Jackson State beats Florida A&M 27-17

Team pages: Florida A&M · Jackson State

Florida A&M2-517
Jackson State6-127Final
Sat, Oct 17 · Mississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium, Jackson, Miss. · Crowd 44,173ESPN+

Jackson State beat Florida A&M 27-17.

We had Jackson State favored. It won.

Next: Florida A&M vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Sat Oct 24 · 3:00 PM ET

Next: Jackson State at Bethune-Cookman, Sat Oct 24 · 1:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Lockhart 9-yd run, fumbles (Q3, 1:00). Jackson State went from 74% to 56% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Jackson State an 87% chance, and the closing betting line (Jackson State was a 15.5-point favorite) put it at 89%.

Favored the whole way: Jackson State never fell below 51%.

Florida A&M never had better than a 48% chance.

FinalJackson State 27-17 Florida A&MJackson State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfJackson StateWon27-1712−18+17Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfJackson StateWon27-1712Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfJackson StateLost17-2712+18−17Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfJackson StateLost17-2712Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 1:00FumbleLockhart 9-yd run, fumblesJackson State 74% → 56% (−18)
  2. 2Q4 14:51Special teams43-yd punt, Jones returns it 3Jackson State 52% → 69% (+17)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 1:00FumbleLockhart 9-yd run, fumblesFlorida A&M 26% → 44% (+18)
  2. 2Q4 14:51Special teams43-yd punt, Jones returns it 3Florida A&M 48% → 31% (−17)
Jackson State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Jackson State -15.5), at 90% for Jackson State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Jackson State scored on 4 of its 17 drives; Florida A&M on 3 of its 13.

Jackson State’s drives are teal, Florida A&M’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Florida A&M: Interception, from 90 yards out to 91InterceptionJackson State: Touchdown, from 23 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida A&M: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownJackson State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntFlorida A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 51PuntJackson State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 48PuntQ2Florida A&M: Punt, from 80 yards out to 72PuntJackson State: Punt, from 69 yards out to 79PuntFlorida A&M: Punt, from 58 yards out to 53PuntJackson State: Punt, from 87 yards out to 73PuntJackson State: Punt, from 62 yards out to 68PuntFlorida A&M: Field goal, from 46 yards out to 5Field goalJackson State: Field goal, from 58 yards out to 14Field goalJackson State: Safety, from 65 yards out to 65SafetyJackson State: Punt, from 52 yards out to 49PuntQ3Jackson State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 63PuntFlorida A&M: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0TouchdownJackson State: Punt, from 78 yards out to 62PuntFlorida A&M: Punt, from 65 yards out to 41PuntJackson State: Fumble, from 84 yards out to 9FumbleFlorida A&M: Punt, from 91 yards out to 82PuntQ4Jackson State: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida A&M: Fumble, from 72 yards out to 71FumbleJackson State: Touchdown, from 29 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida A&M: Interception, from 75 yards out to 80InterceptionJackson State: Interception, from 34 yards out to 36InterceptionFlorida A&M: Punt, from 99 yards out to 80PuntJackson State: Punt, from 62 yards out to 59PuntFlorida A&M: Interception, from 80 yards out to 28InterceptionJackson State: End of game, from 80 yards out to 64End of game

From Florida A&M’s side

Florida A&M’s best moment: Lockhart 9-yd run, fumbles (Q3 1:00). It lifted Florida A&M’s win chance by 18 points.

Box score

Jackson State 27, Florida A&M 17

Florida A&M covered +15.5 by 5.5. The total, 44, stayed under 54.5.

Florida A&M leaders

  • Passing Armond Parker 11 of 27, 163 yds, 3 INT
  • Rushing Jamal Hailey 12 for 111 yds, 1 TD; Chase Gillespie 8 for 32 yds
  • Receiving Lawrence Wright IV 2 for 58 yds; Jamar Taylor Jr. 4 for 44 yds

Jackson State leaders

  • Passing Jared Lockhart 13 of 24, 98 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Li'Darius Pryor 20 for 80 yds; Nate Blount IV 11 for 63 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Jabari Jones 3 for 36 yds, 1 TD; Joanes Fortilien 4 for 33 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Florida A&M · 2-4

Rated 192nd in our preseason ratings, 220th now.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 1-point win over Alabama State as a 14.5-point underdog.

