Alabama State upsets Southern 30-17
Team pages: Southern · Alabama State
Alabama State beat Southern 30-17 as a 19.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 5%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 5% or less in about 1 of every 20 games since 2018.
How it swung
The turning point: Body 9-yd TD pass to King, Alabama State leads 27-17 (Q3, 3:38). Alabama State went from 35% to 58% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Alabama State a 68% chance, and the closing betting line (Alabama State was a 19.5-point underdog) put it at 6%.
Alabama State · Q3 5:30Alabama State 30-17 Southern
Alabama State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Southern 17-30 Alabama StateSouthern lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The play that swung it
- 1Q3 3:38Body 9-yd TD pass to King, Alabama State leads 27-17Alabama State 35% → 58% (+23)
The play that swung it
- 1Q3 3:38Body 9-yd TD pass to King, Alabama State leads 27-17Southern 65% → 42% (−23)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Southern -19.5), at 16% for Alabama State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Alabama State scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Southern on 3 of its 13.
Alabama State’s drives are teal, Southern’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
The winner fell to 4%.
Box score
Alabama State 30, Southern 17
Alabama State covered +19.5 by 32.5. The total, 47, stayed under 56.5.
Southern leaders
- Passing Christian Johnson 17 of 27, 174 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Christian Johnson 14 for 81 yds, 1 TD; Trey Holly 15 for 38 yds
- Receiving Daejawn Smith 4 for 76 yds; Trey Holly 3 for 22 yds
Alabama State leaders
- Passing Andrew Body 14 of 23, 192 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Jamarie Hostzclaw 15 for 49 yds, 1 TD; Tj Ramsey 7 for 47 yds
- Receiving Randall King 4 for 77 yds, 1 TD; Kareem Keye 4 for 39 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Southern · 2-10
Rated 201st in our preseason ratings.
W 28-27 vs Grambling #202 of 667
won by 1 as a 13.5-point favorite
L 30-35 vs Texas Southern #221 of 667
lost by 5 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 17-35 @ Alcorn State #185 of 667
lost by 18 as an 11-point underdog
L 21-40 @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff #250 of 667
lost by 19 as a 1-point favorite
L 35-43 vs Florida A&M #216 of 667
lost by 8 as a 3-point underdog
L 3-24 vs Prairie View A&M #167 of 667
lost by 21 as an 8.5-point underdog
L 14-45 @ Bethune-Cookman #195 of 667
lost by 31 as a 1-point underdog
L 13-38 vs Jackson State #95 of 667
lost by 25 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 7-56 @ Fresno State #84 of 667
lost by 49 as a 35.5-point underdog
L 7-30 vs Alabama State #139 of 667
lost by 23 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 34-29 @ Mississippi Valley State #249 of 667
won by 5 as a 12.5-point favorite
L 14-31 vs North Carolina Central #158 of 667
lost by 17 as a 10.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Alabama State · 10-2
Rated 114th in our preseason ratings.
W 58-21 vs Tuskegee #363 of 667
W 44-13 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff #252 of 667
won by 31 as a 26.5-point favorite
W 41-3 @ Mississippi Valley State #258 of 667
won by 38 as a 29.5-point favorite
W 42-24 vs Texas Southern #225 of 667
won by 18 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 31-28 @ Prairie View A&M #159 of 667
won by 3 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 56-13 @ Alabama A&M #220 of 667
won by 43 as a 14-point favorite
L 34-38 @ Jackson State #91 of 667
lost by 4 as an 8.5-point underdog
W 52-35 vs Bethune-Cookman #213 of 667
won by 17 as a 13-point favorite
W 42-14 @ Florida A&M #183 of 667
won by 28 as a 4-point favorite
W 37-9 vs Miles #300 of 667
W 30-7 @ Southern #216 of 667
won by 23 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 42-52 @ UAB #120 of 667
lost by 10 as a 21.5-point underdog
The series
Southern leads the series 8-3
11 meetings since 2007 · Alabama State has won the last 2
- 2025Alabama State 30-7
- 2023Alabama State 14-10
- 2016Southern 64-6
- 2015Southern 45-34
- 2014Southern 28-21
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Alabama State’s chances here.
Southern favored by 19.5 · Total 56.5
How games like this usually go
Southern by 19.5, on the usual path until Q3 8:42
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 39 points toward Southern.
Spread: −19.5 → +19.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds