Grambling beats Alcorn State 63-59
Team pages: Alcorn State · Grambling
Grambling beat Alcorn State 63-59 after its win chance fell to 1%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 1% or less in about 1 of every 470 games since 2018.
How it swung
The turning point: Frye 11-yd TD pass to George, Grambling goes ahead 63-59 (Q4, 0:19). Grambling went from 63% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Grambling a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (Grambling was a 6-point favorite) put it at 69%.
Alcorn State · Q3 4:06
Grambling 63-59 Alcorn StateGrambling wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Alcorn State 59-63 GramblingAlcorn State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The four plays that swung it
- 1Q4 13:10Frye 5-yd TD run, cuts it to 45-42Grambling 26% → 49% (+23)
- 2Q4 10:52Tolbert 40-yd TD pass to Ebron, Alcorn State leads 52-42Grambling 44% → 16% (−28)
- 3Q4 2:00Frye 24-yd pass to BrideGrambling 42% → 63% (+21)
- 4Q4 0:19Frye 11-yd TD pass to George, Grambling goes ahead 63-59Grambling 63% → 100% (+37)
The four plays that swung it
- 1Q4 13:10Frye 5-yd TD run, cuts it to 45-42Alcorn State 74% → 51% (−23)
- 2Q4 10:52Tolbert 40-yd TD pass to Ebron, Alcorn State leads 52-42Alcorn State 56% → 84% (+28)
- 3Q4 2:00Frye 24-yd pass to BrideAlcorn State 58% → 37% (−21)
- 4Q4 0:19Frye 11-yd TD pass to George, Grambling goes ahead 63-59Alcorn State 37% → 0% (−37)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Grambling -6), at 75% for Grambling (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Grambling scored on 8 of its 14 drives; Alcorn State on 10 of its 16.
Grambling’s drives are teal, Alcorn State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Alcorn State’s side
Alcorn State’s best moment: Tolbert 40-yd TD pass to Ebron, Alcorn State leads 52-42 (Q4 10:52). It lifted Alcorn State’s win chance by 28 points.
The winner was given almost no chance at its low point.
Box score
Grambling 63, Alcorn State 59
Alcorn State covered +6 by 2. The total, 122, went over 55.5.
Alcorn State leaders
- Passing Jaylon Tolbert 18 of 31, 411 yds, 5 TD
- Rushing Fred Robertson 21 for 105 yds, 2 TD; Jaylon Tolbert 15 for 33 yds
- Receiving Damien Jones 4 for 140 yds, 2 TD; Jamarr Ebron 3 for 121 yds, 2 TD
Grambling leaders
- Passing Ashton Frye 11 of 17, 203 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Jamarion Parker 6 for 98 yds; Ashton Frye 12 for 61 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Jordan Bride 7 for 108 yds; Byron Eaton Jr. 4 for 97 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Alcorn State · 3-2
Rated 167th in our preseason ratings, 190th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 53-51 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff #233 of 668
won by 2 as an 8.5-point favorite
W 56-7 vs Miles #307 of 668
Last 4 games
Grambling · 2-2
Rated 172nd in our preseason ratings, 201st now.
2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 14-21 vs Prairie View A&M #141 of 668
lost by 7 as an 11.5-point underdog
W 48-26 vs Central State #384 of 668
W 49-7 vs Clark Atlanta #376 of 668
Week by week
Grambling
- Wk 1Wvs Clark Atlanta49-7
- Wk 1Wvs Central State48-26
- Wk 2Lat TCU7-63
- Wk 4Lvs Prairie View A&M14-21
Alcorn State
- Wk 1Wvs Miles56-7
- Wk 1Lat Southern Miss3-49
- Wk 2Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff53-51
- Wk 3Lat North Alabama20-38
- Wk 4Wvs Texas Southern43-40
Power rating by week
Alcorn State is rated 0.3 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Grambling leads the series 12-8
20 meetings since 1977 · Alcorn State has won the last 3
- 2025Alcorn State 27-16
- 2024Alcorn State 17-15
- 2023Alcorn State 25-24
- 2022Grambling 35-6
- 2021Alcorn State 24-20
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Grambling’s chances here.
Grambling favored by 6 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go
Grambling by 6, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Alcorn State.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: −7.5 → −6 · Total: 57.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +11.8 at home vs. away over 37 games — outside the ±8.7 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 103 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Grambling10th0-1
- Alcorn State1st2-0