Troy

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Syracuse faces skepticism over its 2026 season outlookour readMissouri vs Troy kickoff time, TV details announcedour readThe South Alabama rivalry

Sun Belt · Gerad Parker, year 3 (14-14) · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 30,000 · 25,495 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#107 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #106 (-11.4) · FPI #104
The marketMissouri by 26.5at Missouri · our model 15% Troy · a number, not a pick

LastW 34–17 vs Alabama State · Sat Sep 12 · Jaheim Merriweather 127 rush yds, 3 TD, 3 rec yds

Nextat Missouri · Sat Sep 19 · 7 pm ET · Memorial Stadium · Missouri by 26.5 · series 1-3, lost the last 2 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
29.0
Pts allowed/game
19.0
Total yards/gm#87 / 138 · 37th pct
384.5
Rush yards/gmT-#46 / 138 · 67th pct
201.5
Pass yards/gm#103 / 138 · 26th pct
183.0
Yards allowed/gm#52 / 138 · 63rd pct
297.0
Rush yds allowed/gm#25 / 138 · 82nd pct
77.0
SacksT-#11 / 138 · 89th pct
7
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down convT-#119 / 138 · 14th pct
31.0%
All 86 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
769384.5/gm5.74/play#87 / 138 · 37th pct#51 / 70 · 28th pct#9 / 14 · 39th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
594297.0/gm4.64/play#52 / 138 · 63rd pct#41 / 70 · 42nd pct#4 / 14 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
403201.5/gm3.01/playT-#46 / 138 · 67th pct#26 / 70 · 64th pct#5 / 14 · 68th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
15477.0/gm1.20/play#25 / 138 · 82nd pct#22 / 70 · 69th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
8140.5/gmT-#44 / 138 · 67th pct#23 / 70 · 68th pct#6 / 14 · 61st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
5829.0/gmT-#25 / 138 · 81st pctT-#19 / 70 · 72nd pct#3 / 14 · 82nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#77 / 138 · 34th pctT-#45 / 70 · 29th pctT-#9 / 14 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#18 / 70 · 64th pctT-#3 / 14 · 68th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
366183.0/gm2.73/play#103 / 138 · 26th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
440220.0/gm3.44/play#88 / 138 · 37th pct#50 / 70 · 29th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
5326.5/gmT-#88 / 138 · 36th pctT-#52 / 70 · 25th pct#7 / 14 · 54th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7035.0/gmT-#105 / 138 · 24th pctT-#53 / 70 · 24th pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
2613.0/gmT-#119 / 138 · 13th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pctT-#12 / 14 · 14th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4321.5/gmT-#106 / 138 · 22nd pctT-#57 / 70 · 17th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
42.0/gmT-#48 / 138 · 57th pctT-#33 / 70 · 46th pctT-#3 / 14 · 79th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#103 / 138 · 19th pctT-#62 / 70 · 9th pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating#80 / 115 · 31st pct#48 / 60 · 21st pct#9 / 13 · 35th pct#10 / 13 · 31st pct
128.2128.2
Interceptions thrown
Team
00.0/gmT-#92 / 138 · 17th pctT-#42 / 70 · 21st pctT-#9 / 14 · 21st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 70 · 64th pctT-#2 / 14 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
73.5/gmT-#11 / 138 · 89th pctT-#7 / 70 · 88th pctT-#2 / 14 · 86th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#101 / 138 · 20th pctT-#56 / 70 · 14th pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
2110.5/gmT-#5 / 138 · 96th pct#3 / 70 · 96th pctT-#3 / 14 · 79th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
105.0/gmT-#66 / 138 · 47th pctT-#42 / 70 · 37th pctT-#6 / 14 · 57th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
3718.5/gmT-#102 / 138 · 25th pctT-#59 / 70 · 15th pct#10 / 14 · 32nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3718.5/gmT-#73 / 138 · 45th pctT-#48 / 70 · 29th pctT-#8 / 14 · 43rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
94.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#50 / 70 · 24th pctT-#6 / 14 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
105.0/gmT-#66 / 138 · 48th pctT-#42 / 70 · 35th pct#5 / 14 · 68th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2914.5/gmT-#34 / 138 · 72nd pctT-#13 / 70 · 78th pct#3 / 14 · 82nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2814.0/gmT-#62 / 138 · 50th pctT-#32 / 70 · 49th pctT-#5 / 14 · 57th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
31.5/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#12 / 70 · 72nd pctT-#1 / 14 · 89th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 91st pctT-#1 / 70 · 89th pctT-#1 / 14 · 89th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
52.5/gmT-#27 / 138 · 74th pctT-#13 / 70 · 74th pct#3 / 14 · 82nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#54 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#30 / 70 · 49th pctT-#8 / 14 · 39th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
62:0431:02/gm#66 / 138 · 53rd pct#32 / 70 · 55th pct#6 / 14 · 61st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
57:5628:58/gm#57 / 138 · 59th pct#32 / 70 · 55th pct#6 / 14 · 61st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.33 EPA/play9226 / 5151.03667.24
#36 FBS		0137.137247.48.9
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
-0.03 EPA/play—2261375.3025——
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+1.26 EPA/play827167
#49 FBS		23.92
#24 FBS		73

