Southern upsets Prairie View A&M 28-14

Team pages: Southern · Prairie View A&M

Southern3-428
Prairie View A&M2-514Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Panther Stadium, Prairie View, Texas · Crowd 9,410

Southern beat Prairie View A&M 28-14 as a 15.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 4%.

Winners have been down to 4% or less in about 1 of every 30 games since 2018.

We had Prairie View A&M favored. Southern won.

Next: Southern at Texas Southern, Sat Oct 24 · 3:00 PM ET

Next: Prairie View A&M beat Alcorn State 41-38, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Carter intercepted by Brister at the PVU47 and returned for a TD, Southern leads 28-14 (Q4, 0:15). Southern went from 65% to 97% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Southern a 14% chance, and the closing betting line (Southern was a 15.5-point underdog) put it at 11%.

21 unansweredSouthern · Q4 7:00
FinalSouthern 28-14 Prairie View A&MSouthern wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfSouthernLowest 4%Won28-14Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfSouthernLowest 4%Won28-14Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfSouthernHigh 96%Lost14-28Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfSouthernHigh 96%Lost14-28Scores21 unanswered

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 3:0628-yd puntSouthern 80% → 61% (−19)
  2. 2Q4 1:5637-yd puntSouthern 73% → 95% (+22)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 3:0628-yd puntPrairie View A&M 20% → 39% (+19)
  2. 2Q4 1:5637-yd puntPrairie View A&M 27% → 5% (−22)
Southern’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Prairie View A&M -15.5), at 10% for Southern (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Southern scored on 3 of its 13 drives; Prairie View A&M on 2 of its 14.

Southern’s drives are teal, Prairie View A&M’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Southern: Missed field goal, from 79 yards out to 31Missed FGPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 69 yards out to 62PuntSouthern: Punt, from 86 yards out to 77PuntPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 64 yards out to 62PuntSouthern: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 69 yards out to 51PuntQ2Southern: Punt, from 86 yards out to 78PuntPrairie View A&M: Touchdown, from 51 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern: Punt, from 78 yards out to 57PuntPrairie View A&M: Interception, from 86 yards out to 76InterceptionSouthern: Turned over on downs, from 26 yards out to 5DownsPrairie View A&M: Fumble, from 95 yards out to 1FumbleSouthern: End of half, from 99 yards out to 93End of halfQ3Prairie View A&M: Touchdown, from 48 yards out to 0TouchdownSouthern: Turned over on downs, from 8 yards out to 0DownsPrairie View A&M: Turned over on downs, from 58 yards out to 22DownsSouthern: Punt, from 73 yards out to 60PuntPrairie View A&M: Interception, from 63 yards out to 38InterceptionSouthern: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 73 yards out to 49PuntQ4Southern: Touchdown, from 89 yards out to 0TouchdownPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 65 yards out to 63PuntSouthern: Punt, from 69 yards out to 62PuntPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 66 yards out to 67PuntSouthern: Punt, from 70 yards out to 66PuntPrairie View A&M: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 56 yards out to 53Interception TDPrairie View A&M: End of game, from 81 yards out to 43End of game

From Prairie View A&M’s side

Prairie View A&M’s best moment: 28-yd punt (Q4 3:06). It lifted Prairie View A&M’s win chance by 19 points.

The winner fell to 4%.

Box score

Southern 28, Prairie View A&M 14

Southern covered +15.5 by 29.5. The total, 42, stayed under 50.5.

Southern leaders

  • Passing Christian Johnson 9 of 22, 207 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Trey Holly 29 for 121 yds, 1 TD; Christian Johnson 9 for 34 yds
  • Receiving Damien Henderson Jr. 2 for 115 yds, 2 TD; Jason Harris Jr. 1 for 49 yds

Prairie View A&M leaders

  • Passing Tevin Carter 20 of 33, 179 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
  • Rushing Jahbari Kuykendall 11 for 86 yds; Tevin Carter 15 for 50 yds
  • Receiving Damien McDaniel 7 for 101 yds, 1 TD; Rodny Ojo 5 for 53 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Southern · 2-4

Rated 201st in our preseason ratings, 248th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 10-41 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff #200 of 668

lost by 31 as a 3-point favorite

Southern lost 10-41 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Chance to win started at 64%, low under 1%, high 82%.

