 2023Southern 27-0
  • 2022Southern 59-3
  • 2021Southern 34-7

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Southern’s chances here.

50-50Model 54% · Line 60%Arkansas-Pine BluffSouthern

Southern favored by 3 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Southern by 3, on the usual path until Q3 10:54

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

opened −4.5now −3

The total fell 1 point.

opened 56.5now 55.5

Spread: −4.5 → −3 · Total: 56.5 → 55.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-7 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.0 at home vs. away over 42 games — inside the ±9.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 262 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.