Next game: vs Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech’s best edge on Troy is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Troy offense against Louisiana Tech defense
Louisiana Tech offense against Troy defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.10 EPA/play | 9 | 7 | 102 / 183 | 55.7 | 1162 | 6.3 | 9 | 5 | 119.8 | 39 | 35.6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Starter — 183 pass attempts, 51 carries and 1 catch in 7 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Crowder extends plays on the move until something opens up. Hollins is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage21.8% 51th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %56.1% bottom 9th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Will Crowder's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| -0.34 EPA/play | 10 | 4 | 23 / 46 | 50 | 252 | 5.5 | 1 | 0 | 103.2 | 30 | 27.6 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.12 EPA/play | — | 8 | 98 | 436 | 4.4 | 3 | 39 | 14.3 | 10.2 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 98 carries and 6 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2026 class View Gavin Griffin's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.09 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 71 | 386 | 5.4 | 5 | 69 | 22.5 | 15.5 | |
Yards by week → Balanced back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 71 carries and 7 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Merriweather does a little of everything without one standout trait. Phillips is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry5.7 65th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception4.6 bottom 14th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaheim Merriweather's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.01 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 75 | 382 | 5.1 | 1 | 68 | 13.5 | 12.2 | |
Yards by week → Balanced back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 75 carries and 12 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Lovett does a little of everything without one standout trait. Phillips is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry5.4 52th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate1.3% bottom 12th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordan Lovett's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.54 EPA/play | 8 | 5 | 13 | 282 | 21.7 | 3 | 76 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR Keyes beats you over the top. Jones-Thomas is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception17.5 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate23.1% 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View TK Keyes's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.13 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 16 | 252 | 15.8 | 0 | 37 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR White moves the chains on third down. Jones-Thomas is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception16.0 76th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.1 bottom 3th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Noreel White's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.00 EPA/play | 17 | 8 | 18 | 209 | 11.6 | 0 | 45 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Petty moves the chains on third down. Jones-Thomas is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception11.5 bottom 29th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.0 bottom 6th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jace Petty's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.47 EPA/play | 18 | 5 | 16 | 174 | 10.9 | 2 | 55 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2026 class View Howard Kinchen's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.01 EPA/play | 15 | 5 | 10 | 116 | 11.6 | 1 | 32 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.26 EPA/play | 5 | 6 | 12 | 112 | 9.3 | 0 | 14 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Dortch moves the chains on third down. Jones-Thomas is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception9.5 bottom 13th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Marquez Dortch's full player page | ||||||||
| +1.30 EPA/play | 85 | 3 | 5 | 54 | 10.8 | 1 | 19 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 11 | 7 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 19 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ty Clemons's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 25 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Kavion Henderson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | — | 6 | 13 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 4 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate3.8% bottom 16th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kam Curry's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 93 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight313 lb 85th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View RaKeem Davis's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 95 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight306 lb 77th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Miquon Merriweather's full player page | |||||||
| 98 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2.5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 41 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 18 | 7 | 46 | 18 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 46 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jordan Perry's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 4 | 8 | 42 | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 42 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume42 60th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View TJ Thompson's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 3 | 8 | 30 | 9 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.0% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate3.3% bottom 20th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Doug Nelson's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 2 | 7 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume21 bottom 17th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Bryce Steele's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 44 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.2% 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Luke Hodge's full player page | |||||||||
| 20 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 6 | 8 | 54 | 3 | 3 #16 FBS | 2.5 | 0 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — 54 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% bottom 38th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Justin Powe's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 22 | 8 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 6.5 | 6 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 34 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate14.7% 82th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Donnie Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 9 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 28 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2026 class View Jamarion Keyes's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 12 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 3.5 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate13.0% bottom 48th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Shemar Welch's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 1 | 8 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Press cornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jabari Strait's full player page | |||||||
