Alcorn State beats Texas Southern 43-40 in overtime
Team pages: Texas Southern · Alcorn State
Alcorn State beat Texas Southern 43-40 in overtime. Share this game
We had Alcorn State favored. It won.
Next: Texas Southern lost to Florida Atlantic 66-10, Sat Oct 3
How it swung
The turning point: Robertson 1-yd TD run, Alcorn State goes ahead 43-40 (OT). Alcorn State went from 30% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Alcorn State a 72% chance, and the closing betting line (Alcorn State was a 3.5-point favorite) put it at 61%.
Down to 30% in overtime, Alcorn State came back to win.
Up to 70% in overtime, then Texas Southern lost it.
Alcorn State 43-40 Texas Southern
Alcorn State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Texas Southern 40-43 Alcorn StateTexas Southern lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The five plays that swung it
- 1Q4 4:37McCoy 5-yd TD run, two-point try good, ties it 34-34Alcorn State 89% → 63% (−26)
- 2Q4 0:00Arana 25-yd field goal, ties it 37-37Alcorn State 83% → 42% (−41)
- 3OTMcCoy sacked for a 1-yd lossAlcorn State 61% → 33% (−28)
- 4OTArana 48-yd field goal, Texas Southern goes ahead 40-37Alcorn State 33% → 58% (+25)
- 5OTRobertson 1-yd TD run, Alcorn State goes ahead 43-40Alcorn State 30% → 100% (+70)
The five plays that swung it
- 1Q4 4:37McCoy 5-yd TD run, two-point try good, ties it 34-34Texas Southern 11% → 37% (+26)
- 2Q4 0:00Arana 25-yd field goal, ties it 37-37Texas Southern 17% → 58% (+41)
- 3OTMcCoy sacked for a 1-yd lossTexas Southern 39% → 67% (+28)
- 4OTArana 48-yd field goal, Texas Southern goes ahead 40-37Texas Southern 67% → 42% (−25)
- 5OTRobertson 1-yd TD run, Alcorn State goes ahead 43-40Texas Southern 70% → 0% (−70)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Alcorn State -3.5), at 68% for Alcorn State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Alcorn State scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Texas Southern on 8 of its 13.
Alcorn State’s drives are teal, Texas Southern’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Texas Southern’s side
Texas Southern’s best moment: Arana 25-yd field goal, ties it 37-37 (Q4 0:00). It lifted Texas Southern’s win chance by 41 points.
The winner fell to 15%.
Box score
Alcorn State 43, Texas Southern 40
Texas Southern covered +3.5 by 0.5. The total, 83, went over 55.5.
Texas Southern leaders
- Passing Cam'Ron McCoy 20 of 31, 319 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Cam'Ron McCoy 13 for 86 yds, 2 TD; Athean Renfro 15 for 55 yds
- Receiving Daveon Walker 7 for 110 yds, 1 TD; Fatu Mukuba 2 for 91 yds, 1 TD
Alcorn State leaders
- Passing Jaylon Tolbert 26 of 41, 332 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Fred Robertson 29 for 105 yds, 3 TD; Jaylon Tolbert 12 for 79 yds
- Receiving Fred Robertson 5 for 70 yds, 1 TD; Armon Wright 5 for 61 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Texas Southern · 1-2
Rated 209th in our preseason ratings, 214th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 12-point win over North Carolina Central as a 10.5-point underdog.
L 14-52 @ Prairie View A&M #109 of 668
lost by 38 as a 10.5-point underdog
W 42-30 vs North Carolina Central #167 of 668
won by 12 as a 10.5-point underdog
Last 4 games
Alcorn State · 2-2
Rated 167th in our preseason ratings, 189th now.
2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 53-51 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff #233 of 668
won by 2 as an 8.5-point favorite
W 56-7 vs Miles #307 of 668
Week by week
Alcorn State
- Wk 1Wvs Miles56-7
- Wk 1Lat Southern Miss3-49
- Wk 2Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff53-51
- Wk 3Lat North Alabama20-38
Texas Southern
- Wk 1Wvs North Carolina Central42-30
- Wk 1Lat Prairie View A&M14-52
- Wk 2Lat UTEP10-51
Power rating by week
Alcorn State is rated 1.1 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Alcorn State leads the series 11-7
18 meetings since 1977 · Alcorn State has won the last 2
- 2025Alcorn State 33-14
- 2024Alcorn State 42-21
- 2023Texas Southern 44-10
- 2022Texas Southern 34-27
- 2021Alcorn State 44-27
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Alcorn State’s chances here.
Alcorn State favored by 3.5 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go
Alcorn State by 3.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Alcorn State.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: −2.5 → −3.5 · Total: 58.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 47 games — inside the ±8.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 290 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Alcorn State1st1-0
- Texas Southern11th0-1