2026 stat leaders · Troy

through 2 games

TK Keyes leads Troy with 167 receiving yards through 2 games.

1. TK Keyes WR 167 receiving yards
2. TJ Thompson LB 11 tackles
3. Jaheim Merriweather RB 149 rushing yards
4. Will Crowder QB 366 passing yards
5. Gavin Griffin RB 137 rushing yards
How They Play · 2025

Troy fields a struggling offense behind a strong defense.

Offense
16th pct EPA/play
Defense
64th pct EPA allowed

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Troy · 2025

Troy reads strongest in passing epa allowed (top 26%) and success rate allowed (top 34%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Troy sits at the 9th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.07
16th
Success Rate +0.37
14th
Explosive Plays +1.28
59th
Rushing EPA -0.02
10th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.11
64th
Success Rate Allowed +0.39
67th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.28
42nd
Passing EPA Allowed +0.16
75th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.18
23rd
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.07
57th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 14 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Troy · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Troy is worth +2.1 points more at home than on the road.

Bottom third of FBS, 18th percentile of 133 programs

62% at home, 51% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (26–16 home, 25–24 away). Interval ±3.9.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Troy has beaten the number by −5.8 more at home than away over 76 games — inside the ±5.9 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) seats 30,000 and has averaged 83% full (24,986, 28 games reported). Visitors cover a median 377 miles to get here since 2018 — 62nd-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 12% of the 2026 roster (12 of 99 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 51 home games since 2018.

Home26–16Away25–24Edge+2.1 ±3.9Visitor trip377 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

Troy's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 63rd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 85th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 63rd pctileCompetitive snap…Worst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Troy hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

22nd percentile success on standard downs, 59th on passing downs — a 37-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantTroyWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Troy’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Defense: co-Nathan Burton / Dontae Wright (2024–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 43% → 2026: 35% · 9-pt range · #117 of 203 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 33% → 2026: 53% · 21-pt range · #36 of 200 · more than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 47% → 2025: 51% · 5-pt range · #184 of 189 · less than most
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Troy

CFB Zeitgeist

#107

-4.1

SP+

#106

-11.4

FPI

#104

-8.8

Elo

#83

1416

The national models put Troy between 83rd and 106th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is more skeptical, at 107th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Troy

Reads like

ArizonaBig 12Same tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizona StateBig 12Same tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArkansasSECSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up front

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

Historical echoPrograms whose arc bent the same way -- then what happened.

Historical echo

Troy’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.

Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.

Missouri 1940–1945
fell back
San José State 1974–1979
held the gain
Western Michigan 2014–2019
held the gain
Stanford 1990–1995
fell back

An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

74°F average kickoff temp; 8% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.

Based on 74 home games with weather data.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site