North Alabama beats Alcorn State 38-20

Team pages: Alcorn State · North Alabama

Alcorn State2-220
North Alabama2-238Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Braly Municipal Stadium, Florence, Ala. · Crowd 11,830ESPN+

North Alabama beat Alcorn State 38-20.

We had North Alabama favored. It won.

Next: Alcorn State beat Texas Southern 43-40, Sat Sep 26

Next: North Alabama beat Western Illinois 23-20, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Alabama a 60% chance, and the closing betting line (North Alabama was a 13.5-point favorite) put it at 86%.

Favored the whole way: North Alabama never fell below 82%.

Alcorn State never had better than an 18% chance.

FinalNorth Alabama 38-20 Alcorn StateNorth Alabama wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q489% at halfNorth AlabamaWon38-201+11Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q489% at halfNorth AlabamaWon38-201Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q411% at halfNorth AlabamaLost20-381−11Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q411% at halfNorth AlabamaLost20-381Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 5:00Johnson 75-yd TD run, North Alabama leads 21-7North Alabama 85% → 96% (+11)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 5:00Johnson 75-yd TD run, North Alabama leads 21-7Alcorn State 15% → 4% (−11)
North Alabama’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (North Alabama -13.5), at 87% for North Alabama (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

North Alabama scored on 6 of its 14 drives; Alcorn State on 4 of its 13.

North Alabama’s drives are teal, Alcorn State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1North Alabama: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Interception, from 71 yards out to 71InterceptionNorth Alabama: Touchdown, from 19 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 82PuntNorth Alabama: Turned over on downs, from 60 yards out to 58DownsAlcorn State: Turned over on downs, from 42 yards out to 28DownsNorth Alabama: Punt, from 72 yards out to 69PuntAlcorn State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 60PuntNorth Alabama: Punt, from 72 yards out to 65PuntQ2Alcorn State: Punt, from 97 yards out to 80PuntNorth Alabama: Punt, from 81 yards out to 53PuntAlcorn State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 72PuntNorth Alabama: Punt, from 75 yards out to 61PuntAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Alabama: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Alabama: End of half, from 75 yards out to 2End of halfQ3Alcorn State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 8Field goalNorth Alabama: Punt, from 72 yards out to 63PuntAlcorn State: Punt, from 78 yards out to 45PuntNorth Alabama: Field goal, from 87 yards out to 13Field goalAlcorn State: Punt, from 74 yards out to 41PuntQ4North Alabama: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Field goal, from 52 yards out to 15Field goalNorth Alabama: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Turned over on downs, from 60 yards out to 47DownsNorth Alabama: End of game, from 53 yards out to 55End of game

From Alcorn State’s side

Alcorn State’s best moment: Robertson 22-yd TD run, cuts it to 14-7 (Q2 5:21). It lifted Alcorn State’s win chance by 10 points.

Box score

North Alabama 38, Alcorn State 20

North Alabama covered −13.5 by 4.5. The total, 58, went over 52.5.

Alcorn State leaders

  • Passing Jaylon Tolbert 22 of 44, 270 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Fred Robertson 15 for 71 yds, 1 TD; Ernest Temple 7 for 26 yds
  • Receiving Elijah Griffin 4 for 87 yds; Jamarr Ebron 4 for 65 yds

North Alabama leaders

  • Passing Destin Wade 15 of 30, 296 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Xavier Johnson 1 for 75 yds, 1 TD; Chris McMillian 14 for 39 yds
  • Receiving Xavier Johnson 5 for 86 yds; Snap Reed 6 for 85 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Alcorn State · 2-1

Rated 167th in our preseason ratings, 173rd now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 53-51 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff #233 of 668

won by 2 as an 8.5-point favorite

L 3-49 @ Southern Miss #57 of 668

lost by 46 as a 20.5-point underdog

Alcorn State lost 3-49 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 12%.

W 56-7 vs Miles #307 of 668

Last three games

North Alabama · 1-2

Rated 207th in our preseason ratings, 188th now, up 19 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 25-30 @ SE Louisiana #153 of 668

lost by 5 as a 6.5-point underdog

North Alabama lost 25-30 at SE Louisiana. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 68%.

L 14-31 @ Arkansas #145 of 668

lost by 17 as a 40.5-point underdog

North Alabama lost 14-31 at Arkansas. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

W 22-10 vs Samford #236 of 668

won by 12 as a 7-point favorite

North Alabama won 22-10 vs Samford. Chance to win started at 85%, low 56%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

North Alabama

Wk 1: W 22-10 vs Samford▲12SamfordWk 1: L 14-31 at Arkansas▼17ArkansasWk 2: L 25-30 at SE Louisiana▼5SE Louisiana
  • Wk 1Wvs Samford22-10
  • Wk 1Lat Arkansas14-31
  • Wk 2Lat SE Louisiana25-30

Alcorn State

Wk 1: W 56-7 vs Miles▲49MilesWk 1: L 3-49 at Southern Miss▼46Southern MissWk 2: W 53-51 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff▲2Arkansas-Pine B…
  • Wk 1Wvs Miles56-7
  • Wk 1Lat Southern Miss3-49
  • Wk 2Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff53-51

Power rating by week

Alcorn State is rated 0.7 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-7.0-8.4-9.9Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2North AlabamaAlcorn State

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on North Alabama’s chances here.

50-50Model · 60%Line · 86%Alcorn StateNorth Alabama

North Alabama favored by 13.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

North Alabama by 13.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

North Alabama is worth +11.7 points (±4.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-2 home, 0-13 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.7 at home vs. away over 43 games — inside the ±9.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 285 miles to get here.

Where next