Grambling upsets Jackson State 45-38

Team pages: Jackson State · Grambling

Jackson State5-138
Grambling4-245Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Eddie Robinson Stadium, Grambling, La. · Crowd 15,434

Grambling beat Jackson State 45-38 as an 8.5-point underdog.

We had Jackson State favored. Grambling won.

Next: Jackson State beat Florida A&M 27-17, Sat Oct 17

Next: Grambling lost to Alabama A&M 61-31, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: 32-yd punt, Wilson returns it 32 (Q4, 2:00). Grambling went from 18% to 46% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Grambling a 24% chance, and the closing betting line (Grambling was a 8.5-point underdog) put it at 25%.

FinalGrambling 45-38 Jackson StateGrambling wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q434% at halfGramblingJackson StateLowest 11%Won45-3812−23−21Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q434% at halfGramblingLowest 11%Won45-38Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q466% at halfJackson StateGramblingHigh 89%Lost38-4512+23+21Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q466% at halfGramblingHigh 89%Lost38-45Scores

The four plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 9:19Pryor 3-yd TD run, Jackson State goes ahead 38-35Grambling 61% → 38% (−23)
  2. 2Q4 6:03FumbleMcclendon 15-yd run, fumblesGrambling 40% → 19% (−21)
  3. 3Q4 2:00Special teams32-yd punt, Wilson returns it 32Grambling 18% → 46% (+28)
  4. 4Q4 1:36Ford 1-yd TD run, Grambling goes ahead 42-38Grambling 46% → 71% (+25)

The four plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 9:19Pryor 3-yd TD run, Jackson State goes ahead 38-35Jackson State 39% → 62% (+23)
  2. 2Q4 6:03FumbleMcclendon 15-yd run, fumblesJackson State 60% → 81% (+21)
  3. 3Q4 2:00Special teams32-yd punt, Wilson returns it 32Jackson State 82% → 54% (−28)
  4. 4Q4 1:36Ford 1-yd TD run, Grambling goes ahead 42-38Jackson State 54% → 29% (−25)
Grambling’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Jackson State -8.5), at 33% for Grambling (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Grambling scored on 7 of its 14 drives; Jackson State on 5 of its 14.

Grambling’s drives are teal, Jackson State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Grambling: Punt, from 75 yards out to 47PuntJackson State: Touchdown, from 96 yards out to 0TouchdownGrambling: Interception, from 75 yards out to 69InterceptionJackson State: Punt, from 33 yards out to 53PuntGrambling: Fumble returned for a touchdown, from 86 yards out to 89Fumble TDGrambling: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownJackson State: Punt, from 82 yards out to 81PuntQ2Grambling: Turned over on downs, from 61 yards out to 53DownsJackson State: Touchdown, from 47 yards out to 0TouchdownGrambling: Touchdown, from 35 yards out to 0TouchdownJackson State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 86PuntGrambling: Punt, from 65 yards out to 58PuntJackson State: Punt, from 90 yards out to 83PuntGrambling: Touchdown, from 23 yards out to 0TouchdownJackson State: End of half, from 61 yards out to 61End of halfQ3Jackson State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 31Field goalGrambling: Touchdown, from 63 yards out to 0TouchdownJackson State: Interception, from 80 yards out to 47InterceptionGrambling: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Jackson State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownGrambling: Punt, from 64 yards out to 58PuntJackson State: Touchdown, from 85 yards out to 0TouchdownGrambling: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 5FumbleJackson State: Punt, from 95 yards out to 68PuntGrambling: Touchdown, from 32 yards out to 0TouchdownJackson State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 75InterceptionGrambling: Field goal, from 9 yards out to 7Field goalJackson State: End of game, from 83 yards out to 32End of game

From Jackson State’s side

Jackson State’s best moment: Pryor 3-yd TD run, Jackson State goes ahead 38-35 (Q4 9:19). It lifted Jackson State’s win chance by 23 points.

The winner fell to 9%.

Box score

Grambling 45, Jackson State 38

Grambling covered +8.5 by 15.5. The total, 83, went over 55.5.