W 28-27 @ Alabama State #163 of 668

won by 1 as a 14.5-point underdog

Florida A&M won 28-27 at Alabama State. Chance to win started at 12%, low 2%, high better than 99%.

L 21-40 vs Alabama A&M #160 of 668

lost by 19 as a 3-point underdog

Florida A&M lost 21-40 vs Alabama A&M. Chance to win started at 51%, low under 1%, high 71%.

L 26-29 vs Tennessee State #208 of 668

lost by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Florida A&M lost 26-29 vs Tennessee State. Chance to win started at 71%, low under 1%, high 84%.

L 7-77 @ MiamiTop 25 #7 of 668

lost by 70 as a 59.5-point underdog

Florida A&M lost 7-77 at Miami. Never had a real chance.

L 13-31 vs South Carolina State #134 of 668

lost by 18 as a 19.5-point underdog

Florida A&M lost 13-31 vs South Carolina State. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 20%.

W 20-7 vs Albany State #271 of 668

Florida A&M won 20-7 vs Albany State. Chance to win started at 59%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Jackson State · 5-1

Rated 110th in our preseason ratings, 125th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 38-45 @ Grambling #191 of 668

lost by 7 as an 8.5-point favorite

Jackson State lost 38-45 at Grambling. Chance to win started at 67%, low under 1%, high 89%.

W 31-28 vs Alabama A&M #149 of 668

won by 3 as a 10-point favorite

Jackson State won 31-28 vs Alabama A&M. Chance to win started at 81%, low 12%, high 97%.

W 35-17 vs Southern #222 of 668

won by 18 as a 20.5-point favorite

Week by week

Jackson State

Wk 1: W 66-14 vs Edward Waters▲52Edward W…Wk 3: W 41-7 vs Tuskegee▲34TuskegeeWk 4: W 35-17 vs Southern▲18SouthernWk 5: W 31-28 vs Alabama A&M▲3Alabama…Wk 6: L 38-45 at Grambling▼7Grambling
  • Wk 1Wvs Edward Waters66-14
  • Wk 3Wvs Tuskegee41-7
  • Wk 4Wvs Southern35-17
  • Wk 5Wvs Alabama A&M31-28
  • Wk 6Lat Grambling38-45

Florida A&M

Wk 1: L 13-31 vs South Carolina State▼18S. Carol…Wk 2: L 7-77 at Miami▼70MiamiWk 3: L 26-29 vs Tennessee State▼3Tennesse…Wk 4: L 21-40 vs Alabama A&M▼19Alabama…Wk 6: W 28-27 at Alabama State▲1Alabama…
  • Wk 1Lvs South Carolina State13-31
  • Wk 2Lat Miami7-77
  • Wk 3Lvs Tennessee State26-29
  • Wk 4Lvs Alabama A&M21-40
  • Wk 6Wat Alabama State28-27

Power rating by week

Jackson State is rated 6.0 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-7-11Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Jackson StateFlorida A&M

The series

Jackson State leads the series 6-2

8 meetings since 2003 · Jackson State has won the last 2

Jackson State wonFlorida A&M won2003: Florida A&M by 142014: Jackson State by 52018: Jackson State by 22021: Jackson State by 12022: Jackson State by 562023: Florida A&M by 182024: Jackson State by 142025: Jackson State by 2520032025
  • 2025Jackson State 41-16
  • 2024Jackson State 35-21
  • 2023 · neutral siteFlorida A&M 28-10
  • 2022 · neutral siteJackson State 59-3
  • 2021Jackson State 7-6

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Jackson State’s chances here.

50-50Model 87% · Line 89%Florida A&MJackson State

Jackson State favored by 15.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

Jackson State by 15.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Jackson State.

opened −13.5now −15.5

Spread: −13.5 → −15.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-6 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.0 at home vs. away over 40 games — inside the ±7.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 371 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.