Louisiana Tech at Troy
Troy (4‑4) hosts Louisiana Tech (6‑2). The market has Louisiana Tech favored by 4.5. Troy’s offense is at the 12th percentile on efficiency; Louisiana Tech’s defense is at the 91st.
How they got here
Last three games
Louisiana Tech · 6-2
Rated 88th in our preseason ratings, 46th now, up 42 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last three games
Troy · 4-4
Rated 113th in our preseason ratings, 119th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over James Madison as a 17.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Troy’s passing EPA against Louisiana Tech, 83 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Troy’s EPA/play against Louisiana Tech’s defense
Troy offense, 12th percentile · Louisiana Tech defense, 91st
Troy’s passing EPA against Louisiana Tech’s defense
Troy offense, 8th percentile · Louisiana Tech defense, 91st
Louisiana Tech’s explosive plays against Troy’s defense
Louisiana Tech offense, 72nd percentile · Troy defense, 35th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Louisiana Tech
The chip · vs the national mediaFans are tired of their program being treated as a footnote — they'll remind anyone who'll listen that the sport's most famous quarterback came from Ruston, and that the Bulldogs have a national title most of their peers can only dream about.
What this game touches
Carrying a big-time pedigree at a small-time station. Louisiana Tech sent Terry Bradshaw to four Super Bowl wins and won a national title in its division — yet lives as a quiet Conference USA stalwart, its biggest names long gone to bigger stages. The ache is gentle but real: a program with blue-blood roots stuck on the sport's back roads.
Troy
The chip · vs the blue bloodsTroy's whole self-image is built on one thing: walking into an SEC stadium as a heavy underdog and winning. Fans believe the big Alabama programs and the national media see Troy as a paycheck opponent, and there is nothing they enjoy more than proving otherwise on a Saturday in Baton Rouge or Athens.
What this game touches
One step short in 2025. Gerad Parker engineered a four-win improvement and a Sun Belt West title in 2025, then Troy lost the conference championship to James Madison 31-14 and dropped its bowl to Jacksonville State 17-13 — a strong year that stopped just short of the trophy Troy measures itself by.
Best players
Louisiana Tech
- Alonzo Jackson Jr. (LB) · 58 tackles
- Jadon Mayfield (LB) · 52 tackles
- Jalen Mickens (WR) · 618 receiving yards
Troy
- Justin Powe (S) · 54 tackles
- Jordan Perry (LB) · 46 tackles
- TJ Thompson (LB) · 42 tackles
What to watch
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward Troy since opening (+6.5 → +4.5).
The total has moved up 2.0 points since opening (45.5 → 47.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Troy fans are in a better mood than Louisiana Tech fans (96th percentile vs 71st among FBS fanbases), even with Louisiana Tech favored.
- Model · 50%
- Line · 36%
- Troy fans · 96th
- Louisiana Tech fans · 71st
Louisiana Tech favored by 4.5 · Total 47.5
Louisiana Tech by 4.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Louisiana Tech’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Veterans Memorial Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, noon Saturdays 81
Louisiana Tech at Troy · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 4 pm ET · Veterans Memorial Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Veterans Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 81, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 96.
- noon: 81, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Troy is worth +2.6 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 21st percentile.
61% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (27-17 home, 26-27 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.1 at home vs. away over 106 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 395 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Troy
- Wk 4Lat Utah State10-21
- Wk 6Wvs Southern Miss55-34
- Wk 7Lat Louisiana6-33
- Wk 8Lvs UL Monroe14-21
- Wk 9Wat James Madison24-21
Louisiana Tech
- Wk 5Wvs Army31-29
- Wk 6Wvs Louisiana32-31
- Wk 7Wat UL Monroe24-0
- Wk 8Wvs Old Dominion26-0
- Wk 9Wat South Alabama35-20
Power rating by week
Louisiana Tech is rated 7.2 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Troy.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: +6.5 → +4.5 · Total: 45.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Troy9th2-2
- Louisiana Tech1st4-0