L 17-35 @ Jackson State #122 of 668

lost by 18 as a 20.5-point underdog

W 50-31 vs Louisiana Christian

Southern won 50-31 vs Louisiana Christian. Chance to win started at 60%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Prairie View A&M · 2-4

Rated 104th in our preseason ratings, 154th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 27-28 @ Mississippi Valley State #262 of 668

lost by 1 as a 29.5-point favorite

Prairie View A&M lost 27-28 at Mississippi Valley State. Chance to win started at 97%, low under 1%, high better than 99%.

W 21-14 @ Grambling #201 of 668

won by 7 as an 11.5-point favorite

L 10-31 vs Stephen F. Austin #88 of 668

lost by 21 as a 16.5-point underdog

Prairie View A&M lost 10-31 vs Stephen F. Austin. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 16%.

L 3-44 @ Baylor #36 of 668

lost by 41 as a 37.5-point underdog

Prairie View A&M lost 3-44 at Baylor. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

W 52-14 vs Texas Southern #205 of 668

won by 38 as a 10.5-point favorite

Prairie View A&M won 52-14 vs Texas Southern. Chance to win started at 91%, low 89%, high better than 99%.

L 30-49 @ Tarleton State #94 of 668

lost by 19 as a 19.5-point underdog

Prairie View A&M lost 30-49 at Tarleton State. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 12%.

Week by week

Prairie View A&M

Wk 1: W 52-14 vs Texas Southern▲38T. South…Wk 2: L 3-44 at Baylor▼41BaylorWk 3: L 10-31 vs Stephen F. Austin▼21Stephen…Wk 4: W 21-14 at Grambling▲7GramblingWk 5: L 27-28 at Mississippi Valley State▼1Mississi…
  • Wk 1Wvs Texas Southern52-14
  • Wk 2Lat Baylor3-44
  • Wk 3Lvs Stephen F. Austin10-31
  • Wk 4Wat Grambling21-14
  • Wk 5Lat Mississippi Valley State27-28

Southern

Wk 1: W 34-15 vs Kentucky State▲19Kentucky…Wk 2: L 6-77 at Houston▼71HoustonWk 3: W 50-31 vs Louisiana Christian▲19L. Chris…Wk 4: L 17-35 at Jackson State▼18Jackson…Wk 5: L 10-41 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff▼31Arkansas…
  • Wk 1Wvs Kentucky State34-15
  • Wk 2Lat Houston6-77
  • Wk 3Wvs Louisiana Christian50-31
  • Wk 4Lat Jackson State17-35
  • Wk 5Lvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff10-41

Power rating by week

Prairie View A&M is rated 5.6 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-2-7-12Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5Prairie View A&MSouthern

The series

Southern leads the series 10-8

18 meetings since 1977 · Prairie View A&M won the last meeting

Prairie View A&M wonSouthern won1977: Southern by 402007: Southern by 102008: Prairie View A&M by 12009: Prairie View A&M by 22010: Prairie View A&M by 142011: Prairie View A&M by 32012: Prairie View A&M by 202013: Southern by 32014: Southern by 102016: Southern by 102017: Southern by 62018: Southern by 382019: Southern by 62021: Prairie View A&M by 272022: Southern by 322023: Prairie View A&M by 62024: Southern by 72025: Prairie View A&M by 2119772025
  • 2025Prairie View A&M 24-3
  • 2024Southern 31-24
  • 2023Prairie View A&M 27-21
  • 2022Southern 45-13
  • 2021Prairie View A&M 48-21

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Prairie View A&M’s chances here.

50-50Model 86% · Line 89%SouthernPrairie View A&M

Prairie View A&M favored by 15.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Prairie View A&M by 15.5, on the usual path until Q3 0:00

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The total fell 6 points.

opened 56.5now 50.5

Total: 56.5 → 50.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-9 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.7 at home vs. away over 49 games — inside the ±10.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 288 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.