CFB Zeitgeist Score
69
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 80th percentile.
TJ Harden
Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22
TJ Harden is a cornerstone for SMU — measured against the line he joined.
787RUSH YDS9RUSH TD171CARRIES
PRODUCES ABOVE PERCEPTION · PCTL GAP
+21
perception vs production percentile · 2025
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
2026 Outlook
Returning to SMU for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · SMU
Returning around him
- 50% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 1 SMU player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -11 net (14 in / 25 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
SMU · Last season: 9-4 (AP #25) · Talent rank #25 · 2026 recruiting class #31
RB · SMU · ACC
TJ Harden
- 4
- #27
- 6-2 | 220 lb
- Los Angeles, CA
Heisman Heat
#614
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2022–2025+142%
Up 142% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8611 | No. 964 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (787).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8611
#964 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on TJ Harden
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about TJ Harden
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 13g
787Rush yards
171Carries
9Rush TDs
Per game
60.5Rush yards
13Carries
1Rush TDs
Final
787Rush yards
171Carries
9Rush TDs
✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 787.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
TJ Harden's story is about how role and output meet each other. For SMU, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
171 94th
YDS
787 91st
YPC
4.6 51st
TD
9 94th
Receiving
REC
19 86th
YDS
99 69th
YPR
5.2 28th
TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 42-13vs East Texas A&M | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 2 | L 45-48vs Baylor | 19 | 115 | 6.1 | 3 | 40 | 3 rushing TDs |
| Wk 3 | W 28-10@ Missouri State | 15 | 96 | 6.4 | 2 | 37 | |
| Wk 4 | L 24-35@ TCU | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 6 | W 31-18vs Syracuse | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 | 22 | |
| Wk 7 | W 34-10vs Stanford | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 8 | W 35-24@ Clemson | 11 | 16 | 1.5 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 9 | L 12-13@ Wake Forest | 13 | 25 | 1.9 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 10 | W 26-20vs Miami | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 1 | 7 | |
| Wk 11 | W 45-13@ Boston College | 16 | 130 | 8.1 | 0 | 53 | Season-high 130 yds |
| Wk 13 | W 38-6vs Louisville | 18 | 90 | 5.0 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 14 | L 35-38@ California | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 | 14 | |
| Bowl | W 24-19vs Arizona | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 2 | 13 | |
| Total | 171 | 787 | 4.4 | 9 | 53 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022UCLA9-4HC: Chip Kelly · Run-leaning
2023UCLA8-5HC: Chip Kelly · Run-leaning
2024UCLA5-7HC: Deshaun Foster · Balanced, slow tempo
2025SMU9-4HC: Rhett Lashlee · Balanced
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 787 | #69/735 | 91st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 9 | #43/739 | 94th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.6 | #364/735 | 51st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 19 | #78/552 | 86th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 99 | #169/548 | 69th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.18 | #84/362 | 77th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 157 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 20.8% | #82/738 | 89th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 171 | #47/739 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 53 | #147/733 | 80th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 30 | #126/540 | 77th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 5.2 | #395/548 | 28th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #60/552 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 42.3% | #49/738 | 93rd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 24.7% | #77/738 | 90th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 21.8% | #77/738 | 90th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 20.8% | #124/738 | 83rd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 18.2% | #41/738 | 95th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 11.8% | #136/738 | 82nd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 4.0% | #231/738 | 69th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/256 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 60.0 | 4.5 | 0.9 |
| Road6g | 61.2 | 4.3 | 0.5 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 60.8 | 4.6 | 0.6 |
| Losses4g | 60.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 65.0 | 4.7 | 1.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 55.3 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
69Solid starter
Elite: rush tds (86th). Strength: carries (86th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.18Mid (p50–p75) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
TJ HardenSMUAnthony HankersonOregon State· 90% simJevyon DuckerTemple· 90% simCarson HansenIowa State· 88% sim
Rush TDs
Carries
Fumbles lost
Rush yards
Receptions
Long run
Rec yards
Yards / carry
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Workhorse
Built to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Chaton Mobley’s 2020 season.
Chaton Mobley
73%match
#2
Samuel Brown V
69%
#3
Ellis Merriweather
71%
#4
Seth McGowan
NFL Rd 7
70%
#5
Jeffery Pittman
70%
Matches Chaton on
Yards / carry
Weight
Receiving share
Differs from Chaton on
Class year (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Braylon Braxton's senior season at Marshall (2024).
Braylon Braxton
72%match
All-Sun Belt
#2
Jalen White
All-Sun Belt
74%
#3
Deshaun Fenwick
72%
#4
Anthony Tyus III
All-MAC
72%
#5
Phil Mafah
All-ACCNFL Rd 7
72%
Matches Braylon on
Recruiting rating
Total rush EPA (college ability)
EPA / carry (adj)
Differs from Braylon on
Rush TD rate (higher)
Weight (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Rhett Lashlee
Pass share
53.7%
460 pass / 396 run
Plays / game
65.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
5.4%
333 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Rhett Lashlee
SMU
2023
Rhett Lashlee
SMU
2024
Rhett Lashlee
SMU
2025
Rhett Lashlee
SMU
Played his entire career under Rhett Lashlee.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownLos Angeles, CA
Height6'2"
Weight220 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey27
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamSMU
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.