Alabama A&M beats Florida A&M 40-21

Alabama A&M4-140
Florida A&M1-421Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Bragg Memorial Stadium, Tallahassee, Fla. · Crowd 11,380

Alabama A&M beat Florida A&M 40-21.

We had Florida A&M favored. Alabama A&M won.

How it swung

The turning point: Brown 13-yd TD pass to Bean, Alabama A&M goes ahead 14-7 (Q1, 1:02). Alabama A&M went from 59% to 76% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Alabama A&M a 60% chance, and the closing betting line (Alabama A&M was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

Alabama A&M won by 19, after dipping to 29% in the first quarter.

Up to 71% in the first quarter, then Florida A&M lost it.

21 unansweredAlabama A&M · Q1 1:02
FinalAlabama A&M 40-21 Florida A&MAlabama A&M wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q482% at halfAlabama A&MLowest 29%Won40-2112+17−16Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q482% at halfAlabama A&MLowest 29%Won40-2112Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q418% at halfAlabama A&MLowest 0%High 71%Lost21-4012−17+16Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q418% at halfAlabama A&MLowest 0%High 71%Lost21-4012Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 1:02Brown 13-yd TD pass to Bean, Alabama A&M goes ahead 14-7Alabama A&M 59% → 76% (+17)
  2. 2Q3 5:19Parker 1-yd TD pass to Wright, two-point try good, cuts it to 23-21Alabama A&M 77% → 61% (−16)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 1:02Brown 13-yd TD pass to Bean, Alabama A&M goes ahead 14-7Florida A&M 41% → 24% (−17)
  2. 2Q3 5:19Parker 1-yd TD pass to Wright, two-point try good, cuts it to 23-21Florida A&M 23% → 39% (+16)
Alabama A&M’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Alabama A&M -3), at 49% for Alabama A&M (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Alabama A&M scored on 6 of its 16 drives; Florida A&M on 3 of its 16.

Alabama A&M’s drives are teal, Florida A&M’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Florida A&M: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama A&M: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida A&M: Punt, from 68 yards out to 60PuntAlabama A&M: Punt, from 85 yards out to 77PuntFlorida A&M: Fumble, from 68 yards out to 48FumbleAlabama A&M: Touchdown, from 52 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida A&M: Punt, from 68 yards out to 62PuntQ2Alabama A&M: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida A&M: Punt, from 68 yards out to 63PuntAlabama A&M: Punt, from 76 yards out to 56PuntFlorida A&M: Punt, from 86 yards out to 67PuntAlabama A&M: Interception, from 61 yards out to 61InterceptionFlorida A&M: Touchdown, from 18 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama A&M: Punt, from 78 yards out to 62PuntFlorida A&M: Punt, from 84 yards out to 81PuntAlabama A&M: Missed field goal, from 65 yards out to 19Missed FGFlorida A&M: End of half, from 80 yards out to 81End of halfQ3Alabama A&M: Punt, from 73 yards out to 47PuntFlorida A&M: Punt, from 86 yards out to 90PuntAlabama A&M: Punt, from 68 yards out to 65PuntFlorida A&M: Touchdown, from 56 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama A&M: Fumble, from 72 yards out to 2FumbleFlorida A&M: Punt, from 80 yards out to 86PuntAlabama A&M: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Florida A&M: Interception, from 74 yards out to 60InterceptionAlabama A&M: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida A&M: Interception, from 71 yards out to 78InterceptionAlabama A&M: Field goal, from 70 yards out to 13Field goalFlorida A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80PuntAlabama A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 51PuntFlorida A&M: Fumble, from 82 yards out to 85FumbleAlabama A&M: End of game, from 15 yards out to 16End of game

From Florida A&M’s side

Florida A&M’s best moment: Parker 1-yd TD pass to Wright, two-point try good, cuts it to 23-21 (Q3 5:19). It lifted Florida A&M’s win chance by 16 points.

Box score

Alabama A&M 40, Florida A&M 21

Alabama A&M covered −3 by 16. The total, 61, went over 51.5.

Alabama A&M leaders

  • Passing Cornelious Brown 18 of 26, 198 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Byron Perrilliat 16 for 223 yds, 2 TD; Kolton Nero 9 for 32 yds
  • Receiving Jaylan Bean 5 for 93 yds, 2 TD; Devin Herring 3 for 86 yds

Florida A&M leaders

  • Passing Armond Parker 16 of 26, 168 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Chase Gillespie 9 for 21 yds; Jamal Hailey 10 for 17 yds
  • Receiving Kieren Jackson 6 for 89 yds, 1 TD; Corey Petty 1 for 21 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Alabama A&M · 3-1

Rated 189th in our preseason ratings, 186th now.

3-1 in its last 4, including a 27-point win over Tennessee State as a 3.5-point underdog.

Last 4 games

Florida A&M · 1-3

Rated 192nd in our preseason ratings, 216th now.

1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 26-29 vs Tennessee State #208 of 668

lost by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Florida A&M lost 26-29 vs Tennessee State. Chance to win started at 71%, low under 1%, high 84%.

L 7-77 @ MiamiTop 25 #7 of 668

lost by 70 as a 59.5-point underdog

Florida A&M lost 7-77 at Miami. Never had a real chance.

L 13-31 vs South Carolina State #134 of 668

lost by 18 as a 19.5-point underdog

Florida A&M lost 13-31 vs South Carolina State. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 20%.

W 20-7 vs Albany State #271 of 668

Florida A&M won 20-7 vs Albany State. Chance to win started at 59%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Florida A&M

Wk 1: W 20-7 vs Albany State▲13Albany StateWk 1: L 13-31 vs South Carolina State▼18S. Carolina…Wk 2: L 7-77 at Miami▼70MiamiWk 3: L 26-29 vs Tennessee State▼3Tennessee S…
  • Wk 1Wvs Albany State20-7
  • Wk 1Lvs South Carolina State13-31
  • Wk 2Lat Miami7-77
  • Wk 3Lvs Tennessee State26-29

Alabama A&M

Wk 1: L 24-31 at Howard▼7HowardWk 1: W 38-23 vs Miles▲15MilesWk 2: W 30-3 vs Tennessee State▲27Tennessee S…Wk 3: W 45-3 vs Bowie State▲42Bowie State
  • Wk 1Lat Howard24-31
  • Wk 1Wvs Miles38-23
  • Wk 2Wvs Tennessee State30-3
  • Wk 3Wvs Bowie State45-3

Power rating by week

Alabama A&M is rated 1.3 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-7.6-8.7-9.9Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Florida A&MAlabama A&M

The series

Florida A&M leads the series 5-0

5 meetings since 2021 · Florida A&M has won the last 5

  • 2025Florida A&M 26-23
  • 2024Florida A&M 28-20
  • 2023Florida A&M 42-28
  • 2022Florida A&M 38-25
  • 2021Florida A&M 35-31

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Florida A&M’s chances here.

50-50Model 40% · Line 40%Alabama A&MFlorida A&M

Alabama A&M favored by 3 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Alabama A&M by 3, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4.5 points toward Alabama A&M.

opened −1.5now +3

The total rose 2 points.

opened 49.5now 51.5

Spread: −1.5 → +3 · Total: 49.5 → 51.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-9 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.3 at home vs. away over 43 games — inside the ±7.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 329 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.