| 8 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 29 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 14 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 33 | 6 | 7/12 | 58.3 | 17/18 | 38 | 47 |
| 38 | 2 | 1/3 | 33.3 | 5/5 | 8 | 27 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 28 | 8 | 40 | 1796 | 44.9 | 73 | 14 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.01 EPA/play | 15 | 5 | 5 | 84 | 16.8 | 0 | 24 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · -0.13 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 | 26 |
Biggest plays from Troy’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Troy’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q1, 1:24 · Troy tiedTroy turns it overTroy at Utah State, week 4Q1, 1:24 · Troy 7, Utah State 7▼19%Troy’s chance to win, 44% to 25%▼19%Troy’s chance to win, 44% to 25%J.Lovett rush middle for 15 yards loss to the USU50 fumbled by J.Lovett at USU35 recovered by TROY G.Crowder at USU50, End Of Play, TURNOVER ON DOWNS▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football- Q2, 0:25 · Troy up 3D'Angelo Mayes intercepts Will Crowder and returns it 30 yardsTroy at Utah State, week 4Q2, 0:25 · Troy 10, Utah State 7▼19%Troy’s chance to win, 61% to 42%▼19%Troy’s chance to win, 61% to 42%G.Crowder pass intercepted by D.Mayes at USU15 D.Mayes return 30 yards to the USU45 (G.Griffin), out of bounds▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 11:02 · Utah State down 3, takes the leadGrady Brosterhous finds Eli Wood for a 5-yard touchdownTroy at Utah State, week 4Q3, 11:02 · Utah State 14, Troy 10Go-ahead score for Utah State in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Utah State in the third quarterG.Brosterhous pass complete short right to E.Wood caught at TROY00, for 5 yards to the TROY00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q1, 13:46 · Utah State tiedGrady Brosterhous finds Javon Robinson for a 57-yard touchdownTroy at Utah State, week 4Q1, 13:46 · Utah State 7, Troy 05757-yard touchdown pass5757-yard touchdown pass57-yard touchdown passG.Brosterhous pass complete short right to J.Robinson caught at TROY50, for 57 yards to the TROY00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
Q1, 7:47 · Sam Houston tiedLandyn Locke finds Grady O'Neill for a 14-yard touchdownSam Houston at Troy, week 1Q1, 7:47 · Sam Houston 7, Troy 0Sam Houston opened the scoringSam Houston opened the scoringL.Locke pass complete short middle to G.O'Neill caught at TROY02, for 14 yards to the TROY00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Sun Belt Conference
Q3, 6:11 · James Madison tiedJustin Powe intercepts Camden ColemanTroy at James Madison, week 9Q3, 6:11 · James Madison 21, Troy 21Justin Powe's third interception of the gameJustin Powe's third interception of the gameC.Coleman pass intercepted by J.Powe at TRO38, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Troy lost to UL Monroe after being 99% to win; the closest win was at James Madison, down to 4%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Troy during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Troy
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · TroyJustin Powe leads Troy with 54 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+16 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Troy fields a struggling offense behind a solid defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Troy reads strongest in red-zone defense (top 25%) and passing EPA allowed (top 28%); the crux lives in passing EPA, where Troy sits at the 8th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Troy is worth +2.6 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 21st percentile of 133 programs
61% at home, 49% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (27-17 home, 26-27 away). Interval ±3.8.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Troy has beaten the number by −4.1 more at home than away over 106 games. That is inside the ±5.8 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) seats 30,000 and has averaged 83% full (24,843, 30 games reported). Visitors cover a median 377 miles to get here since 2018 — 59th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 12% of the 2026 roster (12 of 99 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 53 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downPeyton Higgins is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- UnderdogPeyton Higgins produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- UnderdogRara Thomas produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
- UnderdogTray Taylor produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Deep threatEthan Conner is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatPeyton Higgins is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Gavin Griffin and Jordan Lovett split the carries (97/170 vs 73/170) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jordan Lovett owns the receiving work.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Troy actually scores
8th percentile quality, 92nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Troy’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 17th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 24th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Troy hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
39th percentile success on standard downs, 15th on passing downs — a 24-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Troy by half
1st-half offense ranks 24th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 19th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Troy’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.01; 11th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.01. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.18 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Troy’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Troy’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.7% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 189-play sample) — mid-pack, 23 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Troy’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.4% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 188-play sample) — mid-pack, 71 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 75% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~48% league rate.
6 of 8 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 22% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
7 interceptions of 32 disrupted passes (25 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Losing the penalty battle: 55 penalties committed vs. 51 drawn on opponents, a 131-yard deficit.
546 penalty yards committed vs. 415 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Troy
Most similar programs · TroyReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Troy’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL), Troy, AL
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 61°, between 49° and 72° in about 7 in 10 games (31 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 66°, and 8 in 10 ran between 48° and 81° (58 of 61 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.