Jackson State leaders

  • Passing Caron Tyler 6 of 10, 111 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Li'Darius Pryor 22 for 166 yds, 3 TD; Caron Tyler 8 for 67 yds
  • Receiving Nathan Rembert 4 for 101 yds; Jency Riley 3 for 57 yds, 1 TD

Grambling leaders

  • Passing Jacobe Robinson 17 of 21, 212 yds, 4 TD
  • Rushing D'Shaun Ford 14 for 71 yds, 1 TD; Jacobe Robinson 11 for 52 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Tyson George 8 for 93 yds, 1 TD; Nae'Saan Dickerson 4 for 59 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Jackson State · 5-0

Rated 110th in our preseason ratings, 123rd now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 31-28 vs Alabama A&M #149 of 668

won by 3 as a 10-point favorite

Jackson State won 31-28 vs Alabama A&M. Chance to win started at 81%, low 12%, high 97%.

W 35-17 vs Southern #222 of 668

won by 18 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 41-7 vs Tuskegee #335 of 668

Jackson State won 41-7 vs Tuskegee. Chance to win started at 49%, low 47%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Grambling · 3-2

Rated 172nd in our preseason ratings, 205th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 63-59 vs Alcorn State #194 of 668

won by 4 as a 6-point favorite

Grambling won 63-59 vs Alcorn State. Chance to win started at 75%, low under 1%, high better than 99%.

L 14-21 vs Prairie View A&M #141 of 668

lost by 7 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 7-63 @ TCU #53 of 668

lost by 56 as a 44.5-point underdog

Grambling lost 7-63 at TCU. Never had a real chance.

Week by week

Grambling

Wk 1: W 49-7 vs Clark Atlanta▲42Clark At…Wk 1: W 48-26 vs Central State▲22C. St.Wk 2: L 7-63 at TCU▼56TCUWk 4: L 14-21 vs Prairie View A&M▼7Prairie…Wk 5: W 63-59 vs Alcorn State▲4Alcorn S…
  • Wk 1Wvs Clark Atlanta49-7
  • Wk 1Wvs Central State48-26
  • Wk 2Lat TCU7-63
  • Wk 4Lvs Prairie View A&M14-21
  • Wk 5Wvs Alcorn State63-59

Jackson State

Wk 1: W 26-24 at Tennessee State▲2Tennesse…Wk 1: W 66-14 vs Edward Waters▲52Edward W…Wk 3: W 41-7 vs Tuskegee▲34TuskegeeWk 4: W 35-17 vs Southern▲18SouthernWk 5: W 31-28 vs Alabama A&M▲3Alabama…
  • Wk 1Wat Tennessee State26-24
  • Wk 1Wvs Edward Waters66-14
  • Wk 3Wvs Tuskegee41-7
  • Wk 4Wvs Southern35-17
  • Wk 5Wvs Alabama A&M31-28

Power rating by week

Jackson State is rated 5.0 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-6-10Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5GramblingJackson State

The series

Grambling leads the series 13-2

15 meetings since 1977 · Grambling has won the last 2

Grambling wonJackson State won1977: Grambling by 272007: Grambling by 102008: Grambling by 92009: Grambling by 102010: Grambling by 72011: Grambling by 32012: Jackson State by 362014: Grambling by 52015: Grambling by 322016: Grambling by 212017: Grambling by 152019: Grambling by 232022: Jackson State by 422024: Grambling by 212025: Grambling by 219772025
  • 2025 · neutral siteGrambling 26-24
  • 2024Grambling 41-20
  • 2022Jackson State 66-24
  • 2019Grambling 44-21
  • 2017Grambling 36-21

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Grambling’s chances here.

50-50Model 24% · Line 25%Jackson StateGrambling

Jackson State favored by 8.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Jackson State by 8.5, on the usual path until 2:00 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The total rose 1 point.

opened 54.5now 55.5

Total: 54.5 → 55.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +11.8 at home vs. away over 37 games — outside the ±8.7 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 148 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.