Jackson State beats Tennessee State 26-24
Team pages: Jackson State · Tennessee State
Jackson State beat Tennessee State 26-24. Share this game
How it swung
The turning point: Lee 1-yd TD run, Tennessee State goes ahead 14-7 (Q2, 6:49). Jackson State went from 66% to 48% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Jackson State a 63% chance, and the closing betting line (Jackson State was a 12.5-point favorite) put it at 84%.
A tight one: Jackson State bottomed out at 38% and won.
Tennessee State led by 10 but, as a 12.5-point underdog, never had better than a 62% chance.
Jackson State 26-24 Tennessee State
Jackson State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Tennessee State 24-26 Jackson StateTennessee State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 6:494th and 1Lee 1-yd TD run, Tennessee State goes ahead 14-7Jackson State 66% → 48% (−18)
- 2Q3 7:06Matthews 2-yd TD run, Jackson State goes ahead 20-17Jackson State 61% → 78% (+17)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 6:494th and 1Lee 1-yd TD run, Tennessee State goes ahead 14-7Tennessee State 34% → 52% (+18)
- 2Q3 7:06Matthews 2-yd TD run, Jackson State goes ahead 20-17Tennessee State 39% → 22% (−17)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Jackson State -12.5), at 77% for Jackson State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Jackson State scored on 6 of its 9 drives; Tennessee State on 4 of its 9.
Jackson State’s drives are teal, Tennessee State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Tennessee State’s side
Tennessee State’s best moment: Lee 1-yd TD run, Tennessee State goes ahead 14-7 (Q2 6:49). It lifted Tennessee State’s win chance by 18 points.
Box score
Jackson State 26, Tennessee State 24
Tennessee State covered +12.5 by 10.5. The total, 50, went over 49.5.
Jackson State leaders
- Passing Jared Lockhart 17 of 26, 222 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Nate Blount IV 15 for 101 yds; Emari Matthews 11 for 33 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Jabari Jones 4 for 117 yds, 1 TD; Jency Riley 2 for 26 yds
Tennessee State leaders
- Passing Daylin Lee 23 of 41, 265 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Daylin Lee 13 for 40 yds, 1 TD; Brenton Paul 9 for 38 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Jayden Guy 9 for 148 yds; Cam Bulluck 7 for 53 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Jackson State · 9-3
Rated 110th in our preseason ratings.
L 21-23 vs Prairie View A&M #94 of 667
W 27-21 @ Alcorn State #167 of 667
won by 6 as a 19.5-point underdog
W 28-13 vs Bethune-Cookman #199 of 667
won by 15 as a 23.5-point favorite
W 42-3 @ Mississippi Valley State #257 of 667
won by 39 as a 27.5-point favorite
W 41-16 @ Florida A&M #222 of 667
won by 25 as a 17-point favorite
L 24-26 @ Grambling #199 of 667
lost by 2 as a 21-point favorite
W 38-34 vs Alabama State #111 of 667
won by 4 as an 8.5-point favorite
W 57-24 @ Alabama A&M #208 of 667
won by 33 as a 14.5-point favorite
W 38-13 @ Southern #239 of 667
won by 25 as a 9.5-point favorite
W 30-0 vs Tuskegee #297 of 667
L 20-38 @ Southern Miss #134 of 667
lost by 18 as a 13.5-point underdog
W 28-14 vs Hampton #210 of 667
won by 14 as an 18.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Tennessee State · 2-10
Rated 217th in our preseason ratings.
L 6-7 @ Charleston Southern #216 of 667
lost by 1 as a 12.5-point underdog
L 14-30 vs Gardner-Webb #166 of 667
lost by 16 as a 15-point underdog
L 7-26 @ UT Martin #166 of 667
lost by 19 as a 14.5-point underdog
L 13-35 vs Lindenwood #208 of 667
lost by 22 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 16-17 vs Western Illinois #239 of 667
lost by 1 as a 3-point favorite
W 24-7 vs Howard #228 of 667
won by 17 as a 2-point underdog
L 12-28 @ Southeast Missouri State #219 of 667
lost by 16 as a 16.5-point underdog
L 7-31 @ Eastern Illinois #203 of 667
lost by 24 as a 5-point underdog
L 8-35 vs Tennessee Tech #103 of 667
lost by 27 as a 31.5-point underdog
L 21-23 vs Alabama A&M #168 of 667
lost by 2 as a 1-point underdog
L 3-59 vs North Dakota State #145 of 667
lost by 56 as a 32.5-point underdog
W 24-21 vs North Carolina A&T #258 of 667
won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite
The series
Tennessee State leads the series 14-5
19 meetings since 1977 · Jackson State has won the last 3
- 2022 · neutral siteJackson State 16-3
- 2021Jackson State 38-16
- 2019Jackson State 49-44
- 2017 · neutral siteTennessee State 17-15
- 2016Tennessee State 40-26
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Tennessee State’s chances here.
Jackson State favored by 12.5 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
Jackson State by 12.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Tennessee State.
Spread: +15.5 → +12.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Tennessee State is worth −5.5 points (±12.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 0th percentile.
0% at home, 11% on the road against FBS opponents (0-2 home, 1-8 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 49 games — inside the ±8.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 329 miles